IBIT histórico de movimento esperado iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF
A cada dia útil, após o fechamento, registramos o que o mercado de opções estava precificando — por expiração, antes de o resultado ser conhecido. Quando uma expiração passa, o resultado é registrado ao lado da estimativa original. As estimativas nunca são revisadas após o fato. Como interpretar estas estatísticas · registrando desde Aug 31, 2026
Comparações resolvidas200
Fechar dentro do intervalo67%
|Real| abaixo do esperado67%
Movimento esperado médio±5.2%
Movimento |real| médio4.5%
Erro médio absoluto2.7pt
Implícita vs. realizada, por vencimento
Para cada expiração: o contorno âmbar é o movimento esperado registrado mais próximo do vencimento; a barra sólida é o que a ação realmente fez. Os valores com sinal aparecem abaixo das barras.
esperado (registrado)real
Atualmente registado (a aguardar resultado)
| Snapshot | Expira | DTE | Spot na época | Movimento esperado | Intervalo | Método |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 19 | Oct 19 | 0 | 46.37 | ±0.3% | 46.22–46.52 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 16 | Oct 19 | 3 | 46.13 | ±2.3% | 45.06–47.20 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 14 | Oct 19 | 5 | 46.27 | ±3.1% | 44.84–47.70 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 13 | Oct 19 | 6 | 47.19 | ±3.2% | 45.68–48.70 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 09 | Oct 19 | 10 | 46.69 | ±3.9% | 44.88–48.50 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 08 | Oct 19 | 11 | 46.22 | ±4.7% | 44.04–48.41 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 07 | Oct 19 | 12 | 47.12 | ±4.8% | 44.88–49.37 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 06 | Oct 19 | 13 | 48.48 | ±4.7% | 46.19–50.77 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 05 | Oct 19 | 14 | 48.65 | ±5.1% | 46.16–51.13 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 19 | Oct 20 | 1 | 46.37 | ±1.5% | 45.69–47.05 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 16 | Oct 20 | 4 | 46.13 | ±2.9% | 44.80–47.46 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 14 | Oct 20 | 6 | 46.27 | ±3.4% | 44.67–47.87 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 13 | Oct 20 | 7 | 47.19 | ±3.6% | 45.51–48.87 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 09 | Oct 20 | 11 | 46.69 | ±4.2% | 44.75–48.64 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 08 | Oct 20 | 12 | 46.22 | ±5.0% | 43.90–48.55 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 07 | Oct 20 | 13 | 47.12 | ±5.0% | 44.75–49.49 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 06 | Oct 20 | 14 | 48.48 | ±5.1% | 46.01–50.95 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 19 | Oct 21 | 2 | 46.37 | ±2.0% | 45.44–47.30 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 16 | Oct 21 | 5 | 46.13 | ±3.2% | 44.66–47.60 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 14 | Oct 21 | 7 | 46.27 | ±3.8% | 44.53–48.01 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 13 | Oct 21 | 8 | 47.19 | ±3.8% | 45.41–48.98 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 09 | Oct 21 | 12 | 46.69 | ±4.5% | 44.60–48.78 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 08 | Oct 21 | 13 | 46.22 | ±5.3% | 43.78–48.66 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 07 | Oct 21 | 14 | 47.12 | ±5.3% | 44.62–49.62 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 06 | Oct 21 | 15 | 48.48 | ±5.4% | 45.88–51.08 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 19 | Oct 22 | 3 | 46.37 | ±2.4% | 45.24–47.50 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 16 | Oct 22 | 6 | 46.13 | ±3.6% | 44.48–47.77 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 14 | Oct 22 | 8 | 46.27 | ±4.1% | 44.38–48.16 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 13 | Oct 22 | 9 | 47.19 | ±4.1% | 45.25–49.13 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 09 | Oct 22 | 13 | 46.69 | ±4.8% | 44.47–48.92 | em-1.0 |
Snapshots encerrados
| Snapshot | Expirado | Esperado | Real | Dentro do intervalo? | Spot → fechamento |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 16, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±0.4% | +0.0% | dentro | 46.13 → 46.15 |
| Oct 14, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±2.4% | -0.3% | dentro | 46.27 → 46.15 |
| Oct 13, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±2.6% | -2.2% | dentro | 47.19 → 46.15 |
| Oct 09, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±3.4% | -1.2% | dentro | 46.69 → 46.15 |
| Oct 08, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±4.3% | -0.2% | dentro | 46.22 → 46.15 |
| Oct 07, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±4.4% | -2.1% | dentro | 47.12 → 46.15 |
