MET historial de movimiento esperado MetLife, Inc.
Cada día de negociación, tras el cierre, registramos lo que el mercado de opciones estaba descontando — por vencimiento, antes de conocerse el resultado. Cuando un vencimiento finaliza, el resultado se anota junto a la estimación original. Las estimaciones nunca se revisan a posteriori. Cómo interpretar estas estadísticas · registrando desde Aug 31, 2026
Comparaciones resueltas43
Cierre dentro del rango79%
|Real| por debajo de lo esperado79%
Movimiento esperado promedio±3.9%
Movimiento |real| promedio2.9%
Error medio abs.1.6pt
Implícita vs realizada, por vencimiento
Para cada vencimiento: el contorno ámbar es el movimiento esperado registrado más cerca del vencimiento; la barra sólida es lo que la acción hizo realmente. Los valores con signo aparecen bajo las barras.
esperado (registrado)real
Registrado actualmente (pendiente de resultado)
| Instantánea | Vence | DTE | Precio entonces | Movimiento esperado | Rango | Método |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 19 | Nov 20 | 32 | 99.58 | ±7.4% | 92.18–106.98 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 16 | Nov 20 | 35 | 100.76 | ±7.7% | 92.96–108.56 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 14 | Nov 20 | 37 | 99.72 | ±7.1% | 92.67–106.77 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 13 | Nov 20 | 38 | 100.65 | ±7.1% | 93.50–107.80 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 09 | Nov 20 | 42 | 98.33 | ±7.6% | 90.83–105.83 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 08 | Nov 20 | 43 | 98.23 | ±7.8% | 90.53–105.93 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 07 | Nov 20 | 44 | 95.78 | ±7.6% | 88.48–103.08 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 06 | Nov 20 | 45 | 97.16 | ±7.7% | 89.71–104.61 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 05 | Nov 20 | 46 | 96.88 | ±7.5% | 89.63–104.13 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 02 | Nov 20 | 49 | 94.43 | ±8.0% | 86.83–102.03 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 01 | Nov 20 | 50 | 94.35 | ±7.9% | 86.90–101.80 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 23 | Nov 20 | 58 | 95.38 | ±8.5% | 87.23–103.53 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 22 | Nov 20 | 59 | 95.92 | ±8.5% | 87.77–104.07 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 21 | Nov 20 | 60 | 97.04 | ±8.6% | 88.69–105.39 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 18 | Nov 20 | 63 | 96.97 | ±8.8% | 88.47–105.47 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 17 | Nov 20 | 64 | 97.90 | ±9.5% | 88.60–107.20 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 16 | Nov 20 | 65 | 97.44 | ±8.8% | 88.89–105.98 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 15 | Nov 20 | 66 | 97.75 | ±8.6% | 89.30–106.20 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 14 | Nov 20 | 67 | 97.46 | ±8.8% | 88.86–106.06 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 11 | Nov 20 | 70 | 97.02 | ±8.8% | 88.52–105.52 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 10 | Nov 20 | 71 | 95.69 | ±9.1% | 86.94–104.44 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 09 | Nov 20 | 72 | 95.66 | ±9.4% | 86.66–104.66 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 08 | Nov 20 | 73 | 97.62 | ±9.1% | 88.77–106.47 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 07 | Nov 20 | 74 | 97.62 | ±9.1% | 88.77–106.47 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 04 | Nov 20 | 77 | 99.23 | ±9.3% | 89.98–108.48 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 03 | Nov 20 | 78 | 96.42 | ±9.4% | 87.37–105.47 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 02 | Nov 20 | 79 | 94.42 | ±9.3% | 85.62–103.22 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 01 | Nov 20 | 80 | 94.31 | ±9.4% | 85.47–103.17 | em-1.0 |
| Aug 31 | Nov 20 | 81 | 96.51 | ±9.4% | 87.41–105.61 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 19 | Dec 18 | 60 | 99.58 | ±8.5% | 91.13–108.03 | em-1.0 |
Instantáneas resueltas
| Instantánea | Vencido | Esperado | Real | ¿Dentro del rango? | Precio → cierre |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 16, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±0.9% | +0.0% | dentro | 100.76 → 100.76 |
