XYZ 预期波动历史 Block, Inc.
每个交易日收盘后，我们记录期权市场对各到期日的定价——均在结果揭晓前留存。到期日过后，实际结果会附记于原始预估值旁。预估值在事后绝不修改。 如何解读这些统计数据 · 记录开始于 Aug 31, 2026
已解决的比较项93
收盘价处于区间内81%
|实际值| 低于预期值81%
平均预期波动幅度±5.8%
平均|实际|波动幅度3.8%
平均绝对误差2.5pt
隐含与已实现波动率，按到期日
每个到期日：琥珀色轮廓框为最接近到期时记录的预期涨跌幅；实心柱为股票实际涨跌幅。柱形下方标注带符号的具体数值。
预期（已记录）实际
已记录（等待结果）
| 快照 | 到期时间 | DTE | 当时现货价 | 预期涨跌幅 | 区间 | 方法 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 16 | Oct 16 | 0 | 77.89 | ±1.0% | 77.08–78.70 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 14 | Oct 16 | 2 | 75.85 | ±3.0% | 73.57–78.13 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 13 | Oct 16 | 3 | 76.86 | ±3.2% | 74.38–79.34 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 09 | Oct 16 | 7 | 77.24 | ±3.9% | 74.23–80.25 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 08 | Oct 16 | 8 | 74.78 | ±4.4% | 71.49–78.08 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 07 | Oct 16 | 9 | 76.07 | ±4.4% | 72.71–79.43 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 06 | Oct 16 | 10 | 76.54 | ±4.7% | 72.91–80.17 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 05 | Oct 16 | 11 | 76.00 | ±5.4% | 71.91–80.09 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 02 | Oct 16 | 14 | 74.56 | ±6.2% | 69.95–79.16 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 01 | Oct 16 | 15 | 74.09 | ±7.0% | 68.93–79.25 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 23 | Oct 16 | 23 | 77.23 | ±7.8% | 71.19–83.28 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 22 | Oct 16 | 24 | 77.63 | ±7.8% | 71.61–83.65 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 21 | Oct 16 | 25 | 77.88 | ±8.0% | 71.62–84.14 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 18 | Oct 16 | 28 | 76.86 | ±8.3% | 70.51–83.21 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 17 | Oct 16 | 29 | 76.75 | ±8.4% | 70.33–83.17 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 16 | Oct 16 | 30 | 76.12 | ±8.9% | 69.33–82.92 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 15 | Oct 16 | 31 | 79.37 | ±9.4% | 71.92–86.82 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 14 | Oct 16 | 32 | 79.49 | ±9.5% | 71.97–87.02 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 11 | Oct 16 | 35 | 79.21 | ±9.7% | 71.56–86.86 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 10 | Oct 16 | 36 | 78.34 | ±10.5% | 70.09–86.59 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 09 | Oct 16 | 37 | 79.94 | ±10.4% | 71.67–88.22 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 08 | Oct 16 | 38 | 80.38 | ±10.4% | 72.03–88.72 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 07 | Oct 16 | 39 | 82.65 | ±10.6% | 73.88–91.42 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 04 | Oct 16 | 42 | 82.76 | ±10.6% | 73.98–91.53 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 03 | Oct 16 | 43 | 83.40 | ±10.8% | 74.40–92.40 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 02 | Oct 16 | 44 | 82.50 | ±10.8% | 73.55–91.45 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 01 | Oct 16 | 45 | 77.86 | ±10.8% | 69.46–86.26 | em-1.0 |
| Aug 31 | Oct 16 | 46 | 81.38 | ±11.0% | 72.40–90.35 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 16 | Oct 23 | 7 | 77.89 | ±4.8% | 74.17–81.61 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 14 | Oct 23 | 9 | 75.85 | ±5.3% | 71.80–79.91 | em-1.0 |
已归档快照
| 快照 | 已到期 | 预期值 | 实际值 | 在区间内？ | 现货价 → 收盘价 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 09, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±0.3% | +0.0% | 区间内 | 77.24 → 77.24 |
| Oct 08, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±1.9% | +3.3% | 区间外 | 74.78 → 77.24 |
| Oct 07, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±2.5% | +1.5% | 区间内 | 76.07 → 77.24 |
| Oct 06, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±3.0% | +0.9% | 区间内 | 76.54 → 77.24 |
| Oct 05, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±3.4% | +1.6% | 区间内 | 76.00 → 77.24 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±4.2% | +3.6% | 区间内 | 74.56 → 77.24 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±5.0% | +4.3% | 区间内 | 74.09 → 77.24 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±6.7% | +0.0% | 区间内 | 77.23 → 77.24 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±6.6% | -0.5% | 区间内 | 77.63 → 77.24 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±6.9% | -0.8% | 区间内 | 77.88 → 77.24 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±7.2% | +0.5% | 区间内 | 76.86 → 77.24 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±7.4% | +0.6% | 区间内 | 76.75 → 77.24 |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±7.9% | +1.5% | 区间内 | 76.12 → 77.24 |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±8.1% | -2.7% | 区间内 | 79.37 → 77.24 |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±8.4% | -2.8% | 区间内 | 79.49 → 77.24 |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±8.5% | -2.5% | 区间内 | 79.21 → 77.24 |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±9.2% | -1.4% | 区间内 | 78.34 → 77.24 |
