TGT histórico de movimento esperado Target Corporation
A cada dia útil, após o fechamento, registramos o que o mercado de opções estava precificando — por expiração, antes de o resultado ser conhecido. Quando uma expiração passa, o resultado é registrado ao lado da estimativa original. As estimativas nunca são revisadas após o fato. Como interpretar estas estatísticas · registrando desde Aug 31, 2026
Comparações resolvidas93
Fechar dentro do intervalo91%
|Real| abaixo do esperado91%
Movimento esperado médio±4.3%
Movimento |real| médio2.4%
Erro médio absoluto2.1pt
Implícita vs. realizada, por vencimento
Para cada expiração: o contorno âmbar é o movimento esperado registrado mais próximo do vencimento; a barra sólida é o que a ação realmente fez. Os valores com sinal aparecem abaixo das barras.
esperado (registrado)real
Atualmente registado (a aguardar resultado)
| Snapshot | Expira | DTE | Spot na época | Movimento esperado | Intervalo | Método |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 16 | Oct 16 | 0 | 154.26 | ±0.5% | 153.54–154.97 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 14 | Oct 16 | 2 | 155.31 | ±2.0% | 152.14–158.48 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 13 | Oct 16 | 3 | 151.69 | ±2.4% | 148.09–155.31 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 09 | Oct 16 | 7 | 154.48 | ±3.0% | 149.92–159.04 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 08 | Oct 16 | 8 | 154.51 | ±3.5% | 149.04–159.97 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 07 | Oct 16 | 9 | 151.65 | ±3.6% | 146.14–157.16 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 06 | Oct 16 | 10 | 154.17 | ±3.8% | 148.35–159.99 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 05 | Oct 16 | 11 | 152.66 | ±4.3% | 146.14–159.18 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 02 | Oct 16 | 14 | 155.80 | ±4.3% | 149.04–162.56 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 01 | Oct 16 | 15 | 156.29 | ±4.9% | 148.71–163.88 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 23 | Oct 16 | 23 | 158.84 | ±6.0% | 149.34–168.34 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 22 | Oct 16 | 24 | 158.84 | ±6.0% | 149.34–168.34 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 21 | Oct 16 | 25 | 157.90 | ±6.1% | 148.32–167.47 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 18 | Oct 16 | 28 | 158.15 | ±6.3% | 148.15–168.15 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 17 | Oct 16 | 29 | 159.57 | ±6.8% | 148.80–170.35 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 16 | Oct 16 | 30 | 154.76 | ±6.9% | 144.09–165.44 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 15 | Oct 16 | 31 | 154.01 | ±7.1% | 143.11–164.91 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 14 | Oct 16 | 32 | 158.23 | ±7.1% | 147.06–169.41 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 11 | Oct 16 | 35 | 156.10 | ±7.3% | 144.72–167.47 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 10 | Oct 16 | 36 | 155.62 | ±7.5% | 144.02–167.22 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 09 | Oct 16 | 37 | 158.17 | ±7.6% | 146.15–170.19 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 08 | Oct 16 | 38 | 163.73 | ±7.9% | 150.75–176.70 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 07 | Oct 16 | 39 | 163.73 | ±7.9% | 150.75–176.70 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 04 | Oct 16 | 42 | 164.90 | ±7.9% | 151.92–177.87 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 03 | Oct 16 | 43 | 164.16 | ±8.0% | 150.96–177.35 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 02 | Oct 16 | 44 | 163.25 | ±8.1% | 149.98–176.53 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 01 | Oct 16 | 45 | 163.84 | ±8.6% | 149.82–177.87 | em-1.0 |
| Aug 31 | Oct 16 | 46 | 160.44 | ±8.3% | 147.07–173.82 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 16 | Oct 23 | 7 | 154.26 | ±3.2% | 149.31–159.21 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 14 | Oct 23 | 9 | 155.31 | ±3.8% | 149.35–161.27 | em-1.0 |
Snapshots encerrados
| Snapshot | Expirado | Esperado | Real | Dentro do intervalo? | Spot → fechamento |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 09, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±0.7% | -0.5% | dentro | 154.48 → 153.64 |
| Oct 08, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±1.4% | -0.6% | dentro | 154.51 → 153.64 |
| Oct 07, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±2.1% | +1.3% | dentro | 151.65 → 153.64 |
| Oct 06, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±2.3% | -0.3% | dentro | 154.17 → 153.64 |