| Oct 06, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±4.3% | -4.8% | fora | 48.48 → 46.15 |
| Oct 05, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±4.6% | -5.1% | fora | 48.65 → 46.15 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±4.9% | -3.5% | dentro | 47.82 → 46.15 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±5.7% | -3.6% | dentro | 47.88 → 46.15 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±7.9% | -5.5% | dentro | 48.83 → 46.15 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±7.9% | -5.5% | dentro | 48.86 → 46.15 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±8.4% | -6.2% | dentro | 49.19 → 46.15 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±8.1% | +0.3% | dentro | 45.99 → 46.15 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±7.4% | +6.6% | dentro | 43.31 → 46.15 |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±8.5% | +7.2% | dentro | 43.07 → 46.15 |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±9.1% | +7.7% | dentro | 42.85 → 46.15 |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±9.3% | +3.2% | dentro | 44.70 → 46.15 |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±9.1% | +5.5% | dentro | 43.73 → 46.15 |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±9.6% | +5.6% | dentro | 43.70 → 46.15 |
| Sep 09, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±10.0% | +4.3% | dentro | 44.26 → 46.15 |
| Sep 08, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±10.4% | +3.9% | dentro | 44.43 → 46.15 |
| Sep 07, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±10.6% | +2.3% | dentro | 45.11 → 46.15 |
| Sep 04, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±10.6% | +2.0% | dentro | 45.23 → 46.15 |
| Sep 03, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±11.1% | -0.8% | dentro | 46.50 → 46.15 |
| Sep 02, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±10.2% | +5.3% | dentro | 43.81 → 46.15 |
| Sep 01, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±10.8% | +5.7% | dentro | 43.67 → 46.15 |
| Aug 31, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±10.4% | +3.2% | dentro | 44.71 → 46.15 |
| Oct 14, 2026 | Oct 15 | ±1.8% | +0.7% | dentro | 46.27 → 46.59 |
| Oct 13, 2026 | Oct 15 | ±2.2% | -1.3% | dentro | 47.19 → 46.59 |
| Oct 09, 2026 | Oct 15 | ±3.1% | -0.2% | dentro | 46.69 → 46.59 |
| Oct 08, 2026 | Oct 15 | ±4.0% | +0.8% | dentro | 46.22 → 46.59 |
| Oct 14, 2026 | Oct 14 | ±0.5% | -0.1% | dentro | 46.27 → 46.24 |
| Oct 13, 2026 | Oct 14 | ±1.6% | -2.0% | fora | 47.19 → 46.24 |
| Oct 09, 2026 | Oct 14 | ±2.7% | -1.0% | dentro | 46.69 → 46.24 |
| Oct 08, 2026 | Oct 14 | ±3.6% | +0.0% | dentro | 46.22 → 46.24 |
| Oct 07, 2026 | Oct 14 | ±3.8% | -1.9% | dentro | 47.12 → 46.24 |
| Oct 06, 2026 | Oct 14 | ±3.8% | -4.6% | fora | 48.48 → 46.24 |
| Oct 13, 2026 | Oct 13 | ±0.2% | -0.1% | dentro | 47.19 → 47.13 |
| Oct 09, 2026 | Oct 13 | ±2.2% | +0.9% | dentro | 46.69 → 47.13 |
| Oct 08, 2026 | Oct 13 | ±3.2% | +2.0% | dentro | 46.22 → 47.13 |
| Oct 07, 2026 | Oct 13 | ±3.4% | +0.0% | dentro | 47.12 → 47.13 |
| Oct 06, 2026 | Oct 13 | ±3.5% | -2.8% | dentro | 48.48 → 47.13 |
| Oct 09, 2026 | Oct 12 | ±1.7% | +0.4% | dentro | 46.69 → 46.86 |
| Oct 08, 2026 | Oct 12 | ±2.8% | +1.4% | dentro | 46.22 → 46.86 |
| Oct 07, 2026 | Oct 12 | ±3.0% | -0.6% | dentro | 47.12 → 46.86 |
| Oct 06, 2026 | Oct 12 | ±3.0% | -3.3% | fora | 48.48 → 46.86 |
| Oct 05, 2026 | Oct 12 | ±3.3% | -3.7% | fora | 48.65 → 46.86 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 12 | ±3.6% | -2.0% | dentro | 47.82 → 46.86 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 12 | ±4.4% | -2.1% | dentro | 47.88 → 46.86 |
| Oct 09, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±0.2% | -0.3% | fora | 46.69 → 46.55 |
| Oct 08, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±1.8% | +0.7% | dentro | 46.22 → 46.55 |
| Oct 07, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±2.2% | -1.2% | dentro | 47.12 → 46.55 |
| Oct 06, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±2.3% | -4.0% | fora | 48.48 → 46.55 |
| Oct 05, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±2.7% | -4.3% | fora | 48.65 → 46.55 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±3.2% | -2.7% | dentro | 47.82 → 46.55 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±4.0% | -2.8% | dentro | 47.88 → 46.55 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±6.7% | -4.7% | dentro | 48.83 → 46.55 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±6.7% | -4.7% | dentro | 48.86 → 46.55 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±7.2% | -5.4% | dentro | 49.19 → 46.55 |
Os resultados comparam o intervalo registado com o preço de fecho no dia de expiração. A versão do método é indicada por linha quando difere; atual: em-1.0.