HD 预期波动历史 The Home Depot, Inc.
每个交易日收盘后，我们记录期权市场对各到期日的定价——均在结果揭晓前留存。到期日过后，实际结果会附记于原始预估值旁。预估值在事后绝不修改。 如何解读这些统计数据 · 记录开始于 Aug 31, 2026
已解决的比较项121
收盘价处于区间内40%
|实际值| 低于预期值40%
平均预期波动幅度±4.0%
平均|实际|波动幅度4.9%
平均绝对误差2.4pt
隐含与已实现波动率，按到期日
每个到期日：琥珀色轮廓框为最接近到期时记录的预期涨跌幅；实心柱为股票实际涨跌幅。柱形下方标注带符号的具体数值。
预期（已记录）实际
已记录（等待结果）
| 快照 | 到期时间 | DTE | 当时现货价 | 预期涨跌幅 | 区间 | 方法 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 20 | Oct 23 | 3 | 314.50 | ±2.2% | 307.45–321.55 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 19 | Oct 23 | 4 | 309.88 | ±2.5% | 302.13–317.63 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 16 | Oct 23 | 7 | 309.35 | ±3.3% | 299.23–319.48 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 14 | Oct 23 | 9 | 295.34 | ±3.7% | 284.51–306.17 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 13 | Oct 23 | 10 | 294.17 | ±3.7% | 283.22–305.12 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 09 | Oct 23 | 14 | 291.00 | ±4.1% | 278.98–303.02 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 08 | Oct 23 | 15 | 295.35 | ±4.6% | 281.62–309.07 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 07 | Oct 23 | 16 | 285.51 | ±4.5% | 272.79–298.24 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 06 | Oct 23 | 17 | 287.00 | ±4.5% | 274.20–299.80 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 05 | Oct 23 | 18 | 281.45 | ±4.6% | 268.43–294.48 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 02 | Oct 23 | 21 | 283.20 | ±5.0% | 269.10–297.30 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 01 | Oct 23 | 22 | 282.79 | ±5.4% | 267.46–298.11 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 23 | Oct 23 | 30 | 305.30 | ±6.0% | 287.02–323.57 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 22 | Oct 23 | 31 | 305.87 | ±6.0% | 287.60–324.14 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 21 | Oct 23 | 32 | 297.20 | ±6.1% | 279.05–315.35 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 18 | Oct 23 | 35 | 300.00 | ±6.2% | 281.27–318.73 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 17 | Oct 23 | 36 | 302.99 | ±6.4% | 283.49–322.49 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 16 | Oct 23 | 37 | 303.25 | ±6.5% | 283.48–323.02 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 15 | Oct 23 | 38 | 306.00 | ±6.4% | 286.32–325.68 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 14 | Oct 23 | 39 | 310.96 | ±6.8% | 289.76–332.16 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 11 | Oct 23 | 42 | 309.10 | ±6.8% | 288.15–330.05 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 10 | Oct 23 | 43 | 305.75 | ±7.0% | 284.27–327.23 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 09 | Oct 23 | 44 | 311.00 | ±7.0% | 289.18–332.82 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 08 | Oct 23 | 45 | 313.80 | ±7.5% | 290.25–337.35 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 07 | Oct 23 | 46 | 321.05 | ±7.4% | 297.23–344.88 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 04 | Oct 23 | 49 | 321.05 | ±7.4% | 297.23–344.88 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 03 | Oct 23 | 50 | 318.10 | ±7.3% | 295.00–341.20 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 20 | Oct 30 | 10 | 314.50 | ±3.8% | 302.57–326.43 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 19 | Oct 30 | 11 | 309.88 | ±4.0% | 297.63–322.13 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 16 | Oct 30 | 14 | 309.35 | ±4.7% | 294.85–323.85 | em-1.0 |
已归档快照
| 快照 | 已到期 | 预期值 | 实际值 | 在区间内？ | 现货价 → 收盘价 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 16, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±0.2% | +0.1% | 区间内 | 309.35 → 309.63 |
| Oct 14, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±2.0% | +4.8% | 区间外 | 295.34 → 309.63 |
| Oct 13, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±2.2% | +5.3% | 区间外 | 294.17 → 309.63 |
| Oct 09, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±2.8% | +6.4% | 区间外 | 291.00 → 309.63 |
| Oct 08, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±3.4% | +4.8% | 区间外 | 295.35 → 309.63 |
| Oct 07, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±3.3% | +8.4% | 区间外 | 285.51 → 309.63 |
| Oct 06, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±3.4% | +7.9% | 区间外 | 287.00 → 309.63 |