| Oct 05, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±2.8% | +0.6% | dentro | 152.66 → 153.64 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±2.9% | -1.4% | dentro | 155.80 → 153.64 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±3.5% | -1.7% | dentro | 156.29 → 153.64 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±5.1% | -3.3% | dentro | 158.84 → 153.64 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±5.1% | -3.3% | dentro | 158.84 → 153.64 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±5.2% | -2.7% | dentro | 157.90 → 153.64 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±5.5% | -2.9% | dentro | 158.15 → 153.64 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±5.9% | -3.7% | dentro | 159.57 → 153.64 |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±6.0% | -0.7% | dentro | 154.76 → 153.64 |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±6.2% | -0.2% | dentro | 154.01 → 153.64 |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±6.4% | -2.9% | dentro | 158.23 → 153.64 |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±6.5% | -1.6% | dentro | 156.10 → 153.64 |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±6.6% | -1.3% | dentro | 155.62 → 153.64 |
| Sep 09, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±6.7% | -2.9% | dentro | 158.17 → 153.64 |
| Sep 08, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±7.2% | -6.2% | dentro | 163.73 → 153.64 |
| Sep 07, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±7.2% | -6.2% | dentro | 163.73 → 153.64 |
| Sep 04, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±7.1% | -6.8% | dentro | 164.90 → 153.64 |
| Sep 03, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±7.2% | -6.4% | dentro | 164.16 → 153.64 |
| Sep 02, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±7.4% | -5.9% | dentro | 163.25 → 153.64 |
| Sep 01, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±7.8% | -6.2% | dentro | 163.84 → 153.64 |
| Aug 31, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±7.7% | -4.2% | dentro | 160.44 → 153.64 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±0.7% | +0.1% | dentro | 155.80 → 156.00 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±1.5% | -0.2% | dentro | 156.29 → 156.00 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±3.9% | -1.8% | dentro | 158.84 → 156.00 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±3.9% | -1.8% | dentro | 158.84 → 156.00 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±4.0% | -1.2% | dentro | 157.90 → 156.00 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±4.3% | -1.4% | dentro | 158.15 → 156.00 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±4.8% | -2.2% | dentro | 159.57 → 156.00 |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±5.1% | +0.8% | dentro | 154.76 → 156.00 |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±5.3% | +1.3% | dentro | 154.01 → 156.00 |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±5.5% | -1.4% | dentro | 158.23 → 156.00 |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±5.6% | -0.1% | dentro | 156.10 → 156.00 |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±5.7% | +0.2% | dentro | 155.62 → 156.00 |
| Sep 09, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±5.8% | -1.4% | dentro | 158.17 → 156.00 |
| Sep 08, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±6.3% | -4.7% | dentro | 163.73 → 156.00 |
| Sep 07, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±6.3% | -4.7% | dentro | 163.73 → 156.00 |
| Sep 04, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±6.1% | -5.4% | dentro | 164.90 → 156.00 |
| Sep 03, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±6.4% | -5.0% | dentro | 164.16 → 156.00 |
| Sep 02, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±6.7% | -4.4% | dentro | 163.25 → 156.00 |
| Sep 01, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±6.9% | -4.8% | dentro | 163.84 → 156.00 |
| Aug 31, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±6.7% | -2.8% | dentro | 160.44 → 156.00 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±2.4% | -0.9% | dentro | 158.84 → 157.45 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±2.4% | -0.9% | dentro | 158.84 → 157.45 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±2.5% | -0.3% | dentro | 157.90 → 157.45 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±3.0% | -0.4% | dentro | 158.15 → 157.45 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±3.5% | -1.3% | dentro | 159.57 → 157.45 |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±3.9% | +1.7% | dentro | 154.76 → 157.45 |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±4.2% | +2.2% | dentro | 154.01 → 157.45 |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±4.3% | -0.5% | dentro | 158.23 → 157.45 |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±4.4% | +0.9% | dentro | 156.10 → 157.45 |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±4.7% | +1.2% | dentro | 155.62 → 157.45 |
| Sep 09, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±4.9% | -0.5% | dentro | 158.17 → 157.45 |
| Sep 08, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±5.3% | -3.8% | dentro | 163.73 → 157.45 |
| Sep 07, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±5.3% | -3.8% | dentro | 163.73 → 157.45 |
| Sep 04, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±5.3% | -4.5% | dentro | 164.90 → 157.45 |
| Sep 03, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±5.5% | -4.1% | dentro | 164.16 → 157.45 |
Os resultados comparam o intervalo registado com o preço de fecho no dia de expiração. A versão do método é indicada por linha quando difere; atual: em-1.0.