FIVE historial de movimiento esperado Five Below, Inc.
Cada día de negociación, tras el cierre, registramos lo que el mercado de opciones estaba descontando — por vencimiento, antes de conocerse el resultado. Cuando un vencimiento finaliza, el resultado se anota junto a la estimación original. Las estimaciones nunca se revisan a posteriori. Cómo interpretar estas estadísticas · registrando desde Aug 31, 2026
Comparaciones resueltas43
Cierre dentro del rango74%
|Real| por debajo de lo esperado74%
Movimiento esperado promedio±7.6%
Movimiento |real| promedio6.3%
Error medio abs.2.1pt
Implícita vs realizada, por vencimiento
Para cada vencimiento: el contorno ámbar es el movimiento esperado registrado más cerca del vencimiento; la barra sólida es lo que la acción hizo realmente. Los valores con signo aparecen bajo las barras.
esperado (registrado)real
Registrado actualmente (pendiente de resultado)
| Instantánea | Vence | DTE | Precio entonces | Movimiento esperado | Rango | Método |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 19 | Nov 20 | 32 | 225.61 | ±9.6% | 203.96–247.26 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 16 | Nov 20 | 35 | 222.72 | ±9.9% | 200.67–244.77 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 14 | Nov 20 | 37 | 218.95 | ±10.2% | 196.70–241.20 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 13 | Nov 20 | 38 | 213.35 | ±10.3% | 191.35–235.35 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 09 | Nov 20 | 42 | 214.73 | ±11.0% | 191.13–238.33 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 08 | Nov 20 | 43 | 209.73 | ±11.2% | 186.23–233.23 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 07 | Nov 20 | 44 | 204.24 | ±11.3% | 181.24–227.24 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 06 | Nov 20 | 45 | 209.92 | ±11.7% | 185.27–234.57 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 05 | Nov 20 | 46 | 215.93 | ±11.3% | 191.43–240.43 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 02 | Nov 20 | 49 | 221.19 | ±11.9% | 194.79–247.59 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 01 | Nov 20 | 50 | 221.17 | ±12.1% | 194.32–248.02 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 23 | Nov 20 | 58 | 229.84 | ±13.2% | 199.59–260.09 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 22 | Nov 20 | 59 | 236.14 | ±13.7% | 203.84–268.44 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 21 | Nov 20 | 60 | 239.06 | ±13.4% | 206.96–271.16 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 18 | Nov 20 | 63 | 236.86 | ±13.4% | 205.06–268.66 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 17 | Nov 20 | 64 | 237.68 | ±13.4% | 205.78–269.58 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 16 | Nov 20 | 65 | 236.59 | ±13.5% | 204.54–268.64 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 15 | Nov 20 | 66 | 247.13 | ±13.6% | 213.43–280.83 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 14 | Nov 20 | 67 | 244.37 | ±13.9% | 210.47–278.27 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 11 | Nov 20 | 70 | 241.28 | ±13.9% | 207.73–274.83 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 10 | Nov 20 | 71 | 247.12 | ±14.2% | 211.97–282.27 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 09 | Nov 20 | 72 | 250.09 | ±14.5% | 213.94–286.24 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 08 | Nov 20 | 73 | 253.00 | ±13.8% | 218.05–287.95 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 07 | Nov 20 | 74 | 248.40 | ±14.4% | 212.55–284.25 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 04 | Nov 20 | 77 | 248.40 | ±14.4% | 212.55–284.25 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 03 | Nov 20 | 78 | 255.00 | ±17.0% | 211.65–298.35 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 02 | Nov 20 | 79 | 257.50 | ±16.8% | 214.15–300.85 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 01 | Nov 20 | 80 | 247.05 | ±16.7% | 205.85–288.25 | em-1.0 |
| Aug 31 | Nov 20 | 81 | 247.95 | ±16.6% | 206.75–289.15 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 19 | Dec 18 | 60 | 225.61 | ±14.9% | 192.01–259.21 | em-1.0 |
Instantáneas resueltas
| Instantánea | Vencido | Esperado | Real | ¿Dentro del rango? | Precio → cierre |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 16, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±1.5% | +0.0% | dentro | 222.72 → 222.72 |
