ABBV historial de movimiento esperado AbbVie Inc.
Cada día de negociación, tras el cierre, registramos lo que el mercado de opciones estaba descontando — por vencimiento, antes de conocerse el resultado. Cuando un vencimiento finaliza, el resultado se anota junto a la estimación original. Las estimaciones nunca se revisan a posteriori. Cómo interpretar estas estadísticas · registrando desde Aug 31, 2026
Comparaciones resueltas121
Cierre dentro del rango55%
|Real| por debajo de lo esperado55%
Movimiento esperado promedio±4.1%
Movimiento |real| promedio4.1%
Error medio abs.2.1pt
Implícita vs realizada, por vencimiento
Para cada vencimiento: el contorno ámbar es el movimiento esperado registrado más cerca del vencimiento; la barra sólida es lo que la acción hizo realmente. Los valores con signo aparecen bajo las barras.
esperado (registrado)real
Registrado actualmente (pendiente de resultado)
| Instantánea | Vence | DTE | Precio entonces | Movimiento esperado | Rango | Método |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 19 | Oct 23 | 4 | 282.56 | ±2.3% | 276.09–289.04 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 16 | Oct 23 | 7 | 285.42 | ±3.1% | 276.64–294.19 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 14 | Oct 23 | 9 | 281.20 | ±3.6% | 270.98–291.43 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 13 | Oct 23 | 10 | 274.82 | ±3.5% | 265.14–284.49 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 09 | Oct 23 | 14 | 275.72 | ±3.8% | 265.12–286.32 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 08 | Oct 23 | 15 | 271.85 | ±4.3% | 260.25–283.45 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 07 | Oct 23 | 16 | 271.36 | ±4.6% | 258.88–283.83 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 06 | Oct 23 | 17 | 266.86 | ±4.5% | 254.98–278.73 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 05 | Oct 23 | 18 | 265.00 | ±4.4% | 253.43–276.57 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 02 | Oct 23 | 21 | 262.82 | ±4.6% | 250.72–274.92 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 01 | Oct 23 | 22 | 260.46 | ±5.0% | 247.46–273.46 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 23 | Oct 23 | 30 | 265.21 | ±6.1% | 249.01–281.41 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 22 | Oct 23 | 31 | 265.48 | ±6.1% | 249.35–281.61 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 21 | Oct 23 | 32 | 264.34 | ±6.2% | 247.99–280.69 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 18 | Oct 23 | 35 | 265.78 | ±6.4% | 248.73–282.83 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 17 | Oct 23 | 36 | 263.32 | ±6.5% | 246.22–280.42 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 16 | Oct 23 | 37 | 263.92 | ±6.6% | 246.39–281.44 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 15 | Oct 23 | 38 | 262.19 | ±7.1% | 243.64–280.74 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 14 | Oct 23 | 39 | 261.56 | ±6.8% | 243.78–279.33 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 11 | Oct 23 | 42 | 257.20 | ±7.1% | 238.90–275.50 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 10 | Oct 23 | 43 | 252.45 | ±7.1% | 234.43–270.48 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 09 | Oct 23 | 44 | 249.45 | ±7.4% | 231.03–267.88 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 08 | Oct 23 | 45 | 250.00 | ±7.7% | 230.88–269.12 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 07 | Oct 23 | 46 | 256.53 | ±7.8% | 236.63–276.43 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 04 | Oct 23 | 49 | 256.12 | ±7.7% | 236.29–275.94 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 03 | Oct 23 | 50 | 260.21 | ±7.6% | 240.49–279.94 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 19 | Oct 30 | 11 | 282.56 | ±5.0% | 268.46–296.66 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 16 | Oct 30 | 14 | 285.42 | ±5.7% | 269.12–301.72 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 14 | Oct 30 | 16 | 281.20 | ±5.9% | 264.57–297.82 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 13 | Oct 30 | 17 | 274.82 | ±5.8% | 258.97–290.67 | em-1.0 |
Instantáneas resueltas
| Instantánea | Vencido | Esperado | Real | ¿Dentro del rango? | Precio → cierre |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 16, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±0.4% | +0.0% | dentro | 285.42 → 285.42 |
| Oct 14, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±1.9% | +1.5% | dentro | 281.20 → 285.42 |
| Oct 13, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±2.3% | +3.9% | fuera | 274.82 → 285.42 |
| Oct 09, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±2.7% | +3.5% | fuera | 275.72 → 285.42 |
| Oct 08, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±3.2% | +5.0% | fuera | 271.85 → 285.42 |
| Oct 07, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±3.3% | +5.2% | fuera | 271.36 → 285.42 |
| Oct 06, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±3.6% | +7.0% | fuera | 266.86 → 285.42 |
