IBIT 预期波动历史 iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF
每个交易日收盘后，我们记录期权市场对各到期日的定价——均在结果揭晓前留存。到期日过后，实际结果会附记于原始预估值旁。预估值在事后绝不修改。 如何解读这些统计数据 · 记录开始于 Aug 31, 2026
已解决的比较项200
收盘价处于区间内66%
|实际值| 低于预期值66%
平均预期波动幅度±4.6%
平均|实际|波动幅度4.2%
平均绝对误差2.4pt
隐含与已实现波动率，按到期日
每个到期日：琥珀色轮廓框为最接近到期时记录的预期涨跌幅；实心柱为股票实际涨跌幅。柱形下方标注带符号的具体数值。
预期（已记录）实际
已记录（等待结果）
| 快照 | 到期时间 | DTE | 当时现货价 | 预期涨跌幅 | 区间 | 方法 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 16 | Oct 16 | 0 | 46.13 | ±0.4% | 45.95–46.31 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 14 | Oct 16 | 2 | 46.27 | ±2.4% | 45.17–47.37 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 13 | Oct 16 | 3 | 47.19 | ±2.6% | 45.98–48.40 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 09 | Oct 16 | 7 | 46.69 | ±3.4% | 45.09–48.29 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 08 | Oct 16 | 8 | 46.22 | ±4.3% | 44.26–48.19 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 07 | Oct 16 | 9 | 47.12 | ±4.4% | 45.07–49.17 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 06 | Oct 16 | 10 | 48.48 | ±4.3% | 46.38–50.58 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 05 | Oct 16 | 11 | 48.65 | ±4.6% | 46.42–50.88 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 02 | Oct 16 | 14 | 47.82 | ±4.9% | 45.47–50.17 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 01 | Oct 16 | 15 | 47.88 | ±5.7% | 45.14–50.62 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 23 | Oct 16 | 23 | 48.83 | ±7.9% | 44.96–52.70 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 22 | Oct 16 | 24 | 48.86 | ±7.9% | 44.99–52.73 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 21 | Oct 16 | 25 | 49.19 | ±8.4% | 45.06–53.32 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 18 | Oct 16 | 28 | 45.99 | ±8.1% | 42.25–49.73 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 17 | Oct 16 | 29 | 43.31 | ±7.4% | 40.09–46.53 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 16 | Oct 16 | 30 | 43.07 | ±8.5% | 39.39–46.74 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 15 | Oct 16 | 31 | 42.85 | ±9.1% | 38.95–46.76 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 14 | Oct 16 | 32 | 44.70 | ±9.3% | 40.55–48.84 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 11 | Oct 16 | 35 | 43.73 | ±9.1% | 39.74–47.73 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 10 | Oct 16 | 36 | 43.70 | ±9.6% | 39.51–47.90 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 09 | Oct 16 | 37 | 44.26 | ±10.0% | 39.83–48.70 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 08 | Oct 16 | 38 | 44.43 | ±10.4% | 39.83–49.03 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 07 | Oct 16 | 39 | 45.11 | ±10.6% | 40.32–49.89 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 04 | Oct 16 | 42 | 45.23 | ±10.6% | 40.45–50.02 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 03 | Oct 16 | 43 | 46.50 | ±11.1% | 41.32–51.68 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 02 | Oct 16 | 44 | 43.81 | ±10.2% | 39.32–48.30 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 01 | Oct 16 | 45 | 43.67 | ±10.8% | 38.96–48.38 | em-1.0 |
| Aug 31 | Oct 16 | 46 | 44.71 | ±10.4% | 40.06–49.36 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 16 | Oct 19 | 3 | 46.13 | ±2.3% | 45.06–47.20 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 14 | Oct 19 | 5 | 46.27 | ±3.1% | 44.84–47.70 | em-1.0 |
已归档快照
| 快照 | 已到期 | 预期值 | 实际值 | 在区间内？ | 现货价 → 收盘价 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 14, 2026 | Oct 15 | ±1.8% | +0.7% | 区间内 | 46.27 → 46.59 |
| Oct 13, 2026 | Oct 15 | ±2.2% | -1.3% | 区间内 | 47.19 → 46.59 |
| Oct 09, 2026 | Oct 15 | ±3.1% | -0.2% | 区间内 | 46.69 → 46.59 |
| Oct 08, 2026 | Oct 15 | ±4.0% | +0.8% | 区间内 | 46.22 → 46.59 |
| Oct 14, 2026 | Oct 14 | ±0.5% | -0.1% | 区间内 | 46.27 → 46.24 |
| Oct 13, 2026 | Oct 14 | ±1.6% | -2.0% | 区间外 | 47.19 → 46.24 |
| Oct 09, 2026 | Oct 14 | ±2.7% | -1.0% | 区间内 | 46.69 → 46.24 |
| Oct 08, 2026 | Oct 14 | ±3.6% | +0.0% | 区间内 | 46.22 → 46.24 |
| Oct 07, 2026 | Oct 14 | ±3.8% | -1.9% | 区间内 | 47.12 → 46.24 |
| Oct 06, 2026 | Oct 14 | ±3.8% | -4.6% | 区间外 | 48.48 → 46.24 |
| Oct 13, 2026 | Oct 13 | ±0.2% | -0.1% | 区间内 | 47.19 → 47.13 |
| Oct 09, 2026 | Oct 13 | ±2.2% | +0.9% | 区间内 | 46.69 → 47.13 |
