TLT expected-move history iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF
Every trading day after the close we record what the options market was pricing — per expiration, before the outcome was known. When an expiration passes, the outcome is written next to the original estimate. Estimates are never revised after the fact. How to read these statistics · recording since Aug 31, 2026
Comparisons resolved200
Close inside range45%
|Actual| under expected45%
Avg expected move±1.7%
Avg |actual| move2.4%
Mean abs. error1.3pt
Implied vs realized, by expiration
For each expiration: the amber outline is the expected move recorded closest to expiry; the solid bar is what the stock actually did. Signed values are printed beneath the bars.
expected (recorded)actual
Currently recorded (awaiting outcome)
| Snapshot | Expires | DTE | Spot then | Expected move | Range | Method |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 19 | Oct 19 | 0 | 79.58 | ±0.1% | 79.54–79.62 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 16 | Oct 19 | 3 | 80.05 | ±0.8% | 79.41–80.69 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 14 | Oct 19 | 5 | 78.79 | ±1.2% | 77.88–79.70 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 13 | Oct 19 | 6 | 78.38 | ±1.3% | 77.38–79.39 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 09 | Oct 19 | 10 | 77.97 | ±1.5% | 76.77–79.17 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 08 | Oct 19 | 11 | 77.83 | ±1.8% | 76.41–79.25 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 07 | Oct 19 | 12 | 77.12 | ±1.9% | 75.64–78.60 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 06 | Oct 19 | 13 | 77.25 | ±2.0% | 75.72–78.78 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 05 | Oct 19 | 14 | 77.16 | ±2.3% | 75.36–78.97 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 19 | Oct 21 | 2 | 79.58 | ±0.8% | 78.96–80.20 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 16 | Oct 21 | 5 | 80.05 | ±1.2% | 79.09–81.00 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 14 | Oct 21 | 7 | 78.79 | ±1.4% | 77.68–79.90 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 13 | Oct 21 | 8 | 78.38 | ±1.5% | 77.19–79.56 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 09 | Oct 21 | 12 | 77.97 | ±1.8% | 76.60–79.34 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 08 | Oct 21 | 13 | 77.83 | ±2.1% | 76.23–79.43 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 07 | Oct 21 | 14 | 77.12 | ±2.1% | 75.47–78.78 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 06 | Oct 21 | 15 | 77.25 | ±2.2% | 75.56–78.94 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 19 | Oct 23 | 4 | 79.58 | ±1.1% | 78.69–80.47 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 16 | Oct 23 | 7 | 80.05 | ±1.5% | 78.81–81.28 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 14 | Oct 23 | 9 | 78.79 | ±1.7% | 77.48–80.10 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 13 | Oct 23 | 10 | 78.38 | ±1.7% | 77.01–79.75 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 09 | Oct 23 | 14 | 77.97 | ±2.0% | 76.42–79.51 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 08 | Oct 23 | 15 | 77.83 | ±2.3% | 76.06–79.59 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 07 | Oct 23 | 16 | 77.12 | ±2.4% | 75.28–78.95 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 06 | Oct 23 | 17 | 77.25 | ±2.4% | 75.39–79.11 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 05 | Oct 23 | 18 | 77.16 | ±2.8% | 75.01–79.31 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 02 | Oct 23 | 21 | 77.54 | ±2.9% | 75.28–79.80 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 01 | Oct 23 | 22 | 77.75 | ±3.2% | 75.25–80.25 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 23 | Oct 23 | 30 | 81.74 | ±2.5% | 79.69–83.80 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 22 | Oct 23 | 31 | 81.64 | ±2.5% | 79.59–83.70 | em-1.0 |
Resolved snapshots
| Snapshot | Expired | Expected | Actual | Inside range? | Spot → close |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 16, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±0.1% | +0.0% | inside | 80.05 → 80.05 |
| Oct 14, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±1.0% | +1.6% | outside | 78.79 → 80.05 |
| Oct 13, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±1.1% | +2.1% | outside | 78.38 → 80.05 |
| Oct 09, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±1.4% | +2.7% | outside | 77.97 → 80.05 |
| Oct 08, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±1.7% | +2.9% | outside | 77.83 → 80.05 |
| Oct 07, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±1.8% | +3.8% | outside | 77.12 → 80.05 |
| Oct 06, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±1.9% | +3.6% | outside | 77.25 → 80.05 |
