XYZ histórico de movimento esperado Block, Inc.
A cada dia útil, após o fechamento, registramos o que o mercado de opções estava precificando — por expiração, antes de o resultado ser conhecido. Quando uma expiração passa, o resultado é registrado ao lado da estimativa original. As estimativas nunca são revisadas após o fato. Como interpretar estas estatísticas · registrando desde Aug 31, 2026
Comparações resolvidas121
Fechar dentro do intervalo85%
|Real| abaixo do esperado85%
Movimento esperado médio±6.2%
Movimento |real| médio3.5%
Erro médio absoluto3.1pt
Implícita vs. realizada, por vencimento
Para cada expiração: o contorno âmbar é o movimento esperado registrado mais próximo do vencimento; a barra sólida é o que a ação realmente fez. Os valores com sinal aparecem abaixo das barras.
esperado (registrado)real
Atualmente registado (a aguardar resultado)
| Snapshot | Expira | DTE | Spot na época | Movimento esperado | Intervalo | Método |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 19 | Oct 23 | 4 | 77.50 | ±3.9% | 74.47–80.53 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 16 | Oct 23 | 7 | 77.89 | ±4.8% | 74.17–81.61 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 14 | Oct 23 | 9 | 75.85 | ±5.3% | 71.80–79.91 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 13 | Oct 23 | 10 | 76.86 | ±5.2% | 72.90–80.82 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 09 | Oct 23 | 14 | 77.24 | ±5.7% | 72.84–81.64 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 08 | Oct 23 | 15 | 74.78 | ±6.1% | 70.25–79.31 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 07 | Oct 23 | 16 | 76.07 | ±6.3% | 71.25–80.89 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 06 | Oct 23 | 17 | 76.54 | ±6.7% | 71.44–81.64 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 05 | Oct 23 | 18 | 76.00 | ±7.1% | 70.64–81.36 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 02 | Oct 23 | 21 | 74.56 | ±7.7% | 68.83–80.28 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 01 | Oct 23 | 22 | 74.09 | ±8.0% | 68.17–80.01 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 23 | Oct 23 | 30 | 77.23 | ±9.0% | 70.25–84.21 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 22 | Oct 23 | 31 | 77.63 | ±9.0% | 70.63–84.63 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 21 | Oct 23 | 32 | 77.88 | ±9.1% | 70.83–84.93 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 18 | Oct 23 | 35 | 76.86 | ±9.3% | 69.71–84.01 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 17 | Oct 23 | 36 | 76.75 | ±9.5% | 69.47–84.03 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 16 | Oct 23 | 37 | 76.12 | ±10.0% | 68.50–83.75 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 15 | Oct 23 | 38 | 79.37 | ±10.2% | 71.25–87.50 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 14 | Oct 23 | 39 | 79.49 | ±10.3% | 71.31–87.67 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 11 | Oct 23 | 42 | 79.21 | ±10.6% | 70.83–87.58 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 10 | Oct 23 | 43 | 78.34 | ±11.3% | 69.47–87.22 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 09 | Oct 23 | 44 | 79.94 | ±11.3% | 70.89–88.99 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 08 | Oct 23 | 45 | 80.38 | ±11.4% | 71.22–89.53 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 07 | Oct 23 | 46 | 82.65 | ±11.5% | 73.17–92.12 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 04 | Oct 23 | 49 | 82.76 | ±11.4% | 73.28–92.23 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 03 | Oct 23 | 50 | 83.40 | ±11.6% | 73.75–93.05 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 19 | Oct 30 | 11 | 77.50 | ±6.2% | 72.71–82.29 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 16 | Oct 30 | 14 | 77.89 | ±7.2% | 72.30–83.48 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 14 | Oct 30 | 16 | 75.85 | ±7.4% | 70.23–81.47 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 13 | Oct 30 | 17 | 76.86 | ±6.9% | 71.55–82.17 | em-1.0 |
Snapshots encerrados
| Snapshot | Expirado | Esperado | Real | Dentro do intervalo? | Spot → fechamento |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 16, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±1.0% | +0.0% | dentro | 77.89 → 77.89 |
| Oct 14, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±3.0% | +2.7% | dentro | 75.85 → 77.89 |
| Oct 13, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±3.2% | +1.3% | dentro | 76.86 → 77.89 |
| Oct 09, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±3.9% | +0.8% | dentro | 77.24 → 77.89 |
| Oct 08, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±4.4% | +4.2% | dentro | 74.78 → 77.89 |
| Oct 07, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±4.4% | +2.4% | dentro | 76.07 → 77.89 |
| Oct 06, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±4.7% | +1.8% | dentro | 76.54 → 77.89 |
