SMCI 预期波动历史 Super Micro Computer, Inc.
每个交易日收盘后，我们记录期权市场对各到期日的定价——均在结果揭晓前留存。到期日过后，实际结果会附记于原始预估值旁。预估值在事后绝不修改。 如何解读这些统计数据 · 记录开始于 Aug 31, 2026
已解决的比较项121
收盘价处于区间内61%
|实际值| 低于预期值61%
平均预期波动幅度±11.0%
平均|实际|波动幅度10.6%
平均绝对误差5.1pt
隐含与已实现波动率，按到期日
每个到期日：琥珀色轮廓框为最接近到期时记录的预期涨跌幅；实心柱为股票实际涨跌幅。柱形下方标注带符号的具体数值。
预期（已记录）实际
已记录（等待结果）
| 快照 | 到期时间 | DTE | 当时现货价 | 预期涨跌幅 | 区间 | 方法 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 19 | Oct 23 | 4 | 32.24 | ±7.6% | 29.80–34.69 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 16 | Oct 23 | 7 | 31.52 | ±9.2% | 28.64–34.41 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 14 | Oct 23 | 9 | 35.66 | ±9.3% | 32.36–38.96 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 13 | Oct 23 | 10 | 39.10 | ±9.0% | 35.59–42.60 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 09 | Oct 23 | 14 | 41.81 | ±10.0% | 37.61–46.01 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 08 | Oct 23 | 15 | 42.78 | ±10.7% | 38.20–47.37 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 07 | Oct 23 | 16 | 44.82 | ±11.3% | 39.74–49.90 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 06 | Oct 23 | 17 | 43.52 | ±11.2% | 38.63–48.41 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 05 | Oct 23 | 18 | 43.21 | ±11.7% | 38.16–48.26 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 02 | Oct 23 | 21 | 43.60 | ±12.7% | 38.05–49.16 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 01 | Oct 23 | 22 | 41.89 | ±13.4% | 36.26–47.52 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 23 | Oct 23 | 30 | 41.51 | ±17.0% | 34.46–48.56 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 22 | Oct 23 | 31 | 41.50 | ±16.7% | 34.55–48.45 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 21 | Oct 23 | 32 | 41.13 | ±17.1% | 34.08–48.18 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 18 | Oct 23 | 35 | 39.07 | ±17.2% | 32.37–45.77 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 17 | Oct 23 | 36 | 40.45 | ±17.6% | 33.35–47.55 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 16 | Oct 23 | 37 | 36.85 | ±17.6% | 30.38–43.33 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 15 | Oct 23 | 38 | 35.70 | ±17.9% | 29.30–42.10 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 14 | Oct 23 | 39 | 37.03 | ±18.1% | 30.33–43.73 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 11 | Oct 23 | 42 | 39.98 | ±19.1% | 32.33–47.63 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 10 | Oct 23 | 43 | 37.34 | ±18.9% | 30.27–44.41 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 09 | Oct 23 | 44 | 38.83 | ±19.9% | 31.11–46.55 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 08 | Oct 23 | 45 | 40.19 | ±20.7% | 31.89–48.49 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 07 | Oct 23 | 46 | 39.53 | ±21.0% | 31.23–47.83 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 04 | Oct 23 | 49 | 39.52 | ±21.0% | 31.22–47.82 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 03 | Oct 23 | 50 | 37.84 | ±20.7% | 30.02–45.66 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 19 | Oct 30 | 11 | 32.24 | ±11.2% | 28.64–35.84 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 16 | Oct 30 | 14 | 31.52 | ±12.7% | 27.52–35.52 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 14 | Oct 30 | 16 | 35.66 | ±12.2% | 31.31–40.01 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 13 | Oct 30 | 17 | 39.10 | ±12.0% | 34.40–43.79 | em-1.0 |
已归档快照
| 快照 | 已到期 | 预期值 | 实际值 | 在区间内？ | 现货价 → 收盘价 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 16, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±1.3% | +0.3% | 区间内 | 31.52 → 31.63 |
| Oct 14, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±5.1% | -11.3% | 区间外 | 35.66 → 31.63 |
| Oct 13, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±5.4% | -19.1% | 区间外 | 39.10 → 31.63 |
| Oct 09, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±6.7% | -24.4% | 区间外 | 41.81 → 31.63 |
| Oct 08, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±7.9% | -26.1% | 区间外 | 42.78 → 31.63 |
| Oct 07, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±8.5% | -29.4% | 区间外 | 44.82 → 31.63 |
| Oct 06, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±8.6% | -27.3% | 区间外 | 43.52 → 31.63 |
