HD historial de movimiento esperado The Home Depot, Inc.
Cada día de negociación, tras el cierre, registramos lo que el mercado de opciones estaba descontando — por vencimiento, antes de conocerse el resultado. Cuando un vencimiento finaliza, el resultado se anota junto a la estimación original. Las estimaciones nunca se revisan a posteriori. Cómo interpretar estas estadísticas · registrando desde Aug 31, 2026
Comparaciones resueltas121
Cierre dentro del rango40%
|Real| por debajo de lo esperado40%
Movimiento esperado promedio±4.0%
Movimiento |real| promedio4.9%
Error medio abs.2.4pt
Implícita vs realizada, por vencimiento
Para cada vencimiento: el contorno ámbar es el movimiento esperado registrado más cerca del vencimiento; la barra sólida es lo que la acción hizo realmente. Los valores con signo aparecen bajo las barras.
esperado (registrado)real
Registrado actualmente (pendiente de resultado)
| Instantánea | Vence | DTE | Precio entonces | Movimiento esperado | Rango | Método |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 19 | Oct 23 | 4 | 309.88 | ±2.5% | 302.13–317.63 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 16 | Oct 23 | 7 | 309.35 | ±3.3% | 299.23–319.48 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 14 | Oct 23 | 9 | 295.34 | ±3.7% | 284.51–306.17 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 13 | Oct 23 | 10 | 294.17 | ±3.7% | 283.22–305.12 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 09 | Oct 23 | 14 | 291.00 | ±4.1% | 278.98–303.02 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 08 | Oct 23 | 15 | 295.35 | ±4.6% | 281.62–309.07 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 07 | Oct 23 | 16 | 285.51 | ±4.5% | 272.79–298.24 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 06 | Oct 23 | 17 | 287.00 | ±4.5% | 274.20–299.80 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 05 | Oct 23 | 18 | 281.45 | ±4.6% | 268.43–294.48 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 02 | Oct 23 | 21 | 283.20 | ±5.0% | 269.10–297.30 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 01 | Oct 23 | 22 | 282.79 | ±5.4% | 267.46–298.11 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 23 | Oct 23 | 30 | 305.30 | ±6.0% | 287.02–323.57 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 22 | Oct 23 | 31 | 305.87 | ±6.0% | 287.60–324.14 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 21 | Oct 23 | 32 | 297.20 | ±6.1% | 279.05–315.35 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 18 | Oct 23 | 35 | 300.00 | ±6.2% | 281.27–318.73 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 17 | Oct 23 | 36 | 302.99 | ±6.4% | 283.49–322.49 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 16 | Oct 23 | 37 | 303.25 | ±6.5% | 283.48–323.02 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 15 | Oct 23 | 38 | 306.00 | ±6.4% | 286.32–325.68 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 14 | Oct 23 | 39 | 310.96 | ±6.8% | 289.76–332.16 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 11 | Oct 23 | 42 | 309.10 | ±6.8% | 288.15–330.05 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 10 | Oct 23 | 43 | 305.75 | ±7.0% | 284.27–327.23 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 09 | Oct 23 | 44 | 311.00 | ±7.0% | 289.18–332.82 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 08 | Oct 23 | 45 | 313.80 | ±7.5% | 290.25–337.35 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 07 | Oct 23 | 46 | 321.05 | ±7.4% | 297.23–344.88 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 04 | Oct 23 | 49 | 321.05 | ±7.4% | 297.23–344.88 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 03 | Oct 23 | 50 | 318.10 | ±7.3% | 295.00–341.20 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 19 | Oct 30 | 11 | 309.88 | ±4.0% | 297.63–322.13 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 16 | Oct 30 | 14 | 309.35 | ±4.7% | 294.85–323.85 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 14 | Oct 30 | 16 | 295.34 | ±4.8% | 281.09–309.59 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 13 | Oct 30 | 17 | 294.17 | ±4.9% | 279.90–308.45 | em-1.0 |
Instantáneas resueltas
| Instantánea | Vencido | Esperado | Real | ¿Dentro del rango? | Precio → cierre |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 16, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±0.2% | +0.1% | dentro | 309.35 → 309.63 |
| Oct 14, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±2.0% | +4.8% | fuera | 295.34 → 309.63 |
| Oct 13, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±2.2% | +5.3% | fuera | 294.17 → 309.63 |
| Oct 09, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±2.8% | +6.4% | fuera | 291.00 → 309.63 |
| Oct 08, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±3.4% | +4.8% | fuera | 295.35 → 309.63 |
| Oct 07, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±3.3% | +8.4% | fuera | 285.51 → 309.63 |
| Oct 06, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±3.4% | +7.9% | fuera | 287.00 → 309.63 |
