PGR 预期波动历史 The Progressive Corporation
每个交易日收盘后，我们记录期权市场对各到期日的定价——均在结果揭晓前留存。到期日过后，实际结果会附记于原始预估值旁。预估值在事后绝不修改。 如何解读这些统计数据 · 记录开始于 Aug 31, 2026
已解决的比较项121
收盘价处于区间内74%
|实际值| 低于预期值74%
平均预期波动幅度±4.2%
平均|实际|波动幅度2.4%
平均绝对误差2.4pt
隐含与已实现波动率，按到期日
每个到期日：琥珀色轮廓框为最接近到期时记录的预期涨跌幅；实心柱为股票实际涨跌幅。柱形下方标注带符号的具体数值。
预期（已记录）实际
已记录（等待结果）
| 快照 | 到期时间 | DTE | 当时现货价 | 预期涨跌幅 | 区间 | 方法 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 19 | Oct 23 | 4 | 219.11 | ±2.5% | 213.71–224.51 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 16 | Oct 23 | 7 | 218.49 | ±2.8% | 212.31–224.66 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 14 | Oct 23 | 9 | 213.46 | ±3.5% | 205.96–220.96 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 13 | Oct 23 | 10 | 222.88 | ±4.7% | 212.48–233.28 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 09 | Oct 23 | 14 | 217.84 | ±4.7% | 207.69–227.99 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 08 | Oct 23 | 15 | 219.24 | ±4.7% | 208.94–229.54 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 07 | Oct 23 | 16 | 214.12 | ±4.9% | 203.67–224.57 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 06 | Oct 23 | 17 | 212.38 | ±5.1% | 201.63–223.13 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 05 | Oct 23 | 18 | 212.68 | ±4.8% | 202.38–222.98 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 02 | Oct 23 | 21 | 210.31 | ±5.3% | 199.11–221.51 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 01 | Oct 23 | 22 | 210.96 | ±5.4% | 199.56–222.36 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 23 | Oct 23 | 30 | 212.30 | ±6.5% | 198.40–226.20 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 22 | Oct 23 | 31 | 212.30 | ±6.5% | 198.40–226.20 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 21 | Oct 23 | 32 | 212.76 | ±6.3% | 199.41–226.11 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 18 | Oct 23 | 35 | 213.71 | ±6.6% | 199.71–227.71 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 17 | Oct 23 | 36 | 215.61 | ±6.9% | 200.76–230.46 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 16 | Oct 23 | 37 | 221.31 | ±7.0% | 205.86–236.76 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 15 | Oct 23 | 38 | 221.02 | ±6.9% | 205.67–236.37 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 14 | Oct 23 | 39 | 217.62 | ±7.1% | 202.07–233.17 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 11 | Oct 23 | 42 | 216.19 | ±7.4% | 200.09–232.29 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 10 | Oct 23 | 43 | 216.19 | ±7.4% | 200.09–232.29 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 09 | Oct 23 | 44 | 215.28 | ±7.4% | 199.28–231.28 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 08 | Oct 23 | 45 | 217.04 | ±7.6% | 200.59–233.50 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 07 | Oct 23 | 46 | 218.95 | ±7.4% | 202.75–235.15 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 04 | Oct 23 | 49 | 222.00 | ±7.9% | 204.50–239.50 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 03 | Oct 23 | 50 | 224.26 | ±7.6% | 207.26–241.26 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 19 | Oct 30 | 11 | 219.11 | ±3.6% | 211.31–226.91 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 16 | Oct 30 | 14 | 218.49 | ±4.1% | 209.54–227.44 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 14 | Oct 30 | 16 | 213.46 | ±4.3% | 204.21–222.71 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 13 | Oct 30 | 17 | 222.88 | ±5.2% | 211.18–234.58 | em-1.0 |
已归档快照
| 快照 | 已到期 | 预期值 | 实际值 | 在区间内？ | 现货价 → 收盘价 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 16, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±0.5% | +0.0% | 区间内 | 218.49 → 218.49 |
| Oct 14, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±2.0% | +2.4% | 区间外 | 213.46 → 218.49 |
| Oct 13, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±3.7% | -2.0% | 区间内 | 222.88 → 218.49 |
| Oct 09, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±3.6% | +0.3% | 区间内 | 217.84 → 218.49 |
| Oct 08, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±3.9% | -0.3% | 区间内 | 219.24 → 218.49 |
| Oct 07, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±4.0% | +2.0% | 区间内 | 214.12 → 218.49 |
| Oct 06, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±4.1% | +2.9% | 区间内 | 212.38 → 218.49 |
