SCHW expected-move history The Charles Schwab Corporation

Every trading day after the close we record what the options market was pricing — per expiration, before the outcome was known. When an expiration passes, the outcome is written next to the original estimate. Estimates are never revised after the fact. How to read these statistics · recording since Aug 31, 2026

Comparisons resolved121

Close inside range33%

|Actual| under expected33%

Avg expected move±4.1%

Avg |actual| move6.8%

Mean abs. error3.3pt

Implied vs realized, by expiration

For each expiration: the amber outline is the expected move recorded closest to expiry; the solid bar is what the stock actually did. Signed values are printed beneath the bars.

expected (recorded)actual

Currently recorded (awaiting outcome)

Snapshot	Expires	DTE	Spot then	Expected move	Range	Method
Oct 19	Oct 23	4	89.50	±2.4%	87.34–91.66	em-1.0
Oct 16	Oct 23	7	91.96	±2.9%	89.31–94.61	em-1.0
Oct 14	Oct 23	9	96.80	±4.8%	92.18–101.42	em-1.0
Oct 13	Oct 23	10	96.18	±5.0%	91.40–100.96	em-1.0
Oct 09	Oct 23	14	96.85	±5.2%	91.77–101.94	em-1.0
Oct 08	Oct 23	15	96.52	±5.3%	91.37–101.66	em-1.0
Oct 07	Oct 23	16	95.37	±5.7%	89.97–100.77	em-1.0
Oct 06	Oct 23	17	96.93	±5.5%	91.60–102.26	em-1.0
Oct 05	Oct 23	18	98.00	±5.5%	92.58–103.42	em-1.0
Oct 02	Oct 23	21	96.85	±6.2%	90.86–102.84	em-1.0
Oct 01	Oct 23	22	98.37	±6.1%	92.36–104.38	em-1.0
Sep 23	Oct 23	30	100.64	±7.3%	93.29–107.99	em-1.0
Sep 22	Oct 23	31	100.55	±7.3%	93.20–107.90	em-1.0
Sep 21	Oct 23	32	106.88	±6.9%	99.53–114.23	em-1.0
Sep 18	Oct 23	35	105.73	±6.8%	98.53–112.93	em-1.0
Sep 17	Oct 23	36	104.63	±7.2%	97.13–112.13	em-1.0
Sep 16	Oct 23	37	105.35	±7.4%	97.60–113.10	em-1.0
Sep 15	Oct 23	38	108.02	±7.3%	100.15–115.90	em-1.0
Sep 14	Oct 23	39	107.30	±7.5%	99.20–115.40	em-1.0
Sep 11	Oct 23	42	107.00	±7.4%	99.07–114.93	em-1.0
Sep 10	Oct 23	43	106.94	±7.5%	98.89–114.99	em-1.0
Sep 09	Oct 23	44	106.71	±7.8%	98.41–115.01	em-1.0
Sep 08	Oct 23	45	107.49	±8.0%	98.89–116.09	em-1.0
Sep 07	Oct 23	46	109.29	±7.9%	100.61–117.97	em-1.0
Sep 04	Oct 23	49	109.28	±7.8%	100.70–117.86	em-1.0
Sep 03	Oct 23	50	110.16	±7.6%	101.78–118.53	em-1.0
Oct 19	Oct 30	11	89.50	±3.7%	86.19–92.81	em-1.0
Oct 16	Oct 30	14	91.96	±3.9%	88.36–95.56	em-1.0
Oct 14	Oct 30	16	96.80	±5.5%	91.44–102.16	em-1.0
Oct 13	Oct 30	17	96.18	±5.7%	90.67–101.69	em-1.0

