HON historial de movimiento esperado Honeywell International Inc.
Cada día de negociación, tras el cierre, registramos lo que el mercado de opciones estaba descontando — por vencimiento, antes de conocerse el resultado. Cuando un vencimiento finaliza, el resultado se anota junto a la estimación original. Las estimaciones nunca se revisan a posteriori. Cómo interpretar estas estadísticas · registrando desde Aug 31, 2026
Comparaciones resueltas121
Cierre dentro del rango87%
|Real| por debajo de lo esperado87%
Movimiento esperado promedio±4.4%
Movimiento |real| promedio2.0%
Error medio abs.2.6pt
Implícita vs realizada, por vencimiento
Para cada vencimiento: el contorno ámbar es el movimiento esperado registrado más cerca del vencimiento; la barra sólida es lo que la acción hizo realmente. Los valores con signo aparecen bajo las barras.
esperado (registrado)real
Registrado actualmente (pendiente de resultado)
| Instantánea | Vence | DTE | Precio entonces | Movimiento esperado | Rango | Método |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 19 | Oct 23 | 4 | 209.98 | ±5.3% | 198.83–221.13 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 16 | Oct 23 | 7 | 211.41 | ±5.1% | 200.66–222.16 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 14 | Oct 23 | 9 | 207.11 | ±5.9% | 194.86–219.36 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 13 | Oct 23 | 10 | 207.29 | ±5.6% | 195.69–218.89 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 09 | Oct 23 | 14 | 208.00 | ±5.7% | 196.20–219.80 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 08 | Oct 23 | 15 | 206.98 | ±6.3% | 193.93–220.03 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 07 | Oct 23 | 16 | 208.11 | ±6.4% | 194.71–221.51 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 06 | Oct 23 | 17 | 212.66 | ±6.7% | 198.41–226.91 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 05 | Oct 23 | 18 | 214.14 | ±6.3% | 200.74–227.54 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 02 | Oct 23 | 21 | 213.95 | ±6.7% | 199.70–228.20 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 01 | Oct 23 | 22 | 214.05 | ±7.2% | 198.55–229.55 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 23 | Oct 23 | 30 | 211.90 | ±7.4% | 196.30–227.50 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 22 | Oct 23 | 31 | 211.99 | ±7.4% | 196.39–227.59 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 21 | Oct 23 | 32 | 206.68 | ±7.6% | 191.03–222.32 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 18 | Oct 23 | 35 | 205.93 | ±7.8% | 189.93–221.93 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 17 | Oct 23 | 36 | 206.49 | ±8.0% | 189.94–223.04 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 16 | Oct 23 | 37 | 207.00 | ±8.2% | 190.00–224.00 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 15 | Oct 23 | 38 | 203.44 | ±8.3% | 186.64–220.24 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 14 | Oct 23 | 39 | 202.36 | ±8.3% | 185.56–219.16 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 11 | Oct 23 | 42 | 202.10 | ±8.3% | 185.30–218.90 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 10 | Oct 23 | 43 | 202.18 | ±8.7% | 184.68–219.68 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 09 | Oct 23 | 44 | 205.19 | ±8.9% | 186.84–223.54 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 08 | Oct 23 | 45 | 209.11 | ±9.2% | 189.81–228.41 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 07 | Oct 23 | 46 | 209.80 | ±9.1% | 190.65–228.95 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 04 | Oct 23 | 49 | 209.57 | ±9.1% | 190.42–228.72 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 03 | Oct 23 | 50 | 207.64 | ±9.3% | 188.29–226.99 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 19 | Oct 30 | 11 | 209.98 | ±6.1% | 197.13–222.83 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 16 | Oct 30 | 14 | 211.41 | ±6.3% | 198.06–224.76 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 14 | Oct 30 | 16 | 207.11 | ±6.8% | 193.11–221.11 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 13 | Oct 30 | 17 | 207.29 | ±6.6% | 193.64–220.94 | em-1.0 |
Instantáneas resueltas
| Instantánea | Vencido | Esperado | Real | ¿Dentro del rango? | Precio → cierre |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 16, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±1.1% | +0.0% | dentro | 211.41 → 211.41 |
| Oct 14, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±2.2% | +2.1% | dentro | 207.11 → 211.41 |
| Oct 13, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±2.1% | +2.0% | dentro | 207.29 → 211.41 |
| Oct 09, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±2.6% | +1.6% | dentro | 208.00 → 211.41 |
| Oct 08, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±3.1% | +2.1% | dentro | 206.98 → 211.41 |
| Oct 07, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±3.1% | +1.6% | dentro | 208.11 → 211.41 |
| Oct 06, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±3.9% | -0.6% | dentro | 212.66 → 211.41 |
