MA historial de movimiento esperado Mastercard Incorporated
Cada día de negociación, tras el cierre, registramos lo que el mercado de opciones estaba descontando — por vencimiento, antes de conocerse el resultado. Cuando un vencimiento finaliza, el resultado se anota junto a la estimación original. Las estimaciones nunca se revisan a posteriori. Cómo interpretar estas estadísticas · registrando desde Aug 31, 2026
Comparaciones resueltas121
Cierre dentro del rango56%
|Real| por debajo de lo esperado56%
Movimiento esperado promedio±3.3%
Movimiento |real| promedio3.5%
Error medio abs.1.9pt
Implícita vs realizada, por vencimiento
Para cada vencimiento: el contorno ámbar es el movimiento esperado registrado más cerca del vencimiento; la barra sólida es lo que la acción hizo realmente. Los valores con signo aparecen bajo las barras.
esperado (registrado)real
Registrado actualmente (pendiente de resultado)
| Instantánea | Vence | DTE | Precio entonces | Movimiento esperado | Rango | Método |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 19 | Oct 23 | 4 | 616.06 | ±2.0% | 603.71–628.41 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 16 | Oct 23 | 7 | 615.22 | ±2.2% | 601.42–629.02 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 14 | Oct 23 | 9 | 601.89 | ±2.9% | 584.69–619.09 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 13 | Oct 23 | 10 | 602.32 | ±2.8% | 585.57–619.07 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 09 | Oct 23 | 14 | 588.00 | ±3.1% | 570.05–605.95 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 08 | Oct 23 | 15 | 574.43 | ±3.8% | 552.63–596.23 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 07 | Oct 23 | 16 | 571.27 | ±3.5% | 551.12–591.42 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 06 | Oct 23 | 17 | 566.99 | ±3.7% | 546.19–587.79 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 05 | Oct 23 | 18 | 564.76 | ±3.8% | 543.41–586.11 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 02 | Oct 23 | 21 | 553.44 | ±4.0% | 531.09–575.79 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 01 | Oct 23 | 22 | 551.00 | ±4.2% | 528.00–574.00 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 23 | Oct 23 | 30 | 556.81 | ±5.0% | 529.06–584.56 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 22 | Oct 23 | 31 | 557.00 | ±5.0% | 529.25–584.75 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 21 | Oct 23 | 32 | 567.00 | ±5.0% | 538.45–595.55 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 18 | Oct 23 | 35 | 565.24 | ±5.1% | 536.44–594.04 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 17 | Oct 23 | 36 | 566.00 | ±5.3% | 535.95–596.05 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 16 | Oct 23 | 37 | 565.74 | ±5.5% | 534.39–597.09 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 15 | Oct 23 | 38 | 573.00 | ±5.5% | 541.60–604.40 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 14 | Oct 23 | 39 | 568.13 | ±5.9% | 534.88–601.38 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 11 | Oct 23 | 42 | 572.33 | ±5.7% | 539.53–605.13 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 10 | Oct 23 | 43 | 564.93 | ±6.0% | 531.18–598.68 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 09 | Oct 23 | 44 | 569.51 | ±6.1% | 534.61–604.41 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 08 | Oct 23 | 45 | 570.89 | ±6.2% | 535.74–606.04 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 07 | Oct 23 | 46 | 579.21 | ±6.3% | 542.76–615.66 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 04 | Oct 23 | 49 | 580.52 | ±6.3% | 544.07–616.97 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 03 | Oct 23 | 50 | 584.76 | ±6.4% | 547.51–622.01 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 19 | Oct 30 | 11 | 616.06 | ±4.1% | 590.61–641.51 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 16 | Oct 30 | 14 | 615.22 | ±4.6% | 587.12–643.32 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 14 | Oct 30 | 16 | 601.89 | ±4.9% | 572.29–631.49 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 13 | Oct 30 | 17 | 602.32 | ±5.1% | 571.62–633.02 | em-1.0 |
Instantáneas resueltas
| Instantánea | Vencido | Esperado | Real | ¿Dentro del rango? | Precio → cierre |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 16, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±0.6% | +0.4% | dentro | 615.22 → 617.42 |
| Oct 14, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±1.7% | +2.6% | fuera | 601.89 → 617.42 |
| Oct 13, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±2.0% | +2.5% | fuera | 602.32 → 617.42 |
| Oct 09, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±2.2% | +5.0% | fuera | 588.00 → 617.42 |
| Oct 08, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±3.0% | +7.5% | fuera | 574.43 → 617.42 |
| Oct 07, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±2.8% | +8.1% | fuera | 571.27 → 617.42 |
| Oct 06, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±2.9% | +8.9% | fuera | 566.99 → 617.42 |