| Sep 09, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±9.4% | -3.4% | 区间内 | 79.94 → 77.24 |
| Sep 08, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±9.4% | -3.9% | 区间内 | 80.38 → 77.24 |
| Sep 07, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±9.5% | -6.5% | 区间内 | 82.65 → 77.24 |
| Sep 04, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±9.5% | -6.7% | 区间内 | 82.76 → 77.24 |
| Sep 03, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±9.7% | -7.4% | 区间内 | 83.40 → 77.24 |
| Sep 02, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±9.7% | -6.4% | 区间内 | 82.50 → 77.24 |
| Sep 01, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±9.8% | -0.8% | 区间内 | 77.86 → 77.24 |
| Aug 31, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±9.9% | -5.1% | 区间内 | 81.38 → 77.24 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±0.9% | -0.3% | 区间内 | 74.56 → 74.33 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±2.0% | +0.3% | 区间内 | 74.09 → 74.33 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±5.2% | -3.8% | 区间内 | 77.23 → 74.33 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±5.1% | -4.3% | 区间内 | 77.63 → 74.33 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±5.6% | -4.6% | 区间内 | 77.88 → 74.33 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±5.9% | -3.3% | 区间内 | 76.86 → 74.33 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±6.1% | -3.2% | 区间内 | 76.75 → 74.33 |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±6.8% | -2.4% | 区间内 | 76.12 → 74.33 |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±7.2% | -6.3% | 区间内 | 79.37 → 74.33 |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±7.2% | -6.5% | 区间内 | 79.49 → 74.33 |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±7.4% | -6.2% | 区间内 | 79.21 → 74.33 |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±8.2% | -5.1% | 区间内 | 78.34 → 74.33 |
| Sep 09, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±8.4% | -7.0% | 区间内 | 79.94 → 74.33 |
| Sep 08, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±8.5% | -7.5% | 区间内 | 80.38 → 74.33 |
| Sep 07, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±8.4% | -10.1% | 区间外 | 82.65 → 74.33 |
| Sep 04, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±8.4% | -10.2% | 区间外 | 82.76 → 74.33 |
| Sep 03, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±8.7% | -10.9% | 区间外 | 83.40 → 74.33 |
| Sep 02, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±8.7% | -9.9% | 区间外 | 82.50 → 74.33 |
| Sep 01, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±8.8% | -4.5% | 区间内 | 77.86 → 74.33 |
| Aug 31, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±8.9% | -8.7% | 区间内 | 81.38 → 74.33 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±3.2% | -1.1% | 区间内 | 77.23 → 76.42 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±3.1% | -1.6% | 区间内 | 77.63 → 76.42 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±3.5% | -1.9% | 区间内 | 77.88 → 76.42 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±4.1% | -0.6% | 区间内 | 76.86 → 76.42 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±4.4% | -0.4% | 区间内 | 76.75 → 76.42 |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±5.1% | +0.4% | 区间内 | 76.12 → 76.42 |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±5.5% | -3.7% | 区间内 | 79.37 → 76.42 |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±5.7% | -3.9% | 区间内 | 79.49 → 76.42 |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±6.1% | -3.5% | 区间内 | 79.21 → 76.42 |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±6.9% | -2.5% | 区间内 | 78.34 → 76.42 |
| Sep 09, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±7.0% | -4.4% | 区间内 | 79.94 → 76.42 |
| Sep 08, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±7.1% | -4.9% | 区间内 | 80.38 → 76.42 |
| Sep 07, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±7.3% | -7.5% | 区间外 | 82.65 → 76.42 |
| Sep 04, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±7.3% | -7.7% | 区间外 | 82.76 → 76.42 |
| Sep 03, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±7.5% | -8.4% | 区间外 | 83.40 → 76.42 |
结果通过比较记录的价格区间与到期日收盘价得出。各行显示所用方法版本（与当前版本不同时）；当前版本： em-1.0.