Mastercard Incorporated (MA)
Overview · Option chain · Volatility · Expected-move history · Earnings
Cboe delayed options data · as of 09:39 UTC · Figures derived from the full chain (2,228 contracts, 16 expirations) · IV own-history percentile appears after 60 recorded days (28 so far)
Expected move · Nov 20, 2026 (32 days)
Methodology →Read from option prices: the at-the-money straddle costs this much, so the market is pricing a move of about that size in either direction by this date. It is an estimate of movement, not a prediction of direction.
Options are pricing a move of about ±6.0% (range 579.25–652.75) by Nov 20, 2026. ATM straddle: 36.75 @ strike 615 · ATM IV: 23.9%.
Probability distribution
Model & assumptions →The curve shows where a lognormal model, fed with current implied volatility, puts the range of outcomes at this expiration. Shaded: the expected-move band.
| Level | vs price | P(above)Model-estimated chance the stock finishes above a level at expiration, derived from current IV under a lognormal model with stated assumptions — an estimate, not a prediction. | P(below) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 554.40 | -10% | 92.7% | 7.3% |
| 585.20 | -5% | 75.5% | 24.5% |
| 616.00 | +0% | 48.6% | 51.4% |
| 646.80 | +5% | 23.4% | 76.6% |
| 677.60 | +10% | 8.3% | 91.7% |
Model-estimated probabilities of finishing above/below each level at expiration: estimates under stated assumptions, not predictions.
Probability explorer
Drag the slider to any level and see the model-estimated chance the stock finishes above or below it at the selected expiration.
Horizon: Nov 20, 2026 · lognormal model with zero drift: an estimate, not a prediction. Assumptions
Expirations
Open the chain →| Expires | DTEDays to expiration, in calendar days. | Implied move | ATM IV | Open int. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 23, 2026 | 4 | ±2.2% | 20.4% | 4,360 |
| Oct 30, 2026 | 11 | ±4.6% | 28.9% | 2,460 |
| Nov 06, 2026 | 18 | ±5.2% | 26.8% | 1,048 |
| Nov 13, 2026 | 25 | ±5.8% | 26.2% | 1,197 |
| Nov 20, 2026 | 32 | ±6.0% | 23.9% | 21.1K |
| Nov 27, 2026 | 39 | ±6.5% | 23.8% | 220 |
| Dec 18, 2026 | 60 | ±7.6% | 22.5% | 17.7K |
| Jan 15, 2027 | 88 | ±9.0% | 22.5% | 27.8K |
| Mar 19, 2027 | 151 | ±12.3% | 23.4% | 9,630 |
| Apr 16, 2027 | 179 | ±13.5% | 23.7% | 958 |
Open interest by strike · Nov 20
Where option positions are concentrated. Teal bars are calls, red bars are puts; the dashed line is the current price.
Largest open-interest concentrations (all expirations ≤ 60 days): 540 P · 2,433560 C · 1,969600 C · 1,754620 C · 1,485520 P · 1,464
IV term structure
Volatility page →At-the-money implied volatility for each expiration. A hump around a date often marks a scheduled event the market is pricing.
When does open interest expire?
Implied vs realized volatility
HV from our stored daily closes (annualized); IV30 interpolated from the chain. Method
Price, last 60 sessions
Daily closes; Financial Modeling Prep.
Track record
Full history →Of 93 recorded snapshot-versus-outcome comparisons so far, the close landed inside the expected range 68.8% of the time.
Past earnings reactions
Avg |reaction| 2.8% · median 2.3% (20 reports). Two-session close-to-close window; definition
About Mastercard Incorporated
Mastercard Incorporated is a global technology firm specializing in providing transaction processing and a wide array of payment solutions, operating across the United States and internationally. Its core business centers on enabling the entire payment transaction lifecycle – including authorization, clearing, and settlement – alongside offering a spectrum of complementary payment services. The company provides a comprehensive suite of integrated products and value-added services to a diverse clientele, which includes individual account holders, merchants, financial institutions, businesses, governments, and other organizations. These offerings span programs enabling deferred payment credit, prepaid card management services, commercial credit and debit solutions, and tools for accessing funds in deposit and other accounts. Additionally, Mastercard offers advanced cyber and intelligence solutions designed to secure transactions for all participants, and provides proprietary insights derived from the responsible utilization of consumer and merchant data. For online merchants, its specialized offerings encompass analytics, experimental "test and learn" platforms, consulting, managed s
Financial Services · Financial - Credit Services · NYSE · Profile: Financial Modeling Prep
MA news
All news →U.S. presses China on Mastercard, Citigroup market access in bilateral Bangkok talks, official says
The U.S. raised market access issues for Mastercard and Citigroup in China during bilateral meetings in Bangkok this week, a U.S. Treasury…
CNBC · Oct 16, 16:46 UTC ↗Related securities · Financial Services
SOFI · IV 59.0%HOOD · IV 67.7%MARA · IV 93.7%COIN · IV 71.9%BAC · IV —RIOT · IV 95.6%