Adobe Inc. (ADBE)
Overview · Option chain · Volatility · Expected-move history · Earnings
Cboe delayed options data · as of 09:33 UTC · Figures derived from the full chain (1,988 contracts, 17 expirations) · IV own-history percentile appears after 60 recorded days (28 so far)
Expected move · Nov 20, 2026 (32 days)
Methodology →Read from option prices: the at-the-money straddle costs this much, so the market is pricing a move of about that size in either direction by this date. It is an estimate of movement, not a prediction of direction.
Options are pricing a move of about ±10.4% (range 218.12–268.68) by Nov 20, 2026. ATM straddle: 25.27 @ strike 245 · ATM IV: 41.6%.
Probability distribution
Model & assumptions →The curve shows where a lognormal model, fed with current implied volatility, puts the range of outcomes at this expiration. Shaded: the expected-move band.
| Level | vs price | P(above)Model-estimated chance the stock finishes above a level at expiration, derived from current IV under a lognormal model with stated assumptions — an estimate, not a prediction. | P(below) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 219.06 | -10% | 78.6% | 21.4% |
| 231.23 | -5% | 63.9% | 36.1% |
| 243.40 | +0% | 47.5% | 52.5% |
| 255.57 | +5% | 32.4% | 67.6% |
| 267.74 | +10% | 20.2% | 79.8% |
Model-estimated probabilities of finishing above/below each level at expiration: estimates under stated assumptions, not predictions.
Probability explorer
Drag the slider to any level and see the model-estimated chance the stock finishes above or below it at the selected expiration.
Horizon: Nov 20, 2026 · lognormal model with zero drift: an estimate, not a prediction. Assumptions
Expirations
Open the chain →| Expires | DTEDays to expiration, in calendar days. | Implied move | ATM IV | Open int. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 23, 2026 | 4 | ±4.4% | 38.6% | 15.9K |
| Oct 30, 2026 | 11 | ±6.7% | 42.2% | 13.3K |
| Nov 06, 2026 | 18 | ±8.2% | 42.6% | 4,442 |
| Nov 13, 2026 | 25 | ±9.9% | 44.5% | 1,875 |
| Nov 20, 2026 | 32 | ±10.4% | 41.6% | 83.8K |
| Nov 27, 2026 | 39 | ±11.5% | 42.1% | 887 |
| Dec 18, 2026 | 60 | ±15.3% | 45.6% | 107.3K |
| Jan 15, 2027 | 88 | ±17.4% | 43.3% | 134.9K |
| Feb 19, 2027 | 123 | ±20.0% | 42.3% | 9,433 |
| Mar 19, 2027 | 151 | ±23.2% | 44.6% | 25.0K |
| Apr 16, 2027 | 179 | ±24.7% | 43.5% | 3,550 |
Open interest by strike · Nov 20
Where option positions are concentrated. Teal bars are calls, red bars are puts; the dashed line is the current price.
Largest open-interest concentrations (all expirations ≤ 60 days): 260 C · 10.2K250 C · 8,141220 P · 7,014210 P · 6,860270 C · 5,934
IV term structure
Volatility page →At-the-money implied volatility for each expiration. A hump around a date often marks a scheduled event the market is pricing.
When does open interest expire?
Implied vs realized volatility
HV from our stored daily closes (annualized); IV30 interpolated from the chain. Method
Price, last 60 sessions
Daily closes; Financial Modeling Prep.
Track record
Full history →Of 93 recorded snapshot-versus-outcome comparisons so far, the close landed inside the expected range 61.3% of the time.
Past earnings reactions
Avg |reaction| 7.5% · median 6.8% (21 reports). Two-session close-to-close window; definition
About Adobe Inc.
Adobe Inc. stands as a prominent global software provider, delivering a diverse range of solutions. Its operations are structured into three primary business divisions: Digital Media, Digital Experience, and Publishing and Advertising. The Digital Media segment empowers individuals, teams, and enterprises to generate, disseminate, and amplify various forms of content through its array of products and services, including the cloud-native Document Cloud platform. Central to this segment is Creative Cloud, its subscription-based flagship, granting access to a comprehensive suite of creative tools. This division caters to a diverse range of users, from professional content creators and marketers to educators, communicators, and general consumers. Adobe's Digital Experience division offers an integrated suite of applications and services designed to empower brands and businesses to craft, orchestrate, assess, and enhance customer journeys, from initial analytical insights to final commercial transactions. It serves a broad professional base including marketing teams, advertisers, agencies, data scientists, and senior executives. The Publishing and Advertising segment provides specialize
Technology · Software - Application · NASDAQ · Profile: Financial Modeling Prep
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