| Oct 05, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±3.1% | +9.3% | fuera | 564.76 → 617.42 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±3.2% | +11.6% | fuera | 553.44 → 617.42 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±3.4% | +12.1% | fuera | 551.00 → 617.42 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±4.3% | +10.9% | fuera | 556.81 → 617.42 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±4.3% | +10.8% | fuera | 557.00 → 617.42 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±4.2% | +8.9% | fuera | 567.00 → 617.42 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±4.2% | +9.2% | fuera | 565.24 → 617.42 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±4.6% | +9.1% | fuera | 566.00 → 617.42 |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±4.9% | +9.1% | fuera | 565.74 → 617.42 |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±5.0% | +7.8% | fuera | 573.00 → 617.42 |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±5.2% | +8.7% | fuera | 568.13 → 617.42 |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±5.0% | +7.9% | fuera | 572.33 → 617.42 |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±5.3% | +9.3% | fuera | 564.93 → 617.42 |
| Sep 09, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±5.5% | +8.4% | fuera | 569.51 → 617.42 |
| Sep 08, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±5.5% | +8.2% | fuera | 570.89 → 617.42 |
| Sep 07, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±5.6% | +6.6% | fuera | 579.21 → 617.42 |
| Sep 04, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±5.6% | +6.4% | fuera | 580.52 → 617.42 |
| Sep 03, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±5.6% | +5.6% | dentro | 584.76 → 617.42 |
| Sep 02, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±5.8% | +4.6% | dentro | 590.20 → 617.42 |
| Sep 01, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±6.1% | +6.2% | fuera | 581.23 → 617.42 |
| Aug 31, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±5.9% | +4.7% | dentro | 589.43 → 617.42 |
| Oct 09, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±0.4% | +0.2% | dentro | 588.00 → 589.14 |
| Oct 08, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±1.3% | +2.6% | fuera | 574.43 → 589.14 |
| Oct 07, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±1.5% | +3.1% | fuera | 571.27 → 589.14 |
| Oct 06, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±1.7% | +3.9% | fuera | 566.99 → 589.14 |
| Oct 05, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±2.0% | +4.3% | fuera | 564.76 → 589.14 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±2.3% | +6.5% | fuera | 553.44 → 589.14 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±2.5% | +6.9% | fuera | 551.00 → 589.14 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±3.7% | +5.8% | fuera | 556.81 → 589.14 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±3.7% | +5.8% | fuera | 557.00 → 589.14 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±3.6% | +3.9% | fuera | 567.00 → 589.14 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±3.9% | +4.2% | fuera | 565.24 → 589.14 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±4.1% | +4.1% | dentro | 566.00 → 589.14 |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±4.4% | +4.1% | dentro | 565.74 → 589.14 |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±4.4% | +2.8% | dentro | 573.00 → 589.14 |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±4.6% | +3.7% | dentro | 568.13 → 589.14 |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±4.5% | +2.9% | dentro | 572.33 → 589.14 |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±4.8% | +4.3% | dentro | 564.93 → 589.14 |
| Sep 09, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±4.8% | +3.4% | dentro | 569.51 → 589.14 |
| Sep 08, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±5.0% | +3.2% | dentro | 570.89 → 589.14 |
| Sep 07, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±5.1% | +1.7% | dentro | 579.21 → 589.14 |
| Sep 04, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±5.0% | +1.5% | dentro | 580.52 → 589.14 |
| Sep 03, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±5.0% | +0.7% | dentro | 584.76 → 589.14 |
| Sep 02, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±5.2% | -0.2% | dentro | 590.20 → 589.14 |
| Sep 01, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±5.6% | +1.4% | dentro | 581.23 → 589.14 |
| Aug 31, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±5.5% | -0.0% | dentro | 589.43 → 589.14 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±0.2% | -0.2% | fuera | 553.44 → 552.26 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±1.2% | +0.2% | dentro | 551.00 → 552.26 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±2.9% | -0.8% | dentro | 556.81 → 552.26 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±2.9% | -0.9% | dentro | 557.00 → 552.26 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±2.9% | -2.6% | dentro | 567.00 → 552.26 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±3.0% | -2.3% | dentro | 565.24 → 552.26 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±3.4% | -2.4% | dentro | 566.00 → 552.26 |
Los resultados comparan el rango registrado con el precio de cierre en el día de expiración. La versión del método se muestra por fila cuando difiere; actual: em-1.0.