| Oct 05, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±3.6% | +10.0% | 区间外 | 281.45 → 309.63 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±4.1% | +9.3% | 区间外 | 283.20 → 309.63 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±4.6% | +9.5% | 区间外 | 282.79 → 309.63 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±5.3% | +1.4% | 区间内 | 305.30 → 309.63 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±5.2% | +1.2% | 区间内 | 305.87 → 309.63 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±5.2% | +4.2% | 区间内 | 297.20 → 309.63 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±5.3% | +3.2% | 区间内 | 300.00 → 309.63 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±5.5% | +2.2% | 区间内 | 302.99 → 309.63 |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±5.9% | +2.1% | 区间内 | 303.25 → 309.63 |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±5.7% | +1.2% | 区间内 | 306.00 → 309.63 |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±5.9% | -0.4% | 区间内 | 310.96 → 309.63 |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±5.9% | +0.2% | 区间内 | 309.10 → 309.63 |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±6.4% | +1.3% | 区间内 | 305.75 → 309.63 |
| Sep 09, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±6.3% | -0.4% | 区间内 | 311.00 → 309.63 |
| Sep 08, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±6.6% | -1.3% | 区间内 | 313.80 → 309.63 |
| Sep 07, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±6.7% | -3.6% | 区间内 | 321.05 → 309.63 |
| Sep 04, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±6.7% | -3.6% | 区间内 | 321.05 → 309.63 |
| Sep 03, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±6.8% | -2.7% | 区间内 | 318.10 → 309.63 |
| Sep 02, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±7.0% | -2.7% | 区间内 | 318.21 → 309.63 |
| Sep 01, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±7.3% | -3.2% | 区间内 | 320.00 → 309.63 |
| Aug 31, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±7.2% | -5.6% | 区间内 | 328.12 → 309.63 |
| Oct 09, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±0.2% | -0.1% | 区间内 | 291.00 → 290.74 |
| Oct 08, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±1.3% | -1.6% | 区间外 | 295.35 → 290.74 |
| Oct 07, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±1.7% | +1.8% | 区间外 | 285.51 → 290.74 |
| Oct 06, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±2.0% | +1.3% | 区间内 | 287.00 → 290.74 |
| Oct 05, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±2.4% | +3.3% | 区间外 | 281.45 → 290.74 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±2.8% | +2.7% | 区间内 | 283.20 → 290.74 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±3.4% | +2.8% | 区间内 | 282.79 → 290.74 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±4.5% | -4.8% | 区间外 | 305.30 → 290.74 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±4.5% | -4.9% | 区间外 | 305.87 → 290.74 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±4.6% | -2.2% | 区间内 | 297.20 → 290.74 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±4.7% | -3.1% | 区间内 | 300.00 → 290.74 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±4.7% | -4.0% | 区间内 | 302.99 → 290.74 |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±5.1% | -4.1% | 区间内 | 303.25 → 290.74 |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±5.3% | -5.0% | 区间内 | 306.00 → 290.74 |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±5.2% | -6.5% | 区间外 | 310.96 → 290.74 |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±5.4% | -5.9% | 区间外 | 309.10 → 290.74 |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±5.7% | -4.9% | 区间内 | 305.75 → 290.74 |
| Sep 09, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±5.9% | -6.5% | 区间外 | 311.00 → 290.74 |
| Sep 08, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±5.9% | -7.3% | 区间外 | 313.80 → 290.74 |
| Sep 07, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±6.1% | -9.4% | 区间外 | 321.05 → 290.74 |
| Sep 04, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±6.1% | -9.4% | 区间外 | 321.05 → 290.74 |
| Sep 03, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±6.2% | -8.6% | 区间外 | 318.10 → 290.74 |
| Sep 02, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±6.3% | -8.6% | 区间外 | 318.21 → 290.74 |
| Sep 01, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±6.6% | -9.1% | 区间外 | 320.00 → 290.74 |
| Aug 31, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±6.6% | -11.4% | 区间外 | 328.12 → 290.74 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±0.2% | -0.1% | 区间内 | 283.20 → 282.85 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±1.5% | +0.0% | 区间内 | 282.79 → 282.85 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±3.5% | -7.4% | 区间外 | 305.30 → 282.85 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±3.5% | -7.5% | 区间外 | 305.87 → 282.85 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±3.6% | -4.8% | 区间外 | 297.20 → 282.85 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±3.8% | -5.7% | 区间外 | 300.00 → 282.85 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±4.1% | -6.6% | 区间外 | 302.99 → 282.85 |
结果通过比较记录的价格区间与到期日收盘价得出。各行显示所用方法版本（与当前版本不同时）；当前版本： em-1.0.