| Oct 05, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±2.2% | +3.7% | outside | 77.16 → 80.05 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±2.4% | +3.2% | outside | 77.54 → 80.05 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±2.7% | +3.0% | outside | 77.75 → 80.05 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±2.2% | -2.1% | inside | 81.74 → 80.05 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±2.2% | -1.9% | inside | 81.64 → 80.05 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±2.3% | -2.2% | inside | 81.81 → 80.05 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±2.5% | -1.6% | inside | 81.32 → 80.05 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±2.4% | -2.0% | inside | 81.68 → 80.05 |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±2.8% | -1.0% | inside | 80.88 → 80.05 |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±3.1% | -0.8% | inside | 80.73 → 80.05 |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±2.9% | -1.0% | inside | 80.86 → 80.05 |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±2.7% | -1.1% | inside | 80.92 → 80.05 |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±3.2% | -0.9% | inside | 80.74 → 80.05 |
| Sep 09, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±2.8% | -2.0% | inside | 81.71 → 80.05 |
| Sep 08, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±2.9% | -2.5% | inside | 82.14 → 80.05 |
| Sep 07, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±2.8% | -2.7% | inside | 82.24 → 80.05 |
| Sep 04, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±2.8% | -2.6% | inside | 82.19 → 80.05 |
| Sep 03, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±3.0% | -2.5% | inside | 82.13 → 80.05 |
| Sep 02, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±3.1% | -2.3% | inside | 81.92 → 80.05 |
| Sep 01, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±3.2% | -2.1% | inside | 81.80 → 80.05 |
| Aug 31, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±3.1% | -2.9% | inside | 82.46 → 80.05 |
| Oct 14, 2026 | Oct 14 | ±0.3% | +0.1% | inside | 78.79 → 78.89 |
| Oct 13, 2026 | Oct 14 | ±0.7% | +0.7% | inside | 78.38 → 78.89 |
| Oct 09, 2026 | Oct 14 | ±1.0% | +1.2% | outside | 77.97 → 78.89 |
| Oct 08, 2026 | Oct 14 | ±1.4% | +1.4% | inside | 77.83 → 78.89 |
| Oct 07, 2026 | Oct 14 | ±1.5% | +2.3% | outside | 77.12 → 78.89 |
| Oct 06, 2026 | Oct 14 | ±1.6% | +2.1% | outside | 77.25 → 78.89 |
| Oct 05, 2026 | Oct 14 | ±1.9% | +2.2% | outside | 77.16 → 78.89 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 14 | ±2.1% | +1.7% | inside | 77.54 → 78.89 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 14 | ±2.4% | +1.5% | inside | 77.75 → 78.89 |
| Oct 09, 2026 | Oct 12 | ±0.6% | +0.1% | inside | 77.97 → 78.05 |
| Oct 08, 2026 | Oct 12 | ±1.0% | +0.3% | inside | 77.83 → 78.05 |
| Oct 07, 2026 | Oct 12 | ±1.1% | +1.2% | outside | 77.12 → 78.05 |
| Oct 06, 2026 | Oct 12 | ±1.2% | +1.0% | inside | 77.25 → 78.05 |
| Oct 05, 2026 | Oct 12 | ±1.5% | +1.2% | inside | 77.16 → 78.05 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 12 | ±1.7% | +0.7% | inside | 77.54 → 78.05 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 12 | ±2.1% | +0.4% | inside | 77.75 → 78.05 |
| Oct 09, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±0.1% | +0.0% | inside | 77.97 → 77.98 |
| Oct 08, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±0.8% | +0.2% | inside | 77.83 → 77.98 |
| Oct 07, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±0.9% | +1.1% | outside | 77.12 → 77.98 |
| Oct 06, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±1.1% | +0.9% | inside | 77.25 → 77.98 |
| Oct 05, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±1.4% | +1.1% | inside | 77.16 → 77.98 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±1.6% | +0.6% | inside | 77.54 → 77.98 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±2.0% | +0.3% | inside | 77.75 → 77.98 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±1.9% | -4.6% | outside | 81.74 → 77.98 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±1.9% | -4.5% | outside | 81.64 → 77.98 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±2.0% | -4.7% | outside | 81.81 → 77.98 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±2.2% | -4.1% | outside | 81.32 → 77.98 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±2.1% | -4.5% | outside | 81.68 → 77.98 |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±2.4% | -3.6% | outside | 80.88 → 77.98 |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±2.8% | -3.4% | outside | 80.73 → 77.98 |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±2.6% | -3.6% | outside | 80.86 → 77.98 |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±2.4% | -3.6% | outside | 80.92 → 77.98 |
Outcomes compare the recorded range with the closing price on expiration day. Method version shown per row where it differs; current: em-1.0.