| Oct 14, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±3.0% | +1.7% | dentro | 218.95 → 222.72 |
| Oct 13, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±3.4% | +4.4% | fuera | 213.35 → 222.72 |
| Oct 09, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±4.7% | +3.7% | dentro | 214.73 → 222.72 |
| Oct 08, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±4.7% | +6.2% | fuera | 209.73 → 222.72 |
| Oct 07, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±4.9% | +9.1% | fuera | 204.24 → 222.72 |
| Oct 06, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±5.2% | +6.1% | fuera | 209.92 → 222.72 |
| Oct 05, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±5.9% | +3.1% | dentro | 215.93 → 222.72 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±6.3% | +0.7% | dentro | 221.19 → 222.72 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±6.6% | +0.7% | dentro | 221.17 → 222.72 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±8.5% | -3.1% | dentro | 229.84 → 222.72 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±8.6% | -5.7% | dentro | 236.14 → 222.72 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±8.4% | -6.8% | dentro | 239.06 → 222.72 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±8.8% | -6.0% | dentro | 236.86 → 222.72 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±9.0% | -6.3% | dentro | 237.68 → 222.72 |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±9.3% | -5.9% | dentro | 236.59 → 222.72 |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±9.1% | -9.9% | fuera | 247.13 → 222.72 |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±9.7% | -8.9% | dentro | 244.37 → 222.72 |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±9.8% | -7.7% | dentro | 241.28 → 222.72 |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±10.2% | -9.9% | dentro | 247.12 → 222.72 |
| Sep 09, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±10.3% | -10.9% | fuera | 250.09 → 222.72 |
| Sep 08, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±10.1% | -12.0% | fuera | 253.00 → 222.72 |
| Sep 07, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±10.5% | -10.3% | dentro | 248.40 → 222.72 |
| Sep 04, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±10.5% | -10.3% | dentro | 248.40 → 222.72 |
| Sep 03, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±14.0% | -12.7% | dentro | 255.00 → 222.72 |
| Sep 02, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±13.9% | -13.5% | dentro | 257.50 → 222.72 |
| Sep 01, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±13.6% | -9.8% | dentro | 247.05 → 222.72 |
| Aug 31, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±13.6% | -10.2% | dentro | 247.95 → 222.72 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Sep 18 | ±1.6% | -1.1% | dentro | 236.86 → 234.14 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Sep 18 | ±3.4% | -1.5% | dentro | 237.68 → 234.14 |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Sep 18 | ±3.8% | -1.0% | dentro | 236.59 → 234.14 |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Sep 18 | ±3.4% | -5.3% | fuera | 247.13 → 234.14 |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Sep 18 | ±4.4% | -4.2% | dentro | 244.37 → 234.14 |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Sep 18 | ±4.8% | -3.0% | dentro | 241.28 → 234.14 |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Sep 18 | ±5.2% | -5.3% | fuera | 247.12 → 234.14 |
| Sep 09, 2026 | Sep 18 | ±5.3% | -6.4% | fuera | 250.09 → 234.14 |
| Sep 08, 2026 | Sep 18 | ±5.5% | -7.5% | fuera | 253.00 → 234.14 |
| Sep 07, 2026 | Sep 18 | ±6.0% | -5.7% | dentro | 248.40 → 234.14 |
| Sep 04, 2026 | Sep 18 | ±6.0% | -5.7% | dentro | 248.40 → 234.14 |
| Sep 03, 2026 | Sep 18 | ±11.5% | -8.2% | dentro | 255.00 → 234.14 |
| Sep 02, 2026 | Sep 18 | ±11.4% | -9.1% | dentro | 257.50 → 234.14 |
| Sep 01, 2026 | Sep 18 | ±10.5% | -5.2% | dentro | 247.05 → 234.14 |
| Aug 31, 2026 | Sep 18 | ±10.5% | -5.6% | dentro | 247.95 → 234.14 |
Los resultados comparan el rango registrado con el precio de cierre en el día de expiración. La versión del método se muestra por fila cuando difiere; actual: em-1.0.