MRK 预期波动历史 Merck & Co., Inc.
每个交易日收盘后，我们记录期权市场对各到期日的定价——均在结果揭晓前留存。到期日过后，实际结果会附记于原始预估值旁。预估值在事后绝不修改。 如何解读这些统计数据 · 记录开始于 Aug 31, 2026
已解决的比较项121
收盘价处于区间内88%
|实际值| 低于预期值88%
平均预期波动幅度±4.4%
平均|实际|波动幅度2.1%
平均绝对误差2.6pt
隐含与已实现波动率，按到期日
每个到期日：琥珀色轮廓框为最接近到期时记录的预期涨跌幅；实心柱为股票实际涨跌幅。柱形下方标注带符号的具体数值。
预期（已记录）实际
已记录（等待结果）
| 快照 | 到期时间 | DTE | 当时现货价 | 预期涨跌幅 | 区间 | 方法 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 19 | Oct 23 | 4 | 144.15 | ±2.8% | 140.18–148.13 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 16 | Oct 23 | 7 | 145.75 | ±3.4% | 140.79–150.71 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 14 | Oct 23 | 9 | 147.93 | ±3.8% | 142.38–153.49 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 13 | Oct 23 | 10 | 142.12 | ±3.8% | 136.68–147.57 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 09 | Oct 23 | 14 | 145.76 | ±4.5% | 139.26–152.26 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 08 | Oct 23 | 15 | 141.77 | ±4.9% | 134.88–148.66 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 07 | Oct 23 | 16 | 143.64 | ±4.7% | 136.89–150.40 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 06 | Oct 23 | 17 | 142.00 | ±4.6% | 135.50–148.50 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 05 | Oct 23 | 18 | 139.63 | ±4.7% | 133.12–146.13 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 02 | Oct 23 | 21 | 144.01 | ±5.1% | 136.63–151.38 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 01 | Oct 23 | 22 | 143.49 | ±5.7% | 135.34–151.64 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 23 | Oct 23 | 30 | 150.95 | ±6.7% | 140.82–161.07 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 22 | Oct 23 | 31 | 151.92 | ±6.5% | 141.97–161.87 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 21 | Oct 23 | 32 | 149.64 | ±6.2% | 140.29–158.99 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 18 | Oct 23 | 35 | 146.11 | ±6.7% | 136.39–155.83 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 17 | Oct 23 | 36 | 147.18 | ±6.8% | 137.18–157.18 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 16 | Oct 23 | 37 | 144.91 | ±7.0% | 134.81–155.01 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 15 | Oct 23 | 38 | 144.11 | ±7.1% | 133.88–154.34 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 14 | Oct 23 | 39 | 144.45 | ±7.3% | 133.90–155.00 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 11 | Oct 23 | 42 | 143.90 | ±7.5% | 133.18–154.62 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 10 | Oct 23 | 43 | 145.03 | ±7.8% | 133.72–156.32 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 09 | Oct 23 | 44 | 147.85 | ±7.9% | 136.10–159.60 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 08 | Oct 23 | 45 | 149.78 | ±8.4% | 137.25–162.30 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 07 | Oct 23 | 46 | 150.51 | ±8.4% | 137.81–163.21 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 04 | Oct 23 | 49 | 150.51 | ±8.4% | 137.81–163.21 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 03 | Oct 23 | 50 | 151.69 | ±8.6% | 138.69–164.69 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 19 | Oct 30 | 11 | 144.15 | ±6.5% | 134.73–153.58 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 16 | Oct 30 | 14 | 145.75 | ±7.0% | 135.60–155.90 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 14 | Oct 30 | 16 | 147.93 | ±7.1% | 137.48–158.38 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 13 | Oct 30 | 17 | 142.12 | ±7.1% | 131.97–152.27 | em-1.0 |
已归档快照
| 快照 | 已到期 | 预期值 | 实际值 | 在区间内？ | 现货价 → 收盘价 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 16, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±0.3% | +0.1% | 区间内 | 145.75 → 145.95 |
| Oct 14, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±2.1% | -1.3% | 区间内 | 147.93 → 145.95 |
| Oct 13, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±2.2% | +2.7% | 区间外 | 142.12 → 145.95 |
| Oct 09, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±2.9% | +0.1% | 区间内 | 145.76 → 145.95 |
| Oct 08, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±3.4% | +2.9% | 区间内 | 141.77 → 145.95 |
| Oct 07, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±3.5% | +1.6% | 区间内 | 143.64 → 145.95 |
| Oct 06, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±3.7% | +2.8% | 区间内 | 142.00 → 145.95 |