| Oct 05, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±3.5% | +7.7% | fuera | 265.00 → 285.42 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±4.0% | +8.6% | fuera | 262.82 → 285.42 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±4.3% | +9.6% | fuera | 260.46 → 285.42 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±5.5% | +7.6% | fuera | 265.21 → 285.42 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±5.4% | +7.5% | fuera | 265.48 → 285.42 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±5.4% | +8.0% | fuera | 264.34 → 285.42 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±5.9% | +7.4% | fuera | 265.78 → 285.42 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±6.0% | +8.4% | fuera | 263.32 → 285.42 |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±6.3% | +8.1% | fuera | 263.92 → 285.42 |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±6.4% | +8.9% | fuera | 262.19 → 285.42 |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±6.4% | +9.1% | fuera | 261.56 → 285.42 |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±6.6% | +11.0% | fuera | 257.20 → 285.42 |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±6.7% | +13.1% | fuera | 252.45 → 285.42 |
| Sep 09, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±6.8% | +14.4% | fuera | 249.45 → 285.42 |
| Sep 08, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±7.1% | +14.2% | fuera | 250.00 → 285.42 |
| Sep 07, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±7.2% | +11.3% | fuera | 256.53 → 285.42 |
| Sep 04, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±7.2% | +11.4% | fuera | 256.12 → 285.42 |
| Sep 03, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±7.3% | +9.7% | fuera | 260.21 → 285.42 |
| Sep 02, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±7.2% | +10.0% | fuera | 259.58 → 285.42 |
| Sep 01, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±7.4% | +9.6% | fuera | 260.43 → 285.42 |
| Aug 31, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±7.6% | +10.6% | fuera | 258.13 → 285.42 |
| Oct 09, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±0.6% | +0.3% | dentro | 275.72 → 276.47 |
| Oct 08, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±1.2% | +1.7% | fuera | 271.85 → 276.47 |
| Oct 07, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±1.8% | +1.9% | fuera | 271.36 → 276.47 |
| Oct 06, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±1.8% | +3.6% | fuera | 266.86 → 276.47 |
| Oct 05, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±2.3% | +4.3% | fuera | 265.00 → 276.47 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±2.6% | +5.2% | fuera | 262.82 → 276.47 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±2.9% | +6.1% | fuera | 260.46 → 276.47 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±4.5% | +4.2% | dentro | 265.21 → 276.47 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±4.4% | +4.1% | dentro | 265.48 → 276.47 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±4.7% | +4.6% | dentro | 264.34 → 276.47 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±4.9% | +4.0% | dentro | 265.78 → 276.47 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±5.0% | +5.0% | fuera | 263.32 → 276.47 |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±5.2% | +4.8% | dentro | 263.92 → 276.47 |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±5.7% | +5.4% | dentro | 262.19 → 276.47 |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±5.5% | +5.7% | fuera | 261.56 → 276.47 |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±5.7% | +7.5% | fuera | 257.20 → 276.47 |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±5.9% | +9.5% | fuera | 252.45 → 276.47 |
| Sep 09, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±5.8% | +10.8% | fuera | 249.45 → 276.47 |
| Sep 08, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±6.0% | +10.6% | fuera | 250.00 → 276.47 |
| Sep 07, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±6.3% | +7.8% | fuera | 256.53 → 276.47 |
| Sep 04, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±6.2% | +7.9% | fuera | 256.12 → 276.47 |
| Sep 03, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±6.3% | +6.2% | dentro | 260.21 → 276.47 |
| Sep 02, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±6.2% | +6.5% | fuera | 259.58 → 276.47 |
| Sep 01, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±6.4% | +6.2% | dentro | 260.43 → 276.47 |
| Aug 31, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±6.5% | +7.1% | fuera | 258.13 → 276.47 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±0.6% | +0.0% | dentro | 262.82 → 262.82 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±1.1% | +0.9% | dentro | 260.46 → 262.82 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±3.5% | -0.9% | dentro | 265.21 → 262.82 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±3.4% | -1.0% | dentro | 265.48 → 262.82 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±3.6% | -0.6% | dentro | 264.34 → 262.82 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±4.0% | -1.1% | dentro | 265.78 → 262.82 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±4.1% | -0.2% | dentro | 263.32 → 262.82 |
Los resultados comparan el rango registrado con el precio de cierre en el día de expiración. La versión del método se muestra por fila cuando difiere; actual: em-1.0.