OKTA 预期波动历史 Okta, Inc.
每个交易日收盘后，我们记录期权市场对各到期日的定价——均在结果揭晓前留存。到期日过后，实际结果会附记于原始预估值旁。预估值在事后绝不修改。 如何解读这些统计数据 · 记录开始于 Aug 31, 2026
已解决的比较项121
收盘价处于区间内44%
|实际值| 低于预期值44%
平均预期波动幅度±8.6%
平均|实际|波动幅度12.3%
平均绝对误差7.0pt
隐含与已实现波动率，按到期日
每个到期日：琥珀色轮廓框为最接近到期时记录的预期涨跌幅；实心柱为股票实际涨跌幅。柱形下方标注带符号的具体数值。
预期（已记录）实际
已记录（等待结果）
| 快照 | 到期时间 | DTE | 当时现货价 | 预期涨跌幅 | 区间 | 方法 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 19 | Oct 23 | 4 | 189.00 | ±5.7% | 178.22–199.78 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 16 | Oct 23 | 7 | 188.01 | ±7.6% | 173.66–202.36 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 14 | Oct 23 | 9 | 211.35 | ±7.4% | 195.65–227.05 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 13 | Oct 23 | 10 | 226.53 | ±6.8% | 211.08–241.98 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 09 | Oct 23 | 14 | 231.41 | ±8.1% | 212.71–250.11 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 08 | Oct 23 | 15 | 219.11 | ±8.6% | 200.34–237.88 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 07 | Oct 23 | 16 | 216.91 | ±8.9% | 197.59–236.24 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 06 | Oct 23 | 17 | 219.23 | ±9.4% | 198.58–239.88 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 05 | Oct 23 | 18 | 218.29 | ±9.5% | 197.64–238.94 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 02 | Oct 23 | 21 | 212.00 | ±10.3% | 190.20–233.80 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 01 | Oct 23 | 22 | 213.01 | ±11.0% | 189.56–236.46 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 23 | Oct 23 | 30 | 196.62 | ±13.2% | 170.65–222.59 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 22 | Oct 23 | 31 | 196.62 | ±13.2% | 170.65–222.59 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 21 | Oct 23 | 32 | 191.29 | ±13.1% | 166.32–216.27 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 18 | Oct 23 | 35 | 183.89 | ±13.2% | 159.66–208.12 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 17 | Oct 23 | 36 | 192.05 | ±13.8% | 165.50–218.60 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 16 | Oct 23 | 37 | 188.05 | ±14.5% | 160.70–215.40 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 15 | Oct 23 | 38 | 190.45 | ±14.9% | 162.05–218.85 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 14 | Oct 23 | 39 | 189.20 | ±15.3% | 160.22–218.18 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 11 | Oct 23 | 42 | 167.84 | ±14.7% | 143.24–192.44 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 10 | Oct 23 | 43 | 172.33 | ±14.8% | 146.78–197.88 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 09 | Oct 23 | 44 | 172.51 | ±14.8% | 146.94–198.09 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 08 | Oct 23 | 45 | 167.45 | ±14.8% | 142.60–192.30 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 07 | Oct 23 | 46 | 170.95 | ±15.0% | 145.30–196.60 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 04 | Oct 23 | 49 | 171.46 | ±15.2% | 145.35–197.56 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 03 | Oct 23 | 50 | 170.42 | ±15.4% | 144.19–196.65 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 19 | Oct 30 | 11 | 189.00 | ±8.4% | 173.07–204.93 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 16 | Oct 30 | 14 | 188.01 | ±10.0% | 169.24–206.78 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 14 | Oct 30 | 16 | 211.35 | ±9.7% | 190.88–231.82 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 13 | Oct 30 | 17 | 226.53 | ±9.1% | 205.85–247.21 | em-1.0 |
已归档快照
| 快照 | 已到期 | 预期值 | 实际值 | 在区间内？ | 现货价 → 收盘价 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 16, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±0.6% | -0.4% | 区间内 | 188.01 → 187.26 |
| Oct 14, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±4.1% | -11.4% | 区间外 | 211.35 → 187.26 |
| Oct 13, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±4.5% | -17.3% | 区间外 | 226.53 → 187.26 |
| Oct 09, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±5.8% | -19.1% | 区间外 | 231.41 → 187.26 |
| Oct 08, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±5.9% | -14.5% | 区间外 | 219.11 → 187.26 |
| Oct 07, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±6.7% | -13.7% | 区间外 | 216.91 → 187.26 |
| Oct 06, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±7.1% | -14.6% | 区间外 | 219.23 → 187.26 |