| Oct 05, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±8.8% | -26.8% | 区间外 | 43.21 → 31.63 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±10.0% | -27.5% | 区间外 | 43.60 → 31.63 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±10.9% | -24.5% | 区间外 | 41.89 → 31.63 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±14.8% | -23.8% | 区间外 | 41.51 → 31.63 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±14.8% | -23.8% | 区间外 | 41.50 → 31.63 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±15.1% | -23.1% | 区间外 | 41.13 → 31.63 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±15.1% | -19.0% | 区间外 | 39.07 → 31.63 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±15.7% | -21.8% | 区间外 | 40.45 → 31.63 |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±15.8% | -14.2% | 区间内 | 36.85 → 31.63 |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±16.0% | -11.4% | 区间内 | 35.70 → 31.63 |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±16.3% | -14.6% | 区间内 | 37.03 → 31.63 |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±17.1% | -20.9% | 区间外 | 39.98 → 31.63 |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±17.2% | -15.3% | 区间内 | 37.34 → 31.63 |
| Sep 09, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±18.0% | -18.5% | 区间外 | 38.83 → 31.63 |
| Sep 08, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±19.0% | -21.3% | 区间外 | 40.19 → 31.63 |
| Sep 07, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±19.7% | -20.0% | 区间外 | 39.53 → 31.63 |
| Sep 04, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±19.7% | -20.0% | 区间外 | 39.52 → 31.63 |
| Sep 03, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±18.9% | -16.4% | 区间内 | 37.84 → 31.63 |
| Sep 02, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±19.2% | -14.0% | 区间内 | 36.78 → 31.63 |
| Sep 01, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±19.5% | -15.0% | 区间内 | 37.22 → 31.63 |
| Aug 31, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±19.5% | -15.3% | 区间内 | 37.36 → 31.63 |
| Oct 09, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±0.6% | +0.1% | 区间内 | 41.81 → 41.86 |
| Oct 08, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±3.3% | -2.2% | 区间内 | 42.78 → 41.86 |
| Oct 07, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±4.5% | -6.6% | 区间外 | 44.82 → 41.86 |
| Oct 06, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±5.2% | -3.8% | 区间内 | 43.52 → 41.86 |
| Oct 05, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±5.8% | -3.1% | 区间内 | 43.21 → 41.86 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±6.9% | -4.0% | 区间内 | 43.60 → 41.86 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±8.0% | -0.1% | 区间内 | 41.89 → 41.86 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±12.4% | +0.8% | 区间内 | 41.51 → 41.86 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±12.4% | +0.9% | 区间内 | 41.50 → 41.86 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±12.8% | +1.8% | 区间内 | 41.13 → 41.86 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±13.0% | +7.2% | 区间内 | 39.07 → 41.86 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±13.6% | +3.5% | 区间内 | 40.45 → 41.86 |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±13.8% | +13.6% | 区间内 | 36.85 → 41.86 |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±14.0% | +17.3% | 区间外 | 35.70 → 41.86 |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±14.2% | +13.0% | 区间内 | 37.03 → 41.86 |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±15.2% | +4.7% | 区间内 | 39.98 → 41.86 |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±15.5% | +12.1% | 区间内 | 37.34 → 41.86 |
| Sep 09, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±16.3% | +7.8% | 区间内 | 38.83 → 41.86 |
| Sep 08, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±17.2% | +4.2% | 区间内 | 40.19 → 41.86 |
| Sep 07, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±17.6% | +5.9% | 区间内 | 39.53 → 41.86 |
| Sep 04, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±17.6% | +5.9% | 区间内 | 39.52 → 41.86 |
| Sep 03, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±17.4% | +10.6% | 区间内 | 37.84 → 41.86 |
| Sep 02, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±17.5% | +13.8% | 区间内 | 36.78 → 41.86 |
| Sep 01, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±17.4% | +12.5% | 区间内 | 37.22 → 41.86 |
| Aug 31, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±18.0% | +12.0% | 区间内 | 37.36 → 41.86 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±0.5% | +0.2% | 区间内 | 43.60 → 43.69 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±3.3% | +4.3% | 区间外 | 41.89 → 43.69 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±9.7% | +5.2% | 区间内 | 41.51 → 43.69 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±9.7% | +5.3% | 区间内 | 41.50 → 43.69 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±10.2% | +6.2% | 区间内 | 41.13 → 43.69 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±10.5% | +11.8% | 区间外 | 39.07 → 43.69 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±11.3% | +8.0% | 区间内 | 40.45 → 43.69 |
结果通过比较记录的价格区间与到期日收盘价得出。各行显示所用方法版本（与当前版本不同时）；当前版本： em-1.0.