ISRG historial de movimiento esperado Intuitive Surgical, Inc.
Cada día de negociación, tras el cierre, registramos lo que el mercado de opciones estaba descontando — por vencimiento, antes de conocerse el resultado. Cuando un vencimiento finaliza, el resultado se anota junto a la estimación original. Las estimaciones nunca se revisan a posteriori. Cómo interpretar estas estadísticas · registrando desde Aug 31, 2026
Comparaciones resueltas121
Cierre dentro del rango39%
|Real| por debajo de lo esperado39%
Movimiento esperado promedio±5.3%
Movimiento |real| promedio7.2%
Error medio abs.3.2pt
Implícita vs realizada, por vencimiento
Para cada vencimiento: el contorno ámbar es el movimiento esperado registrado más cerca del vencimiento; la barra sólida es lo que la acción hizo realmente. Los valores con signo aparecen bajo las barras.
esperado (registrado)real
Registrado actualmente (pendiente de resultado)
| Instantánea | Vence | DTE | Precio entonces | Movimiento esperado | Rango | Método |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 19 | Oct 23 | 4 | 433.18 | ±7.8% | 399.58–466.78 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 16 | Oct 23 | 7 | 426.70 | ±7.9% | 393.00–460.40 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 14 | Oct 23 | 9 | 420.24 | ±7.9% | 386.84–453.64 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 13 | Oct 23 | 10 | 422.06 | ±8.4% | 386.66–457.46 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 09 | Oct 23 | 14 | 424.00 | ±8.6% | 387.50–460.50 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 08 | Oct 23 | 15 | 415.31 | ±8.9% | 378.16–452.46 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 07 | Oct 23 | 16 | 414.54 | ±8.6% | 378.79–450.29 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 06 | Oct 23 | 17 | 406.00 | ±8.9% | 369.90–442.10 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 05 | Oct 23 | 18 | 406.69 | ±8.7% | 371.14–442.24 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 02 | Oct 23 | 21 | 391.95 | ±8.9% | 357.10–426.80 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 01 | Oct 23 | 22 | 404.90 | ±8.4% | 370.95–438.85 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 23 | Oct 23 | 30 | 401.03 | ±9.7% | 361.98–440.08 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 22 | Oct 23 | 31 | 401.03 | ±9.7% | 361.98–440.08 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 21 | Oct 23 | 32 | 403.09 | ±10.2% | 361.84–444.34 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 18 | Oct 23 | 35 | 392.76 | ±10.5% | 351.71–433.81 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 17 | Oct 23 | 36 | 383.54 | ±10.7% | 342.64–424.44 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 16 | Oct 23 | 37 | 385.10 | ±10.7% | 343.75–426.45 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 15 | Oct 23 | 38 | 377.16 | ±10.8% | 336.51–417.81 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 14 | Oct 23 | 39 | 378.35 | ±11.0% | 336.85–419.85 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 11 | Oct 23 | 42 | 369.15 | ±11.1% | 328.00–410.30 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 10 | Oct 23 | 43 | 359.88 | ±11.5% | 318.48–401.28 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 09 | Oct 23 | 44 | 353.51 | ±11.6% | 312.66–394.36 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 08 | Oct 23 | 45 | 350.90 | ±11.7% | 309.80–392.00 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 07 | Oct 23 | 46 | 366.25 | ±11.4% | 324.40–408.10 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 04 | Oct 23 | 49 | 365.92 | ±11.3% | 324.47–407.37 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 03 | Oct 23 | 50 | 371.36 | ±11.7% | 327.96–414.76 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 19 | Oct 30 | 11 | 433.18 | ±8.9% | 394.73–471.63 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 16 | Oct 30 | 14 | 426.70 | ±9.2% | 387.65–465.75 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 14 | Oct 30 | 16 | 420.24 | ±9.1% | 382.09–458.39 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 13 | Oct 30 | 17 | 422.06 | ±9.1% | 383.61–460.51 | em-1.0 |
Instantáneas resueltas
| Instantánea | Vencido | Esperado | Real | ¿Dentro del rango? | Precio → cierre |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 16, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±1.1% | +0.0% | dentro | 426.70 → 426.70 |
| Oct 14, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±2.3% | +1.5% | dentro | 420.24 → 426.70 |
| Oct 13, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±2.7% | +1.1% | dentro | 422.06 → 426.70 |
| Oct 09, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±3.3% | +0.6% | dentro | 424.00 → 426.70 |
| Oct 08, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±3.9% | +2.7% | dentro | 415.31 → 426.70 |
| Oct 07, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±3.9% | +2.9% | dentro | 414.54 → 426.70 |
| Oct 06, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±4.3% | +5.1% | fuera | 406.00 → 426.70 |