| Oct 05, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±4.0% | +2.7% | 区间内 | 212.68 → 218.49 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±4.2% | +3.9% | 区间内 | 210.31 → 218.49 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±4.6% | +3.6% | 区间内 | 210.96 → 218.49 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±5.6% | +2.9% | 区间内 | 212.30 → 218.49 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±5.6% | +2.9% | 区间内 | 212.30 → 218.49 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±5.6% | +2.7% | 区间内 | 212.76 → 218.49 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±6.4% | +2.2% | 区间内 | 213.71 → 218.49 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±6.2% | +1.3% | 区间内 | 215.61 → 218.49 |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±6.2% | -1.3% | 区间内 | 221.31 → 218.49 |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±6.3% | -1.1% | 区间内 | 221.02 → 218.49 |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±6.3% | +0.4% | 区间内 | 217.62 → 218.49 |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±6.7% | +1.1% | 区间内 | 216.19 → 218.49 |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±6.7% | +1.1% | 区间内 | 216.19 → 218.49 |
| Sep 09, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±6.8% | +1.5% | 区间内 | 215.28 → 218.49 |
| Sep 08, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±7.2% | +0.7% | 区间内 | 217.04 → 218.49 |
| Sep 07, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±7.1% | -0.2% | 区间内 | 218.95 → 218.49 |
| Sep 04, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±7.3% | -1.6% | 区间内 | 222.00 → 218.49 |
| Sep 03, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±7.2% | -2.6% | 区间内 | 224.26 → 218.49 |
| Sep 02, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±7.2% | -0.9% | 区间内 | 220.54 → 218.49 |
| Sep 01, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±7.7% | +0.2% | 区间内 | 218.08 → 218.49 |
| Aug 31, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±7.7% | +0.7% | 区间内 | 217.03 → 218.49 |
| Oct 09, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±0.6% | -0.2% | 区间内 | 217.84 → 217.43 |
| Oct 08, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±1.8% | -0.8% | 区间内 | 219.24 → 217.43 |
| Oct 07, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±1.6% | +1.5% | 区间内 | 214.12 → 217.43 |
| Oct 06, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±2.1% | +2.4% | 区间外 | 212.38 → 217.43 |
| Oct 05, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±2.2% | +2.2% | 区间外 | 212.68 → 217.43 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±2.5% | +3.4% | 区间外 | 210.31 → 217.43 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±2.9% | +3.1% | 区间外 | 210.96 → 217.43 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±4.2% | +2.4% | 区间内 | 212.30 → 217.43 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±4.2% | +2.4% | 区间内 | 212.30 → 217.43 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±4.2% | +2.2% | 区间内 | 212.76 → 217.43 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±4.5% | +1.7% | 区间内 | 213.71 → 217.43 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±4.9% | +0.8% | 区间内 | 215.61 → 217.43 |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±5.2% | -1.8% | 区间内 | 221.31 → 217.43 |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±5.3% | -1.6% | 区间内 | 221.02 → 217.43 |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±5.5% | -0.1% | 区间内 | 217.62 → 217.43 |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±5.8% | +0.6% | 区间内 | 216.19 → 217.43 |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±5.8% | +0.6% | 区间内 | 216.19 → 217.43 |
| Sep 09, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±5.9% | +1.0% | 区间内 | 215.28 → 217.43 |
| Sep 08, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±5.9% | +0.2% | 区间内 | 217.04 → 217.43 |
| Sep 07, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±6.1% | -0.7% | 区间内 | 218.95 → 217.43 |
| Sep 04, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±6.4% | -2.1% | 区间内 | 222.00 → 217.43 |
| Sep 03, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±6.1% | -3.0% | 区间内 | 224.26 → 217.43 |
| Sep 02, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±6.3% | -1.4% | 区间内 | 220.54 → 217.43 |
| Sep 01, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±6.6% | -0.3% | 区间内 | 218.08 → 217.43 |
| Aug 31, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±7.0% | +0.2% | 区间内 | 217.03 → 217.43 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±0.4% | +0.0% | 区间内 | 210.31 → 210.31 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±1.5% | -0.3% | 区间内 | 210.96 → 210.31 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±3.3% | -0.9% | 区间内 | 212.30 → 210.31 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±3.3% | -0.9% | 区间内 | 212.30 → 210.31 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±3.3% | -1.2% | 区间内 | 212.76 → 210.31 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±3.7% | -1.6% | 区间内 | 213.71 → 210.31 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±4.0% | -2.5% | 区间内 | 215.61 → 210.31 |
结果通过比较记录的价格区间与到期日收盘价得出。各行显示所用方法版本（与当前版本不同时）；当前版本： em-1.0.