| Oct 05, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±7.4% | -14.2% | 区间外 | 218.29 → 187.26 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±7.9% | -11.7% | 区间外 | 212.00 → 187.26 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±9.2% | -12.1% | 区间外 | 213.01 → 187.26 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±12.2% | -4.8% | 区间内 | 196.62 → 187.26 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±12.2% | -4.8% | 区间内 | 196.62 → 187.26 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±11.7% | -2.1% | 区间内 | 191.29 → 187.26 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±11.2% | +1.8% | 区间内 | 183.89 → 187.26 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±12.5% | -2.5% | 区间内 | 192.05 → 187.26 |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±13.1% | -0.4% | 区间内 | 188.05 → 187.26 |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±13.8% | -1.7% | 区间内 | 190.45 → 187.26 |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±14.0% | -1.0% | 区间内 | 189.20 → 187.26 |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±13.0% | +11.6% | 区间内 | 167.84 → 187.26 |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±13.6% | +8.7% | 区间内 | 172.33 → 187.26 |
| Sep 09, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±13.8% | +8.6% | 区间内 | 172.51 → 187.26 |
| Sep 08, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±13.5% | +11.8% | 区间内 | 167.45 → 187.26 |
| Sep 07, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±14.0% | +9.5% | 区间内 | 170.95 → 187.26 |
| Sep 04, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±13.8% | +9.2% | 区间内 | 171.46 → 187.26 |
| Sep 03, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±14.3% | +9.9% | 区间内 | 170.42 → 187.26 |
| Sep 02, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±14.6% | +16.5% | 区间外 | 160.75 → 187.26 |
| Sep 01, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±15.2% | +13.8% | 区间内 | 164.51 → 187.26 |
| Aug 31, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±14.8% | +8.7% | 区间内 | 172.23 → 187.26 |
| Oct 09, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±0.4% | +0.3% | 区间内 | 231.41 → 232.13 |
| Oct 08, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±2.5% | +5.9% | 区间外 | 219.11 → 232.13 |
| Oct 07, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±3.4% | +7.0% | 区间外 | 216.91 → 232.13 |
| Oct 06, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±4.3% | +5.9% | 区间外 | 219.23 → 232.13 |
| Oct 05, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±4.9% | +6.3% | 区间外 | 218.29 → 232.13 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±5.8% | +9.5% | 区间外 | 212.00 → 232.13 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±6.5% | +9.0% | 区间外 | 213.01 → 232.13 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±10.0% | +18.1% | 区间外 | 196.62 → 232.13 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±10.0% | +18.1% | 区间外 | 196.62 → 232.13 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±10.0% | +21.3% | 区间外 | 191.29 → 232.13 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±10.0% | +26.2% | 区间外 | 183.89 → 232.13 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±10.8% | +20.9% | 区间外 | 192.05 → 232.13 |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±11.4% | +23.4% | 区间外 | 188.05 → 232.13 |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±12.0% | +21.9% | 区间外 | 190.45 → 232.13 |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±12.5% | +22.7% | 区间外 | 189.20 → 232.13 |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±11.7% | +38.3% | 区间外 | 167.84 → 232.13 |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±12.3% | +34.7% | 区间外 | 172.33 → 232.13 |
| Sep 09, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±12.3% | +34.6% | 区间外 | 172.51 → 232.13 |
| Sep 08, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±12.2% | +38.6% | 区间外 | 167.45 → 232.13 |
| Sep 07, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±12.5% | +35.8% | 区间外 | 170.95 → 232.13 |
| Sep 04, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±12.5% | +35.4% | 区间外 | 171.46 → 232.13 |
| Sep 03, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±12.9% | +36.2% | 区间外 | 170.42 → 232.13 |
| Sep 02, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±13.6% | +44.4% | 区间外 | 160.75 → 232.13 |
| Sep 01, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±13.5% | +41.1% | 区间外 | 164.51 → 232.13 |
| Aug 31, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±13.7% | +34.8% | 区间外 | 172.23 → 232.13 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±0.6% | -0.2% | 区间内 | 212.00 → 211.49 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±2.8% | -0.7% | 区间内 | 213.01 → 211.49 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±7.8% | +7.6% | 区间内 | 196.62 → 211.49 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±7.8% | +7.6% | 区间内 | 196.62 → 211.49 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±7.9% | +10.6% | 区间外 | 191.29 → 211.49 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±8.0% | +15.0% | 区间外 | 183.89 → 211.49 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±9.2% | +10.1% | 区间外 | 192.05 → 211.49 |
结果通过比较记录的价格区间与到期日收盘价得出。各行显示所用方法版本（与当前版本不同时）；当前版本： em-1.0.