YUM 预期波动历史 Yum! Brands, Inc.
每个交易日收盘后，我们记录期权市场对各到期日的定价——均在结果揭晓前留存。到期日过后，实际结果会附记于原始预估值旁。预估值在事后绝不修改。 如何解读这些统计数据 · 记录开始于 Aug 31, 2026
已解决的比较项15
收盘价处于区间内33%
|实际值| 低于预期值33%
平均预期波动幅度±3.4%
平均|实际|波动幅度5.8%
平均绝对误差3.4pt
隐含与已实现波动率，按到期日
每个到期日：琥珀色轮廓框为最接近到期时记录的预期涨跌幅；实心柱为股票实际涨跌幅。柱形下方标注带符号的具体数值。
预期（已记录）实际
已记录（等待结果）
| 快照 | 到期时间 | DTE | 当时现货价 | 预期涨跌幅 | 区间 | 方法 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 16 | Oct 16 | 0 | 150.51 | ±0.6% | 149.66–151.36 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 14 | Oct 16 | 2 | 146.69 | ±2.2% | 143.41–149.97 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 13 | Oct 16 | 3 | 147.06 | ±2.7% | 143.06–151.06 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 09 | Oct 16 | 7 | 144.82 | ±2.6% | 141.07–148.57 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 08 | Oct 16 | 8 | 143.00 | ±3.1% | 138.60–147.40 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 07 | Oct 16 | 9 | 140.35 | ±3.6% | 135.35–145.35 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 06 | Oct 16 | 10 | 139.84 | ±3.4% | 135.06–144.62 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 05 | Oct 16 | 11 | 136.99 | ±3.7% | 131.87–142.12 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 02 | Oct 16 | 14 | 136.12 | ±4.4% | 130.15–142.09 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 01 | Oct 16 | 15 | 136.69 | ±4.6% | 130.47–142.91 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 23 | Oct 16 | 23 | 140.70 | ±5.1% | 133.50–147.90 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 22 | Oct 16 | 24 | 140.70 | ±5.1% | 133.50–147.90 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 21 | Oct 16 | 25 | 139.33 | ±5.5% | 131.68–146.98 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 18 | Oct 16 | 28 | 136.90 | ±5.7% | 129.07–144.72 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 17 | Oct 16 | 29 | 138.50 | ±6.1% | 130.10–146.90 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 16 | Oct 16 | 30 | 138.65 | ±6.1% | 130.25–147.05 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 15 | Oct 16 | 31 | 140.87 | ±6.5% | 131.72–150.02 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 14 | Oct 16 | 32 | 140.87 | ±6.5% | 131.72–150.02 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 11 | Oct 16 | 35 | 143.89 | ±6.7% | 134.29–153.49 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 10 | Oct 16 | 36 | 145.16 | ±6.1% | 136.31–154.01 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 09 | Oct 16 | 37 | 149.51 | ±6.6% | 139.71–159.31 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 08 | Oct 16 | 38 | 150.71 | ±6.7% | 140.61–160.81 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 07 | Oct 16 | 39 | 150.71 | ±6.7% | 140.61–160.81 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 04 | Oct 16 | 42 | 152.03 | ±7.0% | 141.38–162.68 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 03 | Oct 16 | 43 | 152.03 | ±7.0% | 141.38–162.68 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 02 | Oct 16 | 44 | 152.03 | ±7.0% | 141.38–162.68 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 01 | Oct 16 | 45 | 153.86 | ±7.1% | 142.91–164.81 | em-1.0 |
| Aug 31 | Oct 16 | 46 | 153.86 | ±7.1% | 142.91–164.81 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 16 | Nov 20 | 35 | 150.51 | ±7.0% | 140.01–161.01 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 14 | Nov 20 | 37 | 146.69 | ±7.6% | 135.59–157.79 | em-1.0 |
已归档快照
| 快照 | 已到期 | 预期值 | 实际值 | 在区间内？ | 现货价 → 收盘价 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 18, 2026 | Sep 18 | ±1.3% | +0.8% | 区间内 | 136.90 → 137.99 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Sep 18 | ±2.3% | -0.4% | 区间内 | 138.50 → 137.99 |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Sep 18 | ±2.1% | -0.5% | 区间内 | 138.65 → 137.99 |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Sep 18 | ±3.3% | -2.0% | 区间内 | 140.87 → 137.99 |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Sep 18 | ±3.3% | -2.0% | 区间内 | 140.87 → 137.99 |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Sep 18 | ±3.4% | -4.1% | 区间外 | 143.89 → 137.99 |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Sep 18 | ±3.2% | -4.9% | 区间外 | 145.16 → 137.99 |
| Sep 09, 2026 | Sep 18 | ±3.4% | -7.7% | 区间外 | 149.51 → 137.99 |
| Sep 08, 2026 | Sep 18 | ±3.4% | -8.4% | 区间外 | 150.71 → 137.99 |
| Sep 07, 2026 | Sep 18 | ±3.4% | -8.4% | 区间外 | 150.71 → 137.99 |
| Sep 04, 2026 | Sep 18 | ±4.3% | -9.2% | 区间外 | 152.03 → 137.99 |
| Sep 03, 2026 | Sep 18 | ±4.3% | -9.2% | 区间外 | 152.03 → 137.99 |
| Sep 02, 2026 | Sep 18 | ±4.3% | -9.2% | 区间外 | 152.03 → 137.99 |
| Sep 01, 2026 | Sep 18 | ±4.3% | -10.3% | 区间外 | 153.86 → 137.99 |
| Aug 31, 2026 | Sep 18 | ±4.3% | -10.3% | 区间外 | 153.86 → 137.99 |
结果通过比较记录的价格区间与到期日收盘价得出。各行显示所用方法版本（与当前版本不同时）；当前版本： em-1.0.