XPEV 预期波动历史 XPeng Inc.
每个交易日收盘后，我们记录期权市场对各到期日的定价——均在结果揭晓前留存。到期日过后，实际结果会附记于原始预估值旁。预估值在事后绝不修改。 如何解读这些统计数据 · 记录开始于 Aug 31, 2026
已解决的比较项121
收盘价处于区间内58%
|实际值| 低于预期值58%
平均预期波动幅度±7.8%
平均|实际|波动幅度7.3%
平均绝对误差2.7pt
隐含与已实现波动率，按到期日
每个到期日：琥珀色轮廓框为最接近到期时记录的预期涨跌幅；实心柱为股票实际涨跌幅。柱形下方标注带符号的具体数值。
预期（已记录）实际
已记录（等待结果）
| 快照 | 到期时间 | DTE | 当时现货价 | 预期涨跌幅 | 区间 | 方法 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 19 | Oct 23 | 4 | 9.22 | ±5.6% | 8.70–9.74 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 16 | Oct 23 | 7 | 9.32 | ±5.6% | 8.80–9.84 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 14 | Oct 23 | 9 | 9.39 | ±5.8% | 8.85–9.93 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 13 | Oct 23 | 10 | 9.76 | ±6.2% | 9.15–10.37 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 09 | Oct 23 | 14 | 9.93 | ±6.4% | 9.29–10.56 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 08 | Oct 23 | 15 | 9.55 | ±7.0% | 8.88–10.22 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 07 | Oct 23 | 16 | 9.58 | ±7.3% | 8.88–10.28 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 06 | Oct 23 | 17 | 9.56 | ±8.1% | 8.79–10.33 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 05 | Oct 23 | 18 | 9.40 | ±6.4% | 8.80–10.00 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 02 | Oct 23 | 21 | 9.25 | ±11.4% | 8.20–10.30 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 01 | Oct 23 | 22 | 9.45 | ±6.9% | 8.79–10.11 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 23 | Oct 23 | 30 | 10.47 | ±12.0% | 9.21–11.73 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 22 | Oct 23 | 31 | 10.47 | ±12.0% | 9.21–11.73 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 21 | Oct 23 | 32 | 10.49 | ±11.6% | 9.27–11.71 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 18 | Oct 23 | 35 | 10.57 | ±12.2% | 9.29–11.87 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 17 | Oct 23 | 36 | 10.64 | ±12.8% | 9.28–12.00 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 16 | Oct 23 | 37 | 10.38 | ±11.7% | 9.16–11.60 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 15 | Oct 23 | 38 | 10.26 | ±14.1% | 8.81–11.71 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 14 | Oct 23 | 39 | 10.67 | ±12.1% | 9.37–11.96 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 11 | Oct 23 | 42 | 10.48 | ±13.8% | 9.04–11.93 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 10 | Oct 23 | 43 | 10.42 | ±13.7% | 8.99–11.85 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 09 | Oct 23 | 44 | 10.65 | ±12.5% | 9.31–11.98 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 08 | Oct 23 | 45 | 10.96 | ±14.7% | 9.35–12.57 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 07 | Oct 23 | 46 | 10.97 | ±13.2% | 9.53–12.41 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 04 | Oct 23 | 49 | 10.98 | ±13.2% | 9.54–12.43 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 03 | Oct 23 | 50 | 11.11 | ±27.0% | 8.11–14.11 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 19 | Oct 30 | 11 | 9.22 | ±5.6% | 8.71–9.73 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 16 | Oct 30 | 14 | 9.32 | ±8.7% | 8.51–10.13 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 14 | Oct 30 | 16 | 9.39 | ±7.9% | 8.65–10.13 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 13 | Oct 30 | 17 | 9.76 | ±8.9% | 8.89–10.62 | em-1.0 |
已归档快照
| 快照 | 已到期 | 预期值 | 实际值 | 在区间内？ | 现货价 → 收盘价 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 16, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±3.0% | -1.0% | 区间内 | 9.32 → 9.23 |
| Oct 14, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±3.6% | -1.7% | 区间内 | 9.39 → 9.23 |
| Oct 13, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±4.2% | -5.4% | 区间外 | 9.76 → 9.23 |
| Oct 09, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±4.8% | -7.0% | 区间外 | 9.93 → 9.23 |
| Oct 08, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±5.2% | -3.3% | 区间内 | 9.55 → 9.23 |
| Oct 07, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±5.4% | -3.7% | 区间内 | 9.58 → 9.23 |
| Oct 06, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±5.9% | -3.5% | 区间内 | 9.56 → 9.23 |