| Oct 05, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±5.4% | +2.5% | dentro | 76.00 → 77.89 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±6.2% | +4.5% | dentro | 74.56 → 77.89 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±7.0% | +5.1% | dentro | 74.09 → 77.89 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±7.8% | +0.8% | dentro | 77.23 → 77.89 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±7.8% | +0.3% | dentro | 77.63 → 77.89 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±8.0% | +0.0% | dentro | 77.88 → 77.89 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±8.3% | +1.3% | dentro | 76.86 → 77.89 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±8.4% | +1.5% | dentro | 76.75 → 77.89 |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±8.9% | +2.3% | dentro | 76.12 → 77.89 |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±9.4% | -1.9% | dentro | 79.37 → 77.89 |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±9.5% | -2.0% | dentro | 79.49 → 77.89 |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±9.7% | -1.7% | dentro | 79.21 → 77.89 |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±10.5% | -0.6% | dentro | 78.34 → 77.89 |
| Sep 09, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±10.4% | -2.6% | dentro | 79.94 → 77.89 |
| Sep 08, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±10.4% | -3.1% | dentro | 80.38 → 77.89 |
| Sep 07, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±10.6% | -5.8% | dentro | 82.65 → 77.89 |
| Sep 04, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±10.6% | -5.9% | dentro | 82.76 → 77.89 |
| Sep 03, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±10.8% | -6.6% | dentro | 83.40 → 77.89 |
| Sep 02, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±10.8% | -5.6% | dentro | 82.50 → 77.89 |
| Sep 01, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±10.8% | +0.0% | dentro | 77.86 → 77.89 |
| Aug 31, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±11.0% | -4.3% | dentro | 81.38 → 77.89 |
| Oct 09, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±0.3% | +0.0% | dentro | 77.24 → 77.24 |
| Oct 08, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±1.9% | +3.3% | fora | 74.78 → 77.24 |
| Oct 07, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±2.5% | +1.5% | dentro | 76.07 → 77.24 |
| Oct 06, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±3.0% | +0.9% | dentro | 76.54 → 77.24 |
| Oct 05, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±3.4% | +1.6% | dentro | 76.00 → 77.24 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±4.2% | +3.6% | dentro | 74.56 → 77.24 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±5.0% | +4.3% | dentro | 74.09 → 77.24 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±6.7% | +0.0% | dentro | 77.23 → 77.24 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±6.6% | -0.5% | dentro | 77.63 → 77.24 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±6.9% | -0.8% | dentro | 77.88 → 77.24 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±7.2% | +0.5% | dentro | 76.86 → 77.24 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±7.4% | +0.6% | dentro | 76.75 → 77.24 |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±7.9% | +1.5% | dentro | 76.12 → 77.24 |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±8.1% | -2.7% | dentro | 79.37 → 77.24 |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±8.4% | -2.8% | dentro | 79.49 → 77.24 |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±8.5% | -2.5% | dentro | 79.21 → 77.24 |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±9.2% | -1.4% | dentro | 78.34 → 77.24 |
| Sep 09, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±9.4% | -3.4% | dentro | 79.94 → 77.24 |
| Sep 08, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±9.4% | -3.9% | dentro | 80.38 → 77.24 |
| Sep 07, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±9.5% | -6.5% | dentro | 82.65 → 77.24 |
| Sep 04, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±9.5% | -6.7% | dentro | 82.76 → 77.24 |
| Sep 03, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±9.7% | -7.4% | dentro | 83.40 → 77.24 |
| Sep 02, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±9.7% | -6.4% | dentro | 82.50 → 77.24 |
| Sep 01, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±9.8% | -0.8% | dentro | 77.86 → 77.24 |
| Aug 31, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±9.9% | -5.1% | dentro | 81.38 → 77.24 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±0.9% | -0.3% | dentro | 74.56 → 74.33 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±2.0% | +0.3% | dentro | 74.09 → 74.33 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±5.2% | -3.8% | dentro | 77.23 → 74.33 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±5.1% | -4.3% | dentro | 77.63 → 74.33 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±5.6% | -4.6% | dentro | 77.88 → 74.33 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±5.9% | -3.3% | dentro | 76.86 → 74.33 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±6.1% | -3.2% | dentro | 76.75 → 74.33 |
Os resultados comparam o intervalo registado com o preço de fecho no dia de expiração. A versão do método é indicada por linha quando difere; atual: em-1.0.