IBIT 预期波动历史 iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF
每个交易日收盘后，我们记录期权市场对各到期日的定价——均在结果揭晓前留存。到期日过后，实际结果会附记于原始预估值旁。预估值在事后绝不修改。 如何解读这些统计数据 · 记录开始于 Aug 31, 2026
已解决的比较项4
收盘价处于区间内100%
|实际值| 低于预期值100%
平均预期波动幅度±1.2%
平均|实际|波动幅度0.6%
平均绝对误差0.6pt
隐含与已实现波动率，按到期日
每个到期日：琥珀色轮廓框为最接近到期时记录的预期涨跌幅；实心柱为股票实际涨跌幅。柱形下方标注带符号的具体数值。
预期（已记录）实际
已记录（等待结果）
| 快照 | 到期时间 | DTE | 当时现货价 | 预期涨跌幅 | 区间 | 方法 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 03 | Sep 04 | 1 | 46.50 | ±2.4% | 45.38–47.62 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 02 | Sep 04 | 2 | 43.81 | ±2.1% | 42.90–44.72 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 01 | Sep 04 | 3 | 43.67 | ±2.8% | 42.43–44.91 | em-1.0 |
| Aug 31 | Sep 04 | 4 | 44.71 | ±3.1% | 43.32–46.10 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 03 | Sep 09 | 6 | 46.50 | ±4.2% | 44.55–48.45 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 02 | Sep 09 | 7 | 43.81 | ±3.4% | 42.31–45.30 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 01 | Sep 09 | 8 | 43.67 | ±4.1% | 41.89–45.45 | em-1.0 |
| Aug 31 | Sep 09 | 9 | 44.71 | ±4.3% | 42.80–46.62 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 03 | Sep 11 | 8 | 46.50 | ±5.1% | 44.15–48.85 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 02 | Sep 11 | 9 | 43.81 | ±4.1% | 42.02–45.59 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 01 | Sep 11 | 10 | 43.67 | ±4.7% | 41.60–45.74 | em-1.0 |
| Aug 31 | Sep 11 | 11 | 44.71 | ±5.0% | 42.49–46.92 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 03 | Sep 14 | 11 | 46.50 | ±5.5% | 43.94–49.06 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 02 | Sep 14 | 12 | 43.81 | ±4.7% | 41.74–45.88 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 01 | Sep 14 | 13 | 43.67 | ±5.2% | 41.38–45.96 | em-1.0 |
| Aug 31 | Sep 14 | 14 | 44.71 | ±5.4% | 42.27–47.15 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 03 | Sep 16 | 13 | 46.50 | ±6.2% | 43.64–49.36 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 02 | Sep 16 | 14 | 43.81 | ±5.3% | 41.47–46.15 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 01 | Sep 16 | 15 | 43.67 | ±9.9% | 39.34–48.01 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 03 | Sep 18 | 15 | 46.50 | ±6.7% | 43.37–49.63 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 02 | Sep 18 | 16 | 43.81 | ±5.9% | 41.22–46.41 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 01 | Sep 18 | 17 | 43.67 | ±6.4% | 40.88–46.47 | em-1.0 |
| Aug 31 | Sep 18 | 18 | 44.71 | ±6.5% | 41.80–47.62 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 03 | Sep 25 | 22 | 46.50 | ±8.1% | 42.74–50.26 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 02 | Sep 25 | 23 | 43.81 | ±7.1% | 40.69–46.93 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 01 | Sep 25 | 24 | 43.67 | ±7.7% | 40.33–47.02 | em-1.0 |
| Aug 31 | Sep 25 | 25 | 44.71 | ±7.6% | 41.30–48.12 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 03 | Oct 02 | 29 | 46.50 | ±9.2% | 42.22–50.78 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 02 | Oct 02 | 30 | 43.81 | ±8.3% | 40.19–47.44 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 01 | Oct 02 | 31 | 43.67 | ±8.8% | 39.80–47.53 | em-1.0 |
已归档快照
| 快照 | 已到期 | 预期值 | 实际值 | 在区间内？ | 现货价 → 收盘价 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 02, 2026 | Sep 02 | ±0.5% | -0.0% | 区间内 | 43.81 → 43.79 |
| Sep 01, 2026 | Sep 02 | ±1.6% | +0.3% | 区间内 | 43.67 → 43.79 |
| Aug 31, 2026 | Sep 02 | ±2.1% | -2.1% | 区间内 | 44.71 → 43.79 |
| Aug 31, 2026 | Aug 31 | ±0.5% | -0.1% | 区间内 | 44.71 → 44.67 |
结果通过比较记录的价格区间与到期日收盘价得出。各行显示所用方法版本（与当前版本不同时）；当前版本： em-1.0.