Super Micro Computer, Inc. (SMCI)
Overview · Option chain · Volatility · Expected-move history · Earnings
Cboe delayed options data · as of 06:42 UTC · Figures derived from the full chain (1,476 contracts, 17 expirations) · IV own-history percentile appears after 60 recorded days (28 so far)
Expected move · Nov 20, 2026 (32 days)
Methodology →Read from option prices: the at-the-money straddle costs this much, so the market is pricing a move of about that size in either direction by this date. It is an estimate of movement, not a prediction of direction.
Options are pricing a move of about ±21.7% (range 24.70–38.40) by Nov 20, 2026. ATM straddle: 6.85 @ strike 32 · ATM IV: 87.2%.
Probability distribution
Model & assumptions →The curve shows where a lognormal model, fed with current implied volatility, puts the range of outcomes at this expiration. Shaded: the expected-move band.
| Level | vs price | P(above)Model-estimated chance the stock finishes above a level at expiration, derived from current IV under a lognormal model with stated assumptions — an estimate, not a prediction. | P(below) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 28.39 | -10% | 61.0% | 39.0% |
| 29.97 | -5% | 52.8% | 47.2% |
| 31.55 | +0% | 44.9% | 55.1% |
| 33.13 | +5% | 37.5% | 62.5% |
| 34.70 | +10% | 30.9% | 69.1% |
Model-estimated probabilities of finishing above/below each level at expiration: estimates under stated assumptions, not predictions.
Probability explorer
Drag the slider to any level and see the model-estimated chance the stock finishes above or below it at the selected expiration.
Horizon: Nov 20, 2026 · lognormal model with zero drift: an estimate, not a prediction. Assumptions
Expirations
Open the chain →| Expires | DTEDays to expiration, in calendar days. | Implied move | ATM IV | Open int. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 23, 2026 | 4 | ±9.1% | 81.1% | 96.0K |
| Oct 30, 2026 | 11 | ±12.7% | 80.2% | 62.2K |
| Nov 06, 2026 | 18 | ±17.9% | 92.7% | 25.7K |
| Nov 13, 2026 | 25 | ±20.0% | 89.7% | 10.6K |
| Nov 20, 2026 | 32 | ±21.7% | 87.2% | 165.2K |
| Nov 27, 2026 | 39 | ±23.4% | 86.0% | 5,457 |
| Dec 18, 2026 | 60 | ±26.5% | 79.5% | 277.0K |
| Jan 15, 2027 | 88 | ±30.4% | 76.2% | 664.8K |
| Feb 19, 2027 | 123 | ±36.8% | 78.6% | 29.6K |
| Mar 19, 2027 | 151 | ±39.2% | 75.9% | 120.1K |
Open interest by strike · Nov 20
Where option positions are concentrated. Teal bars are calls, red bars are puts; the dashed line is the current price.
Largest open-interest concentrations (all expirations ≤ 60 days): 40 C · 35.0K45 C · 20.0K35 P · 17.6K37 C · 16.8K30 P · 15.7K
IV term structure
Volatility page →At-the-money implied volatility for each expiration. A hump around a date often marks a scheduled event the market is pricing.
When does open interest expire?
Implied vs realized volatility
HV from our stored daily closes (annualized); IV30 interpolated from the chain. Method
Price, last 60 sessions
Daily closes; Financial Modeling Prep.
Track record
Full history →Of 93 recorded snapshot-versus-outcome comparisons so far, the close landed inside the expected range 69.9% of the time.
Past earnings reactions
Avg |reaction| 13.7% · median 13.9% (22 reports). Two-session close-to-close window; definition
About Super Micro Computer, Inc.
Super Micro Computer, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, develops and sells server and storage solutions based on modular and open-standard architecture in the United States, Asia, Europe, and internationally. The company provides liquid and air-cooled AI servers for training and inferencing with integrated graphics processing units (GPUs) or PCIe based architectures; SuperBlade, MicroBlade, FlexTwin, GrandTwin, and BigTwin blade and multi-node systems; SuperStorage systems; Hyper, CloudDC, and WIO and rackmount systems; embedded (5G/IoT/Edge) systems; and MicroCloud server systems. It also offers workstations and networking devices; and modular server subsystems and accessories, including server boards, chassis, power supplies, and other accessories. In addition, the company provides remote system management solutions, such as Server Management suite comprising Supermicro Server Manager, Supermicro Power Management software, Supermicro Update Manager, SuperCloud Composer, and SuperDoctor 5. Further, the company identifies service requirements; creates and executes project plans; conducts verification testing; offers training; and provides technical documentation. Additionally,
Technology · Computer Hardware · NASDAQ · Profile: Financial Modeling Prep
SMCI news
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