| Oct 05, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±3.8% | +4.5% | 区间外 | 139.63 → 145.95 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±3.9% | +1.3% | 区间内 | 144.01 → 145.95 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±4.4% | +1.7% | 区间内 | 143.49 → 145.95 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±5.6% | -3.3% | 区间内 | 150.95 → 145.95 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±5.6% | -3.9% | 区间内 | 151.92 → 145.95 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±5.5% | -2.5% | 区间内 | 149.64 → 145.95 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±5.9% | -0.1% | 区间内 | 146.11 → 145.95 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±6.1% | -0.8% | 区间内 | 147.18 → 145.95 |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±6.1% | +0.7% | 区间内 | 144.91 → 145.95 |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±6.5% | +1.3% | 区间内 | 144.11 → 145.95 |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±6.5% | +1.0% | 区间内 | 144.45 → 145.95 |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±6.8% | +1.4% | 区间内 | 143.90 → 145.95 |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±7.0% | +0.6% | 区间内 | 145.03 → 145.95 |
| Sep 09, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±7.4% | -1.3% | 区间内 | 147.85 → 145.95 |
| Sep 08, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±7.6% | -2.6% | 区间内 | 149.78 → 145.95 |
| Sep 07, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±7.6% | -3.0% | 区间内 | 150.51 → 145.95 |
| Sep 04, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±7.6% | -3.0% | 区间内 | 150.51 → 145.95 |
| Sep 03, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±7.6% | -3.8% | 区间内 | 151.69 → 145.95 |
| Sep 02, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±7.8% | -3.7% | 区间内 | 151.59 → 145.95 |
| Sep 01, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±7.9% | -2.6% | 区间内 | 149.82 → 145.95 |
| Aug 31, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±7.9% | -1.8% | 区间内 | 148.57 → 145.95 |
| Oct 09, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±0.4% | -0.1% | 区间内 | 145.76 → 145.60 |
| Oct 08, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±1.4% | +2.7% | 区间外 | 141.77 → 145.60 |
| Oct 07, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±1.9% | +1.4% | 区间内 | 143.64 → 145.60 |
| Oct 06, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±2.2% | +2.5% | 区间外 | 142.00 → 145.60 |
| Oct 05, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±2.5% | +4.3% | 区间外 | 139.63 → 145.60 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±2.8% | +1.1% | 区间内 | 144.01 → 145.60 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±3.3% | +1.5% | 区间内 | 143.49 → 145.60 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±4.9% | -3.5% | 区间内 | 150.95 → 145.60 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±4.8% | -4.2% | 区间内 | 151.92 → 145.60 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±4.8% | -2.7% | 区间内 | 149.64 → 145.60 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±4.8% | -0.4% | 区间内 | 146.11 → 145.60 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±5.2% | -1.1% | 区间内 | 147.18 → 145.60 |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±4.8% | +0.5% | 区间内 | 144.91 → 145.60 |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±5.4% | +1.0% | 区间内 | 144.11 → 145.60 |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±5.2% | +0.8% | 区间内 | 144.45 → 145.60 |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±6.1% | +1.2% | 区间内 | 143.90 → 145.60 |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±6.3% | +0.4% | 区间内 | 145.03 → 145.60 |
| Sep 09, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±6.3% | -1.5% | 区间内 | 147.85 → 145.60 |
| Sep 08, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±6.9% | -2.8% | 区间内 | 149.78 → 145.60 |
| Sep 07, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±6.8% | -3.3% | 区间内 | 150.51 → 145.60 |
| Sep 04, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±6.8% | -3.3% | 区间内 | 150.51 → 145.60 |
| Sep 03, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±6.9% | -4.0% | 区间内 | 151.69 → 145.60 |
| Sep 02, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±7.2% | -3.9% | 区间内 | 151.59 → 145.60 |
| Sep 01, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±7.3% | -2.8% | 区间内 | 149.82 → 145.60 |
| Aug 31, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±7.5% | -2.0% | 区间内 | 148.57 → 145.60 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±0.6% | +0.2% | 区间内 | 144.01 → 144.30 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±1.5% | +0.6% | 区间内 | 143.49 → 144.30 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±3.7% | -4.4% | 区间外 | 150.95 → 144.30 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±3.6% | -5.0% | 区间外 | 151.92 → 144.30 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±3.6% | -3.6% | 区间内 | 149.64 → 144.30 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±4.2% | -1.2% | 区间内 | 146.11 → 144.30 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±4.3% | -2.0% | 区间内 | 147.18 → 144.30 |
结果通过比较记录的价格区间与到期日收盘价得出。各行显示所用方法版本（与当前版本不同时）；当前版本： em-1.0.