| Oct 05, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±3.7% | -1.3% | dentro | 214.14 → 211.41 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±3.9% | -1.2% | dentro | 213.95 → 211.41 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±4.7% | -1.2% | dentro | 214.05 → 211.41 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±5.8% | -0.2% | dentro | 211.90 → 211.41 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±5.8% | -0.3% | dentro | 211.99 → 211.41 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±5.9% | +2.3% | dentro | 206.68 → 211.41 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±5.9% | +2.7% | dentro | 205.93 → 211.41 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±6.5% | +2.4% | dentro | 206.49 → 211.41 |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±6.3% | +2.1% | dentro | 207.00 → 211.41 |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±7.1% | +3.9% | dentro | 203.44 → 211.41 |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±6.5% | +4.5% | dentro | 202.36 → 211.41 |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±6.9% | +4.6% | dentro | 202.10 → 211.41 |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±6.9% | +4.6% | dentro | 202.18 → 211.41 |
| Sep 09, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±7.4% | +3.0% | dentro | 205.19 → 211.41 |
| Sep 08, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±7.2% | +1.1% | dentro | 209.11 → 211.41 |
| Sep 07, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±7.7% | +0.8% | dentro | 209.80 → 211.41 |
| Sep 04, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±7.7% | +0.9% | dentro | 209.57 → 211.41 |
| Sep 03, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±7.7% | +1.8% | dentro | 207.64 → 211.41 |
| Sep 02, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±7.4% | +2.5% | dentro | 206.19 → 211.41 |
| Sep 01, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±8.3% | +0.7% | dentro | 209.98 → 211.41 |
| Aug 31, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±7.7% | -0.9% | dentro | 213.34 → 211.41 |
| Oct 09, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±0.8% | -0.1% | dentro | 208.00 → 207.73 |
| Oct 08, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±1.6% | +0.4% | dentro | 206.98 → 207.73 |
| Oct 07, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±1.8% | -0.2% | dentro | 208.11 → 207.73 |
| Oct 06, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±2.3% | -2.3% | dentro | 212.66 → 207.73 |
| Oct 05, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±2.4% | -3.0% | fuera | 214.14 → 207.73 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±2.8% | -2.9% | fuera | 213.95 → 207.73 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±3.5% | -3.0% | dentro | 214.05 → 207.73 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±4.9% | -2.0% | dentro | 211.90 → 207.73 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±4.9% | -2.0% | dentro | 211.99 → 207.73 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±5.4% | +0.5% | dentro | 206.68 → 207.73 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±5.7% | +0.9% | dentro | 205.93 → 207.73 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±5.9% | +0.6% | dentro | 206.49 → 207.73 |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±5.9% | +0.4% | dentro | 207.00 → 207.73 |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±6.0% | +2.1% | dentro | 203.44 → 207.73 |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±5.7% | +2.7% | dentro | 202.36 → 207.73 |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±5.8% | +2.8% | dentro | 202.10 → 207.73 |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±5.9% | +2.7% | dentro | 202.18 → 207.73 |
| Sep 09, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±6.4% | +1.2% | dentro | 205.19 → 207.73 |
| Sep 08, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±6.6% | -0.7% | dentro | 209.11 → 207.73 |
| Sep 07, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±6.8% | -1.0% | dentro | 209.80 → 207.73 |
| Sep 04, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±6.8% | -0.9% | dentro | 209.57 → 207.73 |
| Sep 03, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±7.2% | +0.0% | dentro | 207.64 → 207.73 |
| Sep 02, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±7.2% | +0.7% | dentro | 206.19 → 207.73 |
| Sep 01, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±7.3% | -1.1% | dentro | 209.98 → 207.73 |
| Aug 31, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±7.4% | -2.6% | dentro | 213.34 → 207.73 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±0.8% | +0.0% | dentro | 213.95 → 213.99 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±1.3% | -0.0% | dentro | 214.05 → 213.99 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±3.9% | +1.0% | dentro | 211.90 → 213.99 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±3.9% | +0.9% | dentro | 211.99 → 213.99 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±4.2% | +3.5% | dentro | 206.68 → 213.99 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±4.7% | +3.9% | dentro | 205.93 → 213.99 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±4.7% | +3.6% | dentro | 206.49 → 213.99 |
Los resultados comparan el rango registrado con el precio de cierre en el día de expiración. La versión del método se muestra por fila cuando difiere; actual: em-1.0.