Adobe Inc. (ADBE)
Overview · Option chain · Volatility · Expected-move history · Earnings
Cboe delayed options data · as of 21:48 UTC · Figures derived from the full chain (2,252 contracts, 19 expirations) · IV own-history percentile appears after 60 recorded days (4 so far)
Expected move — Sep 18, 2026 (15 days)
Methodology →Read from option prices: the at-the-money straddle costs this much, so the market is pricing a move of about that size in either direction by this date. It is an estimate of movement, not a prediction of direction.
Options are pricing a move of about ±9.8% (range 253.32–308.68) by Sep 18, 2026. ATM straddle: 27.68 @ strike 280 · ATM IV: 59.4%.
Probability distribution
Model & assumptions →The curve shows where a lognormal model, fed with current implied volatility, puts the range of outcomes at this expiration. Shaded: the expected-move band.
| Level | vs price | P(above)Model-estimated chance the stock finishes above a level at expiration, derived from current IV under a lognormal model with stated assumptions — an estimate, not a prediction. | P(below) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 252.90 | -10% | 79.2% | 20.8% |
| 266.95 | -5% | 64.3% | 35.7% |
| 281.00 | +0% | 47.6% | 52.4% |
| 295.05 | +5% | 32.1% | 67.9% |
| 309.10 | +10% | 19.7% | 80.3% |
Model-estimated probabilities of finishing above/below each level at expiration — estimates under stated assumptions, not predictions.
Probability explorer
Drag the slider to any level and see the model-estimated chance the stock finishes above or below it at the selected expiration.
Horizon: Sep 18, 2026 · lognormal model, zero drift — an estimate, not a prediction. Assumptions
Expirations
Open the chain →| Expires | DTEDays to expiration, in calendar days. | Implied move | ATM IV | Open int. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 04, 2026 | 1 | ±2.7% | 48.1% | 23.6K |
| Sep 11, 2026 | 8 | ±8.4% | 69.2% | 15.7K |
| Sep 18, 2026 | 15 | ±9.8% | 59.4% | 126.0K |
| Sep 25, 2026 | 22 | ±10.7% | 53.7% | 6,930 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | 29 | ±11.6% | 50.7% | 3,805 |
| Oct 09, 2026 | 36 | ±12.9% | 50.4% | 4,677 |
| Oct 16, 2026 | 43 | ±13.5% | 48.4% | 78.3K |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 50 | ±14.4% | 47.9% | 0 |
| Nov 20, 2026 | 78 | ±17.1% | 45.6% | 55.9K |
| Dec 18, 2026 | 106 | ±20.6% | 47.4% | 78.5K |
| Jan 15, 2027 | 134 | ±22.3% | 45.6% | 119.6K |
| Feb 19, 2027 | 169 | ±24.2% | 44.0% | 6,166 |
Open interest by strike — Sep 18
Where option positions are concentrated. Teal bars are calls, red bars are puts; the dashed line is the current price.
Largest open-interest concentrations (all expirations ≤ 60 days): 210 P · 22.3K160 P · 18.9K300 C · 12.6K280 P · 8,567320 C · 8,514
IV term structure
Volatility page →At-the-money implied volatility for each expiration. A hump around a date often marks a scheduled event the market is pricing.
When does open interest expire?
Implied vs realized volatility
HV from our stored daily closes (annualized); IV30 interpolated from the chain. Method
Price, last 60 sessions
Track record
Full history →Every trading day we record what the options market is pricing for each expiration — before the outcome is known. Once expirations start resolving, this section compares expected versus actual, and the record is never rewritten. Recording since Aug 31, 2026.
Past earnings reactions
Avg |reaction| 7.8% · median 7.1% (20 reports) — two-session close-to-close window; definition
About Adobe Inc.
Adobe Inc. stands as a prominent global software provider, delivering a diverse range of solutions. Its operations are structured into three primary business divisions: Digital Media, Digital Experience, and Publishing and Advertising. The Digital Media segment empowers individuals, teams, and enterprises to generate, disseminate, and amplify various forms of content through its array of products and services, including the cloud-native Document Cloud platform. Central to this segment is Creative Cloud, its subscription-based flagship, granting access to a comprehensive suite of creative tools. This division caters to a diverse range of users, from professional content creators and marketers to educators, communicators, and general consumers. Adobe's Digital Experience division offers an integrated suite of applications and services designed to empower brands and businesses to craft, orchestrate, assess, and enhance customer journeys, from initial analytical insights to final commercial transactions. It serves a broad professional base including marketing teams, advertisers, agencies, data scientists, and senior executives. The Publishing and Advertising segment provides specialize
Technology · Software - Application · NASDAQ · Profile: Financial Modeling Prep
ADBE news
All news →Adobe names Anil Chakravarthy as CEO, replacing Shantanu Narayen
Adobe announced Anil Chakravarthy as its next CEO, replacing Shantanu Narayen, who announced his departure last March.
CNBC · 20:52 UTC ↗Related securities — Technology
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