NOW 预期波动历史 ServiceNow, Inc.
每个交易日收盘后，我们记录期权市场对各到期日的定价——均在结果揭晓前留存。到期日过后，实际结果会附记于原始预估值旁。预估值在事后绝不修改。 如何解读这些统计数据 · 记录开始于 Aug 31, 2026
已解决的比较项121
收盘价处于区间内94%
|实际值| 低于预期值94%
平均预期波动幅度±8.3%
平均|实际|波动幅度3.2%
平均绝对误差5.2pt
隐含与已实现波动率，按到期日
每个到期日：琥珀色轮廓框为最接近到期时记录的预期涨跌幅；实心柱为股票实际涨跌幅。柱形下方标注带符号的具体数值。
预期（已记录）实际
已记录（等待结果）
| 快照 | 到期时间 | DTE | 当时现货价 | 预期涨跌幅 | 区间 | 方法 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 19 | Oct 23 | 4 | 145.00 | ±4.9% | 137.95–152.05 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 16 | Oct 23 | 7 | 140.90 | ±6.1% | 132.35–149.45 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 14 | Oct 23 | 9 | 139.30 | ±6.8% | 129.78–148.82 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 13 | Oct 23 | 10 | 138.30 | ±6.9% | 128.72–147.88 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 09 | Oct 23 | 14 | 140.86 | ±7.3% | 130.63–151.09 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 08 | Oct 23 | 15 | 139.59 | ±8.1% | 128.26–150.91 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 07 | Oct 23 | 16 | 138.06 | ±8.1% | 126.91–149.21 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 06 | Oct 23 | 17 | 137.45 | ±8.5% | 125.83–149.07 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 05 | Oct 23 | 18 | 136.06 | ±8.7% | 124.21–147.91 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 02 | Oct 23 | 21 | 134.44 | ±9.2% | 122.06–146.81 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 01 | Oct 23 | 22 | 137.30 | ±9.7% | 124.00–150.60 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 23 | Oct 23 | 30 | 136.86 | ±13.0% | 119.03–154.69 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 22 | Oct 23 | 31 | 137.05 | ±13.0% | 119.22–154.88 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 21 | Oct 23 | 32 | 137.65 | ±13.5% | 119.08–156.23 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 18 | Oct 23 | 35 | 136.03 | ±13.1% | 118.20–153.85 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 17 | Oct 23 | 36 | 138.88 | ±13.6% | 119.93–157.83 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 16 | Oct 23 | 37 | 139.81 | ±14.3% | 119.83–159.78 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 15 | Oct 23 | 38 | 141.01 | ±14.7% | 120.31–161.71 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 14 | Oct 23 | 39 | 141.60 | ±14.7% | 120.83–162.38 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 11 | Oct 23 | 42 | 132.16 | ±14.8% | 112.56–151.76 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 10 | Oct 23 | 43 | 130.76 | ±15.5% | 110.48–151.03 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 09 | Oct 23 | 44 | 131.11 | ±15.6% | 110.61–151.61 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 08 | Oct 23 | 45 | 134.05 | ±15.8% | 112.85–155.25 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 07 | Oct 23 | 46 | 141.24 | ±15.7% | 119.02–163.47 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 04 | Oct 23 | 49 | 141.10 | ±15.8% | 118.88–163.33 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 03 | Oct 23 | 50 | 145.03 | ±17.1% | 120.18–169.88 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 19 | Oct 30 | 11 | 145.00 | ±11.4% | 128.53–161.47 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 16 | Oct 30 | 14 | 140.90 | ±12.2% | 123.67–158.12 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 14 | Oct 30 | 16 | 139.30 | ±12.3% | 122.12–156.47 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 13 | Oct 30 | 17 | 138.30 | ±12.1% | 121.58–155.03 | em-1.0 |
已归档快照
| 快照 | 已到期 | 预期值 | 实际值 | 在区间内？ | 现货价 → 收盘价 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 16, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±0.6% | +0.8% | 区间外 | 140.90 → 141.97 |
| Oct 14, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±4.0% | +1.9% | 区间内 | 139.30 → 141.97 |
| Oct 13, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±4.3% | +2.7% | 区间内 | 138.30 → 141.97 |
| Oct 09, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±5.0% | +0.8% | 区间内 | 140.86 → 141.97 |
| Oct 08, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±5.9% | +1.7% | 区间内 | 139.59 → 141.97 |
| Oct 07, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±6.1% | +2.8% | 区间内 | 138.06 → 141.97 |
| Oct 06, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±6.6% | +3.3% | 区间内 | 137.45 → 141.97 |
