STLD histórico de movimento esperado Steel Dynamics, Inc.
A cada dia útil, após o fechamento, registramos o que o mercado de opções estava precificando — por expiração, antes de o resultado ser conhecido. Quando uma expiração passa, o resultado é registrado ao lado da estimativa original. As estimativas nunca são revisadas após o fato. Como interpretar estas estatísticas · registrando desde Aug 31, 2026
Comparações resolvidas43
Fechar dentro do intervalo100%
|Real| abaixo do esperado100%
Movimento esperado médio±7.4%
Movimento |real| médio1.9%
Erro médio absoluto5.5pt
Implícita vs. realizada, por vencimento
Para cada expiração: o contorno âmbar é o movimento esperado registrado mais próximo do vencimento; a barra sólida é o que a ação realmente fez. Os valores com sinal aparecem abaixo das barras.
esperado (registrado)real
Atualmente registado (a aguardar resultado)
| Snapshot | Expira | DTE | Spot na época | Movimento esperado | Intervalo | Método |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 19 | Nov 20 | 32 | 244.20 | ±10.1% | 219.50–268.90 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 16 | Nov 20 | 35 | 240.54 | ±10.7% | 214.89–266.19 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 14 | Nov 20 | 37 | 242.92 | ±10.5% | 217.32–268.52 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 13 | Nov 20 | 38 | 240.63 | ±10.0% | 216.68–264.58 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 09 | Nov 20 | 42 | 238.38 | ±11.3% | 211.48–265.28 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 08 | Nov 20 | 43 | 234.17 | ±11.5% | 207.32–261.02 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 07 | Nov 20 | 44 | 234.09 | ±11.5% | 207.09–261.09 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 06 | Nov 20 | 45 | 238.67 | ±11.6% | 210.97–266.37 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 05 | Nov 20 | 46 | 241.04 | ±11.7% | 212.94–269.14 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 02 | Nov 20 | 49 | 231.99 | ±11.6% | 205.14–258.84 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 01 | Nov 20 | 50 | 226.17 | ±11.7% | 199.62–252.72 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 23 | Nov 20 | 58 | 229.99 | ±13.4% | 199.19–260.79 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 22 | Nov 20 | 59 | 229.99 | ±13.4% | 199.19–260.79 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 21 | Nov 20 | 60 | 235.26 | ±13.6% | 203.21–267.31 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 18 | Nov 20 | 63 | 234.42 | ±15.3% | 198.52–270.32 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 17 | Nov 20 | 64 | 239.50 | ±13.8% | 206.35–272.65 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 16 | Nov 20 | 65 | 239.50 | ±13.8% | 206.35–272.65 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 15 | Nov 20 | 66 | 237.79 | ±14.4% | 203.54–272.05 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 14 | Nov 20 | 67 | 237.79 | ±14.4% | 203.54–272.05 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 11 | Nov 20 | 70 | 237.08 | ±14.7% | 202.33–271.83 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 10 | Nov 20 | 71 | 237.08 | ±14.7% | 202.33–271.83 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 09 | Nov 20 | 72 | 240.69 | ±14.7% | 205.39–275.99 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 08 | Nov 20 | 73 | 242.06 | ±14.9% | 205.91–278.21 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 07 | Nov 20 | 74 | 242.06 | ±14.9% | 205.91–278.21 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 04 | Nov 20 | 77 | 243.15 | ±14.7% | 207.40–278.90 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 03 | Nov 20 | 78 | 248.01 | ±14.9% | 211.01–285.01 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 02 | Nov 20 | 79 | 247.22 | ±14.9% | 210.47–283.97 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 01 | Nov 20 | 80 | 232.62 | ±15.7% | 196.02–269.22 | em-1.0 |
| Aug 31 | Nov 20 | 81 | 234.66 | ±15.7% | 197.91–271.42 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 19 | Dec 18 | 60 | 244.20 | ±13.0% | 212.45–275.95 | em-1.0 |
Snapshots encerrados
| Snapshot | Expirado | Esperado | Real | Dentro do intervalo? | Spot → fechamento |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 16, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±1.0% | +0.0% | dentro | 240.54 → 240.54 |
