Morgan Stanley (MS)
Ikhtisar · Rantai opsi · Volatilitas · Riwayat pergerakan yang diharapkan · Laba
Cboe delayed options data · per 21:58 UTC · Angka yang diturunkan dari rantai opsi penuh (1,318 kontrak, 16 kedaluwarsa) · Persentil riwayat IV sendiri muncul setelah 60 hari pencatatan (30 sejauh ini)
Pergerakan yang diharapkan · Nov 20, 2026 (31 hari)
Metodologi →Dibaca dari harga opsi: straddle at-the-money berharga sebesar ini, sehingga pasar memperkirakan pergerakan sekitar sebesar itu ke salah satu arah pada tanggal ini. Ini adalah estimasi besarnya pergerakan, bukan prediksi arahnya.
Opsi memperkirakan pergerakan sekitar ±6.5% (rentang 169.15–192.65) oleh Nov 20, 2026. ATM straddle: 11.75 @ strike 180 · ATM IV: 28.0%.
Distribusi probabilitas
Model & asumsi →Kurva ini menunjukkan kisaran hasil yang diperkirakan oleh model lognormal — yang menggunakan implied volatility saat ini — pada ekspirasi ini. Bagian yang diarsir: pita pergerakan yang diperkirakan.
| Level | vs harga | P(di atas)Model-estimated chance the stock finishes above a level at expiration, derived from current IV under a lognormal model with stated assumptions — an estimate, not a prediction. | P(di bawah) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 162.81 | -10% | 89.5% | 10.5% |
| 171.86 | -5% | 72.2% | 27.8% |
| 180.90 | -0% | 48.4% | 51.6% |
| 189.95 | +5% | 26.1% | 73.9% |
| 198.99 | +10% | 11.3% | 88.7% |
Probabilitas yang diestimasi model untuk harga berakhir di atas/di bawah setiap level saat kedaluwarsa: estimasi berdasarkan asumsi tertentu, bukan prediksi.
Penjelajah probabilitas
Geser slider ke level mana pun dan lihat perkiraan peluang dari model bahwa saham akan berakhir di atas atau di bawah level tersebut pada expirasi yang dipilih.
Horizon: Nov 20, 2026 · Model lognormal dengan zero drift: estimasi, bukan prediksi. Asumsi
Expirasi
Buka rantai opsi →| Kedaluwarsa | DTEDays to expiration, in calendar days. | Implied move | ATM IV | Open int. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 23, 2026 | 3 | ±2.2% | 30.8% | 18.5K |
| Oct 30, 2026 | 10 | ±4.1% | 29.1% | 12.1K |
| Nov 06, 2026 | 17 | ±5.1% | 29.3% | 5,235 |
| Nov 13, 2026 | 24 | ±5.9% | 29.0% | 1,837 |
| Nov 20, 2026 | 31 | ±6.5% | 28.0% | 51.4K |
| Nov 27, 2026 | 38 | ±7.1% | 27.7% | 903 |
| Dec 18, 2026 | 59 | ±8.9% | 27.7% | 57.3K |
| Jan 15, 2027 | 87 | ±11.3% | 29.0% | 93.1K |
| Mar 19, 2027 | 150 | ±14.8% | 29.1% | 31.3K |
| Apr 16, 2027 | 178 | ±16.3% | 29.4% | 6,905 |
Open interest per strike · Nov 20
Tempat posisi opsi terkonsentrasi. Batang teal adalah call, batang merah adalah put; garis putus-putus adalah harga saat ini.
Konsentrasi open interest terbesar (semua kedaluwarsa ≤ 60 hari): 200 C · 11.1K170 P · 9,612172.5 P · 7,317195 C · 7,116180 P · 6,189
Struktur tenor IV
Halaman volatilitas →Implied volatility at-the-money untuk setiap tanggal kedaluwarsa. Tonjolan di sekitar suatu tanggal sering menandai acara terjadwal yang sedang dihargai oleh pasar.
Kapan open interest kedaluwarsa?
Implied vs volatilitas terealisasi
HV dari penutupan harian tersimpan kami (disetahunkan); IV30 diinterpolasi dari rantai opsi. Metode
Harga, 60 sesi terakhir
Penutupan harian; Financial Modeling Prep.
Rekam jejak
Riwayat lengkap →Dari 121 perbandingan snapshot-versus-hasil yang direkam sejauh ini, penutupan berada di dalam kisaran yang diperkirakan 33.9% dari waktu ke waktu.
Reaksi pendapatan masa lalu
Rata-rata |reaksi| 4.0% · median 3.6% (21 laporan). Jendela waktu dua sesi penutupan ke penutupan; definisi
Tentang Morgan Stanley
Morgan Stanley operates as a prominent financial holding company, delivering a comprehensive suite of financial solutions and services. Its diverse clientele spans major corporations, governmental bodies, financial institutions, and individual clients across various global regions, including the Americas, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, and Asia. The firm's operations are structured into three primary divisions: Institutional Securities, Wealth Management, and Investment Management. Within the Institutional Securities segment, Morgan Stanley provides crucial capital-raising and strategic financial advisory services. This includes underwriting activities for debt, equity, and other financial instruments, alongside expert counsel on mergers and acquisitions, corporate reorganizations, real estate transactions, and project financing. Furthermore, this division is a key player in sales and trading, offering services like sales execution, financing solutions, prime brokerage, and market-making across equity and fixed-income products, encompassing foreign exchange and commodities. It also extends corporate and commercial real estate loans, furnishes secured lending facilities, supports
Layanan Keuangan · Financial - Capital Markets · NYSE · Profil: Financial Modeling Prep
MS berita
Semua berita →JPMorgan invests $5B in companies critical to US national security
JPMorgan Chase committed $5 billion in equity to companies strengthening U.S. national security, defense technology and critical supply…
Fox Business · 17:26 UTC ↗Why JP Morgan Is Finally Bullish on Bitcoin
BlackRock's Bitcoin ETF took in $665 million on Monday, its largest single day since October 2025. Fidelity and Grayscale saw outflows the…
Yahoo Finance · 12:30 UTC ↗What happens to Wall Street if CoreWeave defaults? JPMorgan checked the math.
Call it a sign of the times: A JPMorgan analyst is looking into the exposure banks will have if CoreWeave defaults on its debts.
MarketWatch · 12:10 UTC ↗We're in the 'final innings' of the market correction, says Morgan Stanley's Mike Wilson
Mike Wilson, Morgan Stanley CIO and chief U.S. equity strategist, joins 'Squawk Box' to discuss the latest market trends, state of the AI…
CNBC Television · 07:46 UTC ↗Efek terkait · Layanan Keuangan
HOOD · IV 66.1%SOFI · IV 58.9%MARA · IV 94.2%BAC · IV 23.5%NU · IV 63.1%COIN · IV 70.5%