| Oct 05, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±6.8% | +4.3% | 区间内 | 136.06 → 141.97 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±7.3% | +5.6% | 区间内 | 134.44 → 141.97 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±7.8% | +3.4% | 区间内 | 137.30 → 141.97 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±10.8% | +3.7% | 区间内 | 136.86 → 141.97 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±10.8% | +3.6% | 区间内 | 137.05 → 141.97 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±11.1% | +3.1% | 区间内 | 137.65 → 141.97 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±11.0% | +4.4% | 区间内 | 136.03 → 141.97 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±11.6% | +2.2% | 区间内 | 138.88 → 141.97 |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±12.2% | +1.5% | 区间内 | 139.81 → 141.97 |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±12.6% | +0.7% | 区间内 | 141.01 → 141.97 |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±12.6% | +0.3% | 区间内 | 141.60 → 141.97 |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±12.8% | +7.4% | 区间内 | 132.16 → 141.97 |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±13.4% | +8.6% | 区间内 | 130.76 → 141.97 |
| Sep 09, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±13.3% | +8.3% | 区间内 | 131.11 → 141.97 |
| Sep 08, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±13.8% | +5.9% | 区间内 | 134.05 → 141.97 |
| Sep 07, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±13.9% | +0.5% | 区间内 | 141.24 → 141.97 |
| Sep 04, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±13.9% | +0.6% | 区间内 | 141.10 → 141.97 |
| Sep 03, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±14.4% | -2.1% | 区间内 | 145.03 → 141.97 |
| Sep 02, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±14.1% | +1.8% | 区间内 | 139.43 → 141.97 |
| Sep 01, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±14.9% | +0.7% | 区间内 | 141.03 → 141.97 |
| Aug 31, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±15.0% | -3.9% | 区间内 | 147.74 → 141.97 |
| Oct 09, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±0.2% | +0.0% | 区间内 | 140.86 → 140.86 |
| Oct 08, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±2.2% | +0.9% | 区间内 | 139.59 → 140.86 |
| Oct 07, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±3.2% | +2.0% | 区间内 | 138.06 → 140.86 |
| Oct 06, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±4.0% | +2.5% | 区间内 | 137.45 → 140.86 |
| Oct 05, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±4.4% | +3.5% | 区间内 | 136.06 → 140.86 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±5.0% | +4.8% | 区间内 | 134.44 → 140.86 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±5.7% | +2.6% | 区间内 | 137.30 → 140.86 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±9.2% | +2.9% | 区间内 | 136.86 → 140.86 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±9.2% | +2.8% | 区间内 | 137.05 → 140.86 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±9.5% | +2.3% | 区间内 | 137.65 → 140.86 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±9.6% | +3.6% | 区间内 | 136.03 → 140.86 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±10.1% | +1.4% | 区间内 | 138.88 → 140.86 |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±10.7% | +0.8% | 区间内 | 139.81 → 140.86 |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±11.1% | -0.1% | 区间内 | 141.01 → 140.86 |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±11.2% | -0.5% | 区间内 | 141.60 → 140.86 |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±11.4% | +6.6% | 区间内 | 132.16 → 140.86 |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±12.1% | +7.7% | 区间内 | 130.76 → 140.86 |
| Sep 09, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±12.1% | +7.4% | 区间内 | 131.11 → 140.86 |
| Sep 08, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±12.5% | +5.1% | 区间内 | 134.05 → 140.86 |
| Sep 07, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±12.7% | -0.3% | 区间内 | 141.24 → 140.86 |
| Sep 04, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±12.7% | -0.2% | 区间内 | 141.10 → 140.86 |
| Sep 03, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±13.0% | -2.9% | 区间内 | 145.03 → 140.86 |
| Sep 02, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±12.7% | +1.0% | 区间内 | 139.43 → 140.86 |
| Sep 01, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±13.7% | -0.1% | 区间内 | 141.03 → 140.86 |
| Aug 31, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±13.7% | -4.7% | 区间内 | 147.74 → 140.86 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±0.3% | -0.0% | 区间内 | 134.44 → 134.38 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±2.3% | -2.1% | 区间内 | 137.30 → 134.38 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±7.4% | -1.8% | 区间内 | 136.86 → 134.38 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±7.4% | -1.9% | 区间内 | 137.05 → 134.38 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±7.6% | -2.4% | 区间内 | 137.65 → 134.38 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±7.8% | -1.2% | 区间内 | 136.03 → 134.38 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±8.4% | -3.2% | 区间内 | 138.88 → 134.38 |
结果通过比较记录的价格区间与到期日收盘价得出。各行显示所用方法版本（与当前版本不同时）；当前版本： em-1.0.