| Oct 08, 2026 | Oct 13 | ±3.2% | +2.0% | 区间内 | 46.22 → 47.13 |
| Oct 07, 2026 | Oct 13 | ±3.4% | +0.0% | 区间内 | 47.12 → 47.13 |
| Oct 06, 2026 | Oct 13 | ±3.5% | -2.8% | 区间内 | 48.48 → 47.13 |
| Oct 09, 2026 | Oct 12 | ±1.7% | +0.4% | 区间内 | 46.69 → 46.86 |
| Oct 08, 2026 | Oct 12 | ±2.8% | +1.4% | 区间内 | 46.22 → 46.86 |
| Oct 07, 2026 | Oct 12 | ±3.0% | -0.6% | 区间内 | 47.12 → 46.86 |
| Oct 06, 2026 | Oct 12 | ±3.0% | -3.3% | 区间外 | 48.48 → 46.86 |
| Oct 05, 2026 | Oct 12 | ±3.3% | -3.7% | 区间外 | 48.65 → 46.86 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 12 | ±3.6% | -2.0% | 区间内 | 47.82 → 46.86 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 12 | ±4.4% | -2.1% | 区间内 | 47.88 → 46.86 |
| Oct 09, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±0.2% | -0.3% | 区间外 | 46.69 → 46.55 |
| Oct 08, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±1.8% | +0.7% | 区间内 | 46.22 → 46.55 |
| Oct 07, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±2.2% | -1.2% | 区间内 | 47.12 → 46.55 |
| Oct 06, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±2.3% | -4.0% | 区间外 | 48.48 → 46.55 |
| Oct 05, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±2.7% | -4.3% | 区间外 | 48.65 → 46.55 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±3.2% | -2.7% | 区间内 | 47.82 → 46.55 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±4.0% | -2.8% | 区间内 | 47.88 → 46.55 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±6.7% | -4.7% | 区间内 | 48.83 → 46.55 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±6.7% | -4.7% | 区间内 | 48.86 → 46.55 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±7.2% | -5.4% | 区间内 | 49.19 → 46.55 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±7.0% | +1.2% | 区间内 | 45.99 → 46.55 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±6.4% | +7.5% | 区间外 | 43.31 → 46.55 |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±7.5% | +8.1% | 区间外 | 43.07 → 46.55 |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±8.1% | +8.6% | 区间外 | 42.85 → 46.55 |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±8.2% | +4.1% | 区间内 | 44.70 → 46.55 |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±8.1% | +6.4% | 区间内 | 43.73 → 46.55 |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±8.6% | +6.5% | 区间内 | 43.70 → 46.55 |
| Sep 09, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±9.0% | +5.2% | 区间内 | 44.26 → 46.55 |
| Sep 08, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±9.4% | +4.8% | 区间内 | 44.43 → 46.55 |
| Sep 07, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±9.6% | +3.2% | 区间内 | 45.11 → 46.55 |
| Sep 04, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±9.6% | +2.9% | 区间内 | 45.23 → 46.55 |
| Sep 03, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±10.3% | +0.1% | 区间内 | 46.50 → 46.55 |
| Sep 02, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±9.3% | +6.3% | 区间内 | 43.81 → 46.55 |
| Sep 01, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±9.9% | +6.6% | 区间内 | 43.67 → 46.55 |
| Aug 31, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±9.6% | +4.1% | 区间内 | 44.71 → 46.55 |
| Oct 07, 2026 | Oct 07 | ±0.6% | +0.2% | 区间内 | 47.12 → 47.21 |
| Oct 06, 2026 | Oct 07 | ±1.3% | -2.6% | 区间外 | 48.48 → 47.21 |
| Oct 05, 2026 | Oct 07 | ±1.9% | -3.0% | 区间外 | 48.65 → 47.21 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 07 | ±2.5% | -1.3% | 区间内 | 47.82 → 47.21 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 07 | ±3.3% | -1.4% | 区间内 | 47.88 → 47.21 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Oct 07 | ±6.2% | -3.3% | 区间内 | 48.83 → 47.21 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Oct 07 | ±6.2% | -3.4% | 区间内 | 48.86 → 47.21 |
| Oct 05, 2026 | Oct 05 | ±0.1% | -0.2% | 区间外 | 48.65 → 48.56 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 05 | ±1.7% | +1.5% | 区间内 | 47.82 → 48.56 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 05 | ±2.6% | +1.4% | 区间内 | 47.88 → 48.56 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Oct 05 | ±5.7% | -0.6% | 区间内 | 48.83 → 48.56 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Oct 05 | ±5.6% | -0.6% | 区间内 | 48.86 → 48.56 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Oct 05 | ±6.3% | -1.3% | 区间内 | 49.19 → 48.56 |
结果通过比较记录的价格区间与到期日收盘价得出。各行显示所用方法版本（与当前版本不同时）；当前版本： em-1.0.