Resolved snapshots

Snapshot	Expired	Expected	Actual	Inside range?	Spot → close
Oct 16, 2026	Oct 16	±0.3%	+0.0%	inside	91.96 → 91.96
Oct 14, 2026	Oct 16	±4.1%	-5.0%	outside	96.80 → 91.96
Oct 13, 2026	Oct 16	±4.1%	-4.4%	outside	96.18 → 91.96
Oct 09, 2026	Oct 16	±4.4%	-5.0%	outside	96.85 → 91.96
Oct 08, 2026	Oct 16	±4.6%	-4.7%	outside	96.52 → 91.96
Oct 07, 2026	Oct 16	±4.9%	-3.6%	inside	95.37 → 91.96
Oct 06, 2026	Oct 16	±4.7%	-5.1%	outside	96.93 → 91.96
Oct 05, 2026	Oct 16	±4.9%	-6.2%	outside	98.00 → 91.96
Oct 02, 2026	Oct 16	±5.4%	-5.0%	inside	96.85 → 91.96
Oct 01, 2026	Oct 16	±5.5%	-6.5%	outside	98.37 → 91.96
Sep 23, 2026	Oct 16	±6.5%	-8.6%	outside	100.64 → 91.96
Sep 22, 2026	Oct 16	±6.5%	-8.5%	outside	100.55 → 91.96
Sep 21, 2026	Oct 16	±6.0%	-14.0%	outside	106.88 → 91.96
Sep 18, 2026	Oct 16	±6.3%	-13.0%	outside	105.73 → 91.96
Sep 17, 2026	Oct 16	±6.5%	-12.1%	outside	104.63 → 91.96
Sep 16, 2026	Oct 16	±6.2%	-12.7%	outside	105.35 → 91.96
Sep 15, 2026	Oct 16	±6.4%	-14.9%	outside	108.02 → 91.96
Sep 14, 2026	Oct 16	±6.9%	-14.3%	outside	107.30 → 91.96
Sep 11, 2026	Oct 16	±6.8%	-14.1%	outside	107.00 → 91.96
Sep 10, 2026	Oct 16	±6.9%	-14.0%	outside	106.94 → 91.96
Sep 09, 2026	Oct 16	±6.8%	-13.8%	outside	106.71 → 91.96
Sep 08, 2026	Oct 16	±7.0%	-14.4%	outside	107.49 → 91.96
Sep 07, 2026	Oct 16	±6.9%	-15.9%	outside	109.29 → 91.96
Sep 04, 2026	Oct 16	±6.8%	-15.8%	outside	109.28 → 91.96
Sep 03, 2026	Oct 16	±6.8%	-16.5%	outside	110.16 → 91.96
Sep 02, 2026	Oct 16	±7.0%	-15.1%	outside	108.36 → 91.96
Sep 01, 2026	Oct 16	±7.1%	-15.2%	outside	108.39 → 91.96
Aug 31, 2026	Oct 16	±7.1%	-16.4%	outside	109.95 → 91.96
Oct 09, 2026	Oct 09	±0.4%	-0.2%	inside	96.85 → 96.70
Oct 08, 2026	Oct 09	±1.1%	+0.2%	inside	96.52 → 96.70
Oct 07, 2026	Oct 09	±1.7%	+1.4%	inside	95.37 → 96.70
Oct 06, 2026	Oct 09	±1.8%	-0.2%	inside	96.93 → 96.70
Oct 05, 2026	Oct 09	±2.1%	-1.3%	inside	98.00 → 96.70
Oct 02, 2026	Oct 09	±2.6%	-0.2%	inside	96.85 → 96.70
Oct 01, 2026	Oct 09	±3.1%	-1.7%	inside	98.37 → 96.70
Sep 23, 2026	Oct 09	±4.7%	-3.9%	inside	100.64 → 96.70
Sep 22, 2026	Oct 09	±4.7%	-3.8%	inside	100.55 → 96.70
Sep 21, 2026	Oct 09	±4.2%	-9.5%	outside	106.88 → 96.70
Sep 18, 2026	Oct 09	±4.4%	-8.5%	outside	105.73 → 96.70
Sep 17, 2026	Oct 09	±4.8%	-7.6%	outside	104.63 → 96.70
Sep 16, 2026	Oct 09	±5.3%	-8.2%	outside	105.35 → 96.70
Sep 15, 2026	Oct 09	±5.2%	-10.5%	outside	108.02 → 96.70
Sep 14, 2026	Oct 09	±5.3%	-9.9%	outside	107.30 → 96.70
Sep 11, 2026	Oct 09	±5.5%	-9.6%	outside	107.00 → 96.70
Sep 10, 2026	Oct 09	±5.7%	-9.6%	outside	106.94 → 96.70
Sep 09, 2026	Oct 09	±5.7%	-9.4%	outside	106.71 → 96.70
Sep 08, 2026	Oct 09	±5.7%	-10.0%	outside	107.49 → 96.70
Sep 07, 2026	Oct 09	±6.0%	-11.5%	outside	109.29 → 96.70
Sep 04, 2026	Oct 09	±5.9%	-11.5%	outside	109.28 → 96.70
Sep 03, 2026	Oct 09	±5.8%	-12.2%	outside	110.16 → 96.70
Sep 02, 2026	Oct 09	±6.4%	-10.8%	outside	108.36 → 96.70
Sep 01, 2026	Oct 09	±6.3%	-10.8%	outside	108.39 → 96.70
Aug 31, 2026	Oct 09	±6.3%	-12.1%	outside	109.95 → 96.70
Oct 02, 2026	Oct 02	±0.4%	-0.2%	inside	96.85 → 96.70
Oct 01, 2026	Oct 02	±1.8%	-1.7%	inside	98.37 → 96.70
Sep 23, 2026	Oct 02	±3.7%	-3.9%	outside	100.64 → 96.70
Sep 22, 2026	Oct 02	±3.7%	-3.8%	outside	100.55 → 96.70
Sep 21, 2026	Oct 02	±3.3%	-9.5%	outside	106.88 → 96.70
Sep 18, 2026	Oct 02	±3.5%	-8.5%	outside	105.73 → 96.70
Sep 17, 2026	Oct 02	±3.9%	-7.6%	outside	104.63 → 96.70

Outcomes compare the recorded range with the closing price on expiration day. Method version shown per row where it differs; current: em-1.0.

SCHW expected-move history The Charles Schwab Corporation

Implied vs realized, by expiration

Currently recorded (awaiting outcome)

Resolved snapshots

Consumer Cyclical

ETF

Technology

Financial Services

Industrials

Consumer Defensive