| Oct 14, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±1.7% | +1.0% | dentro | 99.72 → 100.76 |
| Oct 13, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±2.1% | +0.1% | dentro | 100.65 → 100.76 |
| Oct 09, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±2.7% | +2.5% | dentro | 98.33 → 100.76 |
| Oct 08, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±3.3% | +2.6% | dentro | 98.23 → 100.76 |
| Oct 07, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±3.1% | +5.2% | fuera | 95.78 → 100.76 |
| Oct 06, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±3.1% | +3.7% | fuera | 97.16 → 100.76 |
| Oct 05, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±3.3% | +4.0% | fuera | 96.88 → 100.76 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±3.7% | +6.7% | fuera | 94.43 → 100.76 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±3.8% | +6.8% | fuera | 94.35 → 100.76 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±4.8% | +5.6% | fuera | 95.38 → 100.76 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±4.8% | +5.0% | fuera | 95.92 → 100.76 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±4.8% | +3.8% | dentro | 97.04 → 100.76 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±5.0% | +3.9% | dentro | 96.97 → 100.76 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±5.3% | +2.9% | dentro | 97.90 → 100.76 |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±5.4% | +3.4% | dentro | 97.44 → 100.76 |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±5.6% | +3.1% | dentro | 97.75 → 100.76 |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±5.3% | +3.4% | dentro | 97.46 → 100.76 |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±5.3% | +3.9% | dentro | 97.02 → 100.76 |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±5.8% | +5.3% | dentro | 95.69 → 100.76 |
| Sep 09, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±5.9% | +5.3% | dentro | 95.66 → 100.76 |
| Sep 08, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±6.0% | +3.2% | dentro | 97.62 → 100.76 |
| Sep 07, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±6.0% | +3.2% | dentro | 97.62 → 100.76 |
| Sep 04, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±5.9% | +1.5% | dentro | 99.23 → 100.76 |
| Sep 03, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±5.8% | +4.5% | dentro | 96.42 → 100.76 |
| Sep 02, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±6.1% | +6.7% | fuera | 94.42 → 100.76 |
| Sep 01, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±6.2% | +6.8% | fuera | 94.31 → 100.76 |
| Aug 31, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±6.3% | +4.4% | dentro | 96.51 → 100.76 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Sep 18 | ±0.9% | +0.1% | dentro | 96.97 → 97.04 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Sep 18 | ±1.4% | -0.9% | dentro | 97.90 → 97.04 |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Sep 18 | ±1.5% | -0.4% | dentro | 97.44 → 97.04 |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Sep 18 | ±2.0% | -0.7% | dentro | 97.75 → 97.04 |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Sep 18 | ±2.1% | -0.4% | dentro | 97.46 → 97.04 |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Sep 18 | ±2.1% | +0.0% | dentro | 97.02 → 97.04 |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Sep 18 | ±3.0% | +1.4% | dentro | 95.69 → 97.04 |
| Sep 09, 2026 | Sep 18 | ±2.8% | +1.4% | dentro | 95.66 → 97.04 |
| Sep 08, 2026 | Sep 18 | ±3.2% | -0.6% | dentro | 97.62 → 97.04 |
| Sep 07, 2026 | Sep 18 | ±3.2% | -0.6% | dentro | 97.62 → 97.04 |
| Sep 04, 2026 | Sep 18 | ±2.9% | -2.2% | dentro | 99.23 → 97.04 |
| Sep 03, 2026 | Sep 18 | ±3.1% | +0.6% | dentro | 96.42 → 97.04 |
| Sep 02, 2026 | Sep 18 | ±3.7% | +2.8% | dentro | 94.42 → 97.04 |
| Sep 01, 2026 | Sep 18 | ±3.8% | +2.9% | dentro | 94.31 → 97.04 |
| Aug 31, 2026 | Sep 18 | ±4.0% | +0.5% | dentro | 96.51 → 97.04 |
Los resultados comparan el rango registrado con el precio de cierre en el día de expiración. La versión del método se muestra por fila cuando difiere; actual: em-1.0.