| Oct 05, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±4.2% | +4.9% | fuera | 406.69 → 426.70 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±4.7% | +8.9% | fuera | 391.95 → 426.70 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±4.5% | +5.4% | fuera | 404.90 → 426.70 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±7.6% | +6.4% | dentro | 401.03 → 426.70 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±7.6% | +6.4% | dentro | 401.03 → 426.70 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±7.3% | +5.9% | dentro | 403.09 → 426.70 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±7.7% | +8.6% | fuera | 392.76 → 426.70 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±8.7% | +11.3% | fuera | 383.54 → 426.70 |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±8.1% | +10.8% | fuera | 385.10 → 426.70 |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±8.5% | +13.1% | fuera | 377.16 → 426.70 |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±8.4% | +12.8% | fuera | 378.35 → 426.70 |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±8.3% | +15.6% | fuera | 369.15 → 426.70 |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±9.0% | +18.6% | fuera | 359.88 → 426.70 |
| Sep 09, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±9.0% | +20.7% | fuera | 353.51 → 426.70 |
| Sep 08, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±9.4% | +21.6% | fuera | 350.90 → 426.70 |
| Sep 07, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±8.9% | +16.5% | fuera | 366.25 → 426.70 |
| Sep 04, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±8.9% | +16.6% | fuera | 365.92 → 426.70 |
| Sep 03, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±9.2% | +14.9% | fuera | 371.36 → 426.70 |
| Sep 02, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±9.4% | +12.5% | fuera | 379.43 → 426.70 |
| Sep 01, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±9.2% | +15.5% | fuera | 369.49 → 426.70 |
| Aug 31, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±9.8% | +13.1% | fuera | 377.25 → 426.70 |
| Oct 09, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±0.7% | -0.0% | dentro | 424.00 → 423.96 |
| Oct 08, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±2.0% | +2.1% | fuera | 415.31 → 423.96 |
| Oct 07, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±2.3% | +2.3% | dentro | 414.54 → 423.96 |
| Oct 06, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±2.8% | +4.4% | fuera | 406.00 → 423.96 |
| Oct 05, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±3.1% | +4.2% | fuera | 406.69 → 423.96 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±3.4% | +8.2% | fuera | 391.95 → 423.96 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±3.7% | +4.7% | fuera | 404.90 → 423.96 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±5.9% | +5.7% | dentro | 401.03 → 423.96 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±5.9% | +5.7% | dentro | 401.03 → 423.96 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±5.8% | +5.2% | dentro | 403.09 → 423.96 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±6.2% | +7.9% | fuera | 392.76 → 423.96 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±6.4% | +10.5% | fuera | 383.54 → 423.96 |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±6.8% | +10.1% | fuera | 385.10 → 423.96 |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±7.1% | +12.4% | fuera | 377.16 → 423.96 |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±6.5% | +12.1% | fuera | 378.35 → 423.96 |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±7.3% | +14.8% | fuera | 369.15 → 423.96 |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±7.7% | +17.8% | fuera | 359.88 → 423.96 |
| Sep 09, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±7.6% | +19.9% | fuera | 353.51 → 423.96 |
| Sep 08, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±8.0% | +20.8% | fuera | 350.90 → 423.96 |
| Sep 07, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±7.7% | +15.8% | fuera | 366.25 → 423.96 |
| Sep 04, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±7.6% | +15.9% | fuera | 365.92 → 423.96 |
| Sep 03, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±7.9% | +14.2% | fuera | 371.36 → 423.96 |
| Sep 02, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±8.3% | +11.7% | fuera | 379.43 → 423.96 |
| Sep 01, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±8.1% | +14.7% | fuera | 369.49 → 423.96 |
| Aug 31, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±8.5% | +12.4% | fuera | 377.25 → 423.96 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±1.3% | +0.0% | dentro | 391.95 → 391.95 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±2.0% | -3.2% | fuera | 404.90 → 391.95 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±4.4% | -2.3% | dentro | 401.03 → 391.95 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±4.4% | -2.3% | dentro | 401.03 → 391.95 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±4.4% | -2.8% | dentro | 403.09 → 391.95 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±4.9% | -0.2% | dentro | 392.76 → 391.95 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±5.1% | +2.2% | dentro | 383.54 → 391.95 |
Los resultados comparan el rango registrado con el precio de cierre en el día de expiración. La versión del método se muestra por fila cuando difiere; actual: em-1.0.