AppLovin Corporation (APP)
Overview · Option chain · Volatility · Expected-move history · Earnings
Cboe delayed options data · as of 09:33 UTC · Figures derived from the full chain (2,656 contracts, 18 expirations) · IV own-history percentile appears after 60 recorded days (28 so far)
Expected move · Nov 20, 2026 (32 days)
Methodology →Read from option prices: the at-the-money straddle costs this much, so the market is pricing a move of about that size in either direction by this date. It is an estimate of movement, not a prediction of direction.
Options are pricing a move of about ±19.6% (range 213.77–318.17) by Nov 20, 2026. ATM straddle: 52.20 @ strike 270 · ATM IV: 79.0%.
Probability distribution
Model & assumptions →The curve shows where a lognormal model, fed with current implied volatility, puts the range of outcomes at this expiration. Shaded: the expected-move band.
| Level | vs price | P(above)Model-estimated chance the stock finishes above a level at expiration, derived from current IV under a lognormal model with stated assumptions — an estimate, not a prediction. | P(below) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 239.37 | -10% | 63.1% | 36.9% |
| 252.67 | -5% | 54.1% | 45.9% |
| 265.97 | +0% | 45.3% | 54.7% |
| 279.27 | +5% | 37.2% | 62.8% |
| 292.57 | +10% | 30.0% | 70.0% |
Model-estimated probabilities of finishing above/below each level at expiration: estimates under stated assumptions, not predictions.
Probability explorer
Drag the slider to any level and see the model-estimated chance the stock finishes above or below it at the selected expiration.
Horizon: Nov 20, 2026 · lognormal model with zero drift: an estimate, not a prediction. Assumptions
Expirations
Open the chain →| Expires | DTEDays to expiration, in calendar days. | Implied move | ATM IV | Open int. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 23, 2026 | 4 | ±6.1% | 54.8% | 14.4K |
| Oct 30, 2026 | 11 | ±8.5% | 54.4% | 17.0K |
| Nov 06, 2026 | 18 | ±17.3% | 90.5% | 9,905 |
| Nov 13, 2026 | 25 | ±18.2% | 82.3% | 3,203 |
| Nov 20, 2026 | 32 | ±19.6% | 79.0% | 73.3K |
| Nov 27, 2026 | 39 | ±19.7% | 73.0% | 3,173 |
| Dec 18, 2026 | 60 | ±22.7% | 68.2% | 45.4K |
| Jan 15, 2027 | 88 | ±26.0% | 65.2% | 68.6K |
| Feb 19, 2027 | 123 | ±31.5% | 67.3% | 16.2K |
| Mar 19, 2027 | 151 | ±34.8% | 67.5% | 15.6K |
Open interest by strike · Nov 20
Where option positions are concentrated. Teal bars are calls, red bars are puts; the dashed line is the current price.
Largest open-interest concentrations (all expirations ≤ 60 days): 200 P · 20.6K250 P · 6,916270 P · 5,198280 P · 4,160260 P · 3,942
IV term structure
Volatility page →At-the-money implied volatility for each expiration. A hump around a date often marks a scheduled event the market is pricing.
When does open interest expire?
Implied vs realized volatility
HV from our stored daily closes (annualized); IV30 interpolated from the chain. Method
Price, last 60 sessions
Daily closes; Financial Modeling Prep.
Track record
Full history →Of 93 recorded snapshot-versus-outcome comparisons so far, the close landed inside the expected range 59.1% of the time.
Past earnings reactions
Avg |reaction| 16.4% · median 15.1% (21 reports). Two-session close-to-close window; definition
About AppLovin Corporation
AppLovin Corporation provides a specialized software platform focused on empowering mobile application developers to enhance the marketing and revenue generation of their products. With operations spanning the United States and international markets, the company assists mobile app developers worldwide. Among its core software offerings is AppDiscovery, a marketing solution that intelligently connects advertiser demand with publisher supply through an auction-based model. Another key product is Adjust, an analytics platform that enables marketers to scale their mobile apps by offering capabilities for performance measurement, campaign optimization, and user data protection. Additionally, MAX is an in-app bidding software engineered to maximize the value derived from an app's advertising inventory by facilitating real-time competitive auctions. Its client base is broad, serving advertisers, publishers, internet platforms, and other stakeholders. Founded in 2011, the enterprise maintains its headquarters in Palo Alto, California.
Technology · Software - Application · NASDAQ · Profile: Financial Modeling Prep
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