| Oct 05, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±3.6% | +10.0% | fuera | 281.45 → 309.63 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±4.1% | +9.3% | fuera | 283.20 → 309.63 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±4.6% | +9.5% | fuera | 282.79 → 309.63 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±5.3% | +1.4% | dentro | 305.30 → 309.63 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±5.2% | +1.2% | dentro | 305.87 → 309.63 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±5.2% | +4.2% | dentro | 297.20 → 309.63 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±5.3% | +3.2% | dentro | 300.00 → 309.63 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±5.5% | +2.2% | dentro | 302.99 → 309.63 |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±5.9% | +2.1% | dentro | 303.25 → 309.63 |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±5.7% | +1.2% | dentro | 306.00 → 309.63 |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±5.9% | -0.4% | dentro | 310.96 → 309.63 |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±5.9% | +0.2% | dentro | 309.10 → 309.63 |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±6.4% | +1.3% | dentro | 305.75 → 309.63 |
| Sep 09, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±6.3% | -0.4% | dentro | 311.00 → 309.63 |
| Sep 08, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±6.6% | -1.3% | dentro | 313.80 → 309.63 |
| Sep 07, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±6.7% | -3.6% | dentro | 321.05 → 309.63 |
| Sep 04, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±6.7% | -3.6% | dentro | 321.05 → 309.63 |
| Sep 03, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±6.8% | -2.7% | dentro | 318.10 → 309.63 |
| Sep 02, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±7.0% | -2.7% | dentro | 318.21 → 309.63 |
| Sep 01, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±7.3% | -3.2% | dentro | 320.00 → 309.63 |
| Aug 31, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±7.2% | -5.6% | dentro | 328.12 → 309.63 |
| Oct 09, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±0.2% | -0.1% | dentro | 291.00 → 290.74 |
| Oct 08, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±1.3% | -1.6% | fuera | 295.35 → 290.74 |
| Oct 07, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±1.7% | +1.8% | fuera | 285.51 → 290.74 |
| Oct 06, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±2.0% | +1.3% | dentro | 287.00 → 290.74 |
| Oct 05, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±2.4% | +3.3% | fuera | 281.45 → 290.74 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±2.8% | +2.7% | dentro | 283.20 → 290.74 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±3.4% | +2.8% | dentro | 282.79 → 290.74 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±4.5% | -4.8% | fuera | 305.30 → 290.74 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±4.5% | -4.9% | fuera | 305.87 → 290.74 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±4.6% | -2.2% | dentro | 297.20 → 290.74 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±4.7% | -3.1% | dentro | 300.00 → 290.74 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±4.7% | -4.0% | dentro | 302.99 → 290.74 |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±5.1% | -4.1% | dentro | 303.25 → 290.74 |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±5.3% | -5.0% | dentro | 306.00 → 290.74 |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±5.2% | -6.5% | fuera | 310.96 → 290.74 |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±5.4% | -5.9% | fuera | 309.10 → 290.74 |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±5.7% | -4.9% | dentro | 305.75 → 290.74 |
| Sep 09, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±5.9% | -6.5% | fuera | 311.00 → 290.74 |
| Sep 08, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±5.9% | -7.3% | fuera | 313.80 → 290.74 |
| Sep 07, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±6.1% | -9.4% | fuera | 321.05 → 290.74 |
| Sep 04, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±6.1% | -9.4% | fuera | 321.05 → 290.74 |
| Sep 03, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±6.2% | -8.6% | fuera | 318.10 → 290.74 |
| Sep 02, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±6.3% | -8.6% | fuera | 318.21 → 290.74 |
| Sep 01, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±6.6% | -9.1% | fuera | 320.00 → 290.74 |
| Aug 31, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±6.6% | -11.4% | fuera | 328.12 → 290.74 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±0.2% | -0.1% | dentro | 283.20 → 282.85 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±1.5% | +0.0% | dentro | 282.79 → 282.85 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±3.5% | -7.4% | fuera | 305.30 → 282.85 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±3.5% | -7.5% | fuera | 305.87 → 282.85 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±3.6% | -4.8% | fuera | 297.20 → 282.85 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±3.8% | -5.7% | fuera | 300.00 → 282.85 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±4.1% | -6.6% | fuera | 302.99 → 282.85 |
Los resultados comparan el rango registrado con el precio de cierre en el día de expiración. La versión del método se muestra por fila cuando difiere; actual: em-1.0.