| Oct 14, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±3.0% | -1.0% | dentro | 242.92 → 240.54 |
| Oct 13, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±3.1% | -0.0% | dentro | 240.63 → 240.54 |
| Oct 09, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±4.0% | +0.9% | dentro | 238.38 → 240.54 |
| Oct 08, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±5.3% | +2.7% | dentro | 234.17 → 240.54 |
| Oct 07, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±5.1% | +2.8% | dentro | 234.09 → 240.54 |
| Oct 06, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±5.6% | +0.8% | dentro | 238.67 → 240.54 |
| Oct 05, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±5.8% | -0.2% | dentro | 241.04 → 240.54 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±6.0% | +3.7% | dentro | 231.99 → 240.54 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±6.6% | +6.4% | dentro | 226.17 → 240.54 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±8.2% | +4.6% | dentro | 229.99 → 240.54 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±8.2% | +4.6% | dentro | 229.99 → 240.54 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±8.4% | +2.2% | dentro | 235.26 → 240.54 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±11.1% | +2.6% | dentro | 234.42 → 240.54 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±9.8% | +0.4% | dentro | 239.50 → 240.54 |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±9.8% | +0.4% | dentro | 239.50 → 240.54 |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±9.9% | +1.2% | dentro | 237.79 → 240.54 |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±9.9% | +1.2% | dentro | 237.79 → 240.54 |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±10.2% | +1.5% | dentro | 237.08 → 240.54 |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±10.2% | +1.5% | dentro | 237.08 → 240.54 |
| Sep 09, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±10.1% | -0.1% | dentro | 240.69 → 240.54 |
| Sep 08, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±10.8% | -0.6% | dentro | 242.06 → 240.54 |
| Sep 07, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±10.8% | -0.6% | dentro | 242.06 → 240.54 |
| Sep 04, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±10.7% | -1.1% | dentro | 243.15 → 240.54 |
| Sep 03, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±10.9% | -3.0% | dentro | 248.01 → 240.54 |
| Sep 02, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±11.1% | -2.7% | dentro | 247.22 → 240.54 |
| Sep 01, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±11.3% | +3.4% | dentro | 232.62 → 240.54 |
| Aug 31, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±11.8% | +2.5% | dentro | 234.66 → 240.54 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Sep 18 | ±6.7% | +0.4% | dentro | 234.42 → 235.26 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Sep 18 | ±3.9% | -1.8% | dentro | 239.50 → 235.26 |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Sep 18 | ±3.9% | -1.8% | dentro | 239.50 → 235.26 |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Sep 18 | ±4.3% | -1.1% | dentro | 237.79 → 235.26 |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Sep 18 | ±4.3% | -1.1% | dentro | 237.79 → 235.26 |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Sep 18 | ±5.6% | -0.8% | dentro | 237.08 → 235.26 |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Sep 18 | ±5.6% | -0.8% | dentro | 237.08 → 235.26 |
| Sep 09, 2026 | Sep 18 | ±6.0% | -2.3% | dentro | 240.69 → 235.26 |
| Sep 08, 2026 | Sep 18 | ±6.7% | -2.8% | dentro | 242.06 → 235.26 |
| Sep 07, 2026 | Sep 18 | ±6.7% | -2.8% | dentro | 242.06 → 235.26 |
| Sep 04, 2026 | Sep 18 | ±6.9% | -3.2% | dentro | 243.15 → 235.26 |
| Sep 03, 2026 | Sep 18 | ±7.1% | -5.1% | dentro | 248.01 → 235.26 |
| Sep 02, 2026 | Sep 18 | ±6.8% | -4.8% | dentro | 247.22 → 235.26 |
| Sep 01, 2026 | Sep 18 | ±7.3% | +1.1% | dentro | 232.62 → 235.26 |
| Aug 31, 2026 | Sep 18 | ±7.8% | +0.3% | dentro | 234.66 → 235.26 |
Os resultados comparam o intervalo registado com o preço de fecho no dia de expiração. A versão do método é indicada por linha quando difere; atual: em-1.0.