Marathon Petroleum Corporation (MPC)
Overview · Option chain · Volatility · Expected-move history · Earnings
Cboe delayed options data · as of 09:39 UTC · Figures derived from the full chain (1,132 contracts, 10 expirations) · IV own-history percentile appears after 60 recorded days (28 so far)
Expected move · Nov 20, 2026 (32 days)
Methodology →Read from option prices: the at-the-money straddle costs this much, so the market is pricing a move of about that size in either direction by this date. It is an estimate of movement, not a prediction of direction.
Options are pricing a move of about ±13.1% (range 415.06–539.96) by Nov 20, 2026. ATM straddle: 62.45 @ strike 480 · ATM IV: 52.7%.
Probability distribution
Model & assumptions →The curve shows where a lognormal model, fed with current implied volatility, puts the range of outcomes at this expiration. Shaded: the expected-move band.
| Level | vs price | P(above)Model-estimated chance the stock finishes above a level at expiration, derived from current IV under a lognormal model with stated assumptions — an estimate, not a prediction. | P(below) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 429.76 | -10% | 72.5% | 27.5% |
| 453.63 | -5% | 59.9% | 40.1% |
| 477.51 | +0% | 46.9% | 53.1% |
| 501.39 | +5% | 34.8% | 65.2% |
| 525.26 | +10% | 24.5% | 75.5% |
Model-estimated probabilities of finishing above/below each level at expiration: estimates under stated assumptions, not predictions.
Probability explorer
Drag the slider to any level and see the model-estimated chance the stock finishes above or below it at the selected expiration.
Horizon: Nov 20, 2026 · lognormal model with zero drift: an estimate, not a prediction. Assumptions
Expirations
Open the chain →| Expires | DTEDays to expiration, in calendar days. | Implied move | ATM IV | Open int. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 20, 2026 | 32 | ±13.1% | 52.7% | 13.5K |
| Dec 18, 2026 | 60 | ±17.1% | 51.7% | 18.4K |
| Jan 15, 2027 | 88 | ±20.1% | 50.5% | 31.0K |
| Mar 19, 2027 | 151 | ±26.3% | 51.1% | 7,787 |
| Apr 16, 2027 | 179 | ±28.4% | 50.9% | 1,882 |
Open interest by strike · Nov 20
Where option positions are concentrated. Teal bars are calls, red bars are puts; the dashed line is the current price.
Largest open-interest concentrations (all expirations ≤ 60 days): 430 C · 3,264400 P · 1,388430 P · 1,252400 C · 1,178330 P · 1,104
IV term structure
Volatility page →At-the-money implied volatility for each expiration. A hump around a date often marks a scheduled event the market is pricing.
When does open interest expire?
Implied vs realized volatility
HV from our stored daily closes (annualized); IV30 interpolated from the chain. Method
Price, last 60 sessions
Daily closes; Financial Modeling Prep.
Track record
Full history →Of 15 recorded snapshot-versus-outcome comparisons so far, the close landed inside the expected range 26.7% of the time.
Past earnings reactions
Avg |reaction| 5.1% · median 4.6% (20 reports). Two-session close-to-close window; definition
About Marathon Petroleum Corporation
Marathon Petroleum Corporation (MPC) functions as a prominent integrated energy enterprise, primarily concentrating its downstream operations across the United States. Its business is bifurcated into two main divisions: Refining & Marketing, and Midstream. The Refining & Marketing segment is responsible for processing crude oil and various other raw materials at its refineries, strategically located in the U.S. Gulf Coast, Mid-Continent, and West Coast regions. This division also acquires refined petroleum products and ethanol for subsequent distribution. Key outputs from this segment encompass a diverse array of transportation fuels, including different gasoline blends, heavy fuel oil, and asphalt. Additionally, it manufactures chemicals such as aromatics, propane, propylene, and sulfur. MPC sells these refined goods through multiple channels, including wholesale marketers domestically and globally, purchasers on the open spot market, and independent entrepreneurs who manage primarily Marathon-branded retail locations. It also supplies fuel via long-term agreements to direct dealer sites, predominantly under the ARCO brand. The Midstream segment handles the comprehensive movement,
Energy · Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing · NYSE · Profile: Financial Modeling Prep
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