| Oct 05, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±6.1% | -1.8% | 区间内 | 9.40 → 9.23 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±7.1% | -0.2% | 区间内 | 9.25 → 9.23 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±7.0% | -2.3% | 区间内 | 9.45 → 9.23 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±10.6% | -11.8% | 区间外 | 10.47 → 9.23 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±10.6% | -11.8% | 区间外 | 10.47 → 9.23 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±10.8% | -12.0% | 区间外 | 10.49 → 9.23 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±11.1% | -12.7% | 区间外 | 10.57 → 9.23 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±12.4% | -13.3% | 区间外 | 10.64 → 9.23 |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±11.0% | -11.1% | 区间外 | 10.38 → 9.23 |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±11.0% | -10.0% | 区间内 | 10.26 → 9.23 |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±11.3% | -13.5% | 区间外 | 10.67 → 9.23 |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±11.9% | -11.9% | 区间外 | 10.48 → 9.23 |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±12.5% | -11.4% | 区间内 | 10.42 → 9.23 |
| Sep 09, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±13.7% | -13.3% | 区间内 | 10.65 → 9.23 |
| Sep 08, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±12.6% | -15.8% | 区间外 | 10.96 → 9.23 |
| Sep 07, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±12.4% | -15.9% | 区间外 | 10.97 → 9.23 |
| Sep 04, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±12.3% | -15.9% | 区间外 | 10.98 → 9.23 |
| Sep 03, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±13.3% | -16.9% | 区间外 | 11.11 → 9.23 |
| Sep 02, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±13.4% | -16.4% | 区间外 | 11.04 → 9.23 |
| Sep 01, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±12.8% | -17.7% | 区间外 | 11.22 → 9.23 |
| Aug 31, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±13.7% | -19.1% | 区间外 | 11.41 → 9.23 |
| Oct 09, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±0.8% | -0.3% | 区间内 | 9.93 → 9.90 |
| Oct 08, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±2.3% | +3.7% | 区间外 | 9.55 → 9.90 |
| Oct 07, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±2.7% | +3.3% | 区间外 | 9.58 → 9.90 |
| Oct 06, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±3.3% | +3.6% | 区间外 | 9.56 → 9.90 |
| Oct 05, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±3.1% | +5.3% | 区间外 | 9.40 → 9.90 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±5.0% | +7.0% | 区间外 | 9.25 → 9.90 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±5.9% | +4.8% | 区间内 | 9.45 → 9.90 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±9.0% | -5.4% | 区间内 | 10.47 → 9.90 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±9.0% | -5.4% | 区间内 | 10.47 → 9.90 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±9.3% | -5.6% | 区间内 | 10.49 → 9.90 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±9.1% | -6.4% | 区间内 | 10.57 → 9.90 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±10.3% | -7.0% | 区间内 | 10.64 → 9.90 |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±10.1% | -4.6% | 区间内 | 10.38 → 9.90 |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±11.0% | -3.5% | 区间内 | 10.26 → 9.90 |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±9.6% | -7.2% | 区间内 | 10.67 → 9.90 |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±10.4% | -5.6% | 区间内 | 10.48 → 9.90 |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±11.7% | -5.0% | 区间内 | 10.42 → 9.90 |
| Sep 09, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±21.5% | -7.0% | 区间内 | 10.65 → 9.90 |
| Sep 08, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±10.5% | -9.7% | 区间内 | 10.96 → 9.90 |
| Sep 07, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±11.8% | -9.8% | 区间内 | 10.97 → 9.90 |
| Sep 04, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±11.7% | -9.8% | 区间内 | 10.98 → 9.90 |
| Sep 03, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±12.6% | -10.9% | 区间内 | 11.11 → 9.90 |
| Sep 02, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±13.5% | -10.4% | 区间内 | 11.04 → 9.90 |
| Sep 01, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±12.0% | -11.8% | 区间内 | 11.22 → 9.90 |
| Aug 31, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±12.5% | -13.2% | 区间外 | 11.41 → 9.90 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±2.9% | +0.0% | 区间内 | 9.25 → 9.25 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±1.9% | -2.1% | 区间外 | 9.45 → 9.25 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±7.1% | -11.7% | 区间外 | 10.47 → 9.25 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±7.1% | -11.7% | 区间外 | 10.47 → 9.25 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±7.2% | -11.8% | 区间外 | 10.49 → 9.25 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±7.6% | -12.5% | 区间外 | 10.57 → 9.25 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±8.2% | -13.1% | 区间外 | 10.64 → 9.25 |
结果通过比较记录的价格区间与到期日收盘价得出。各行显示所用方法版本（与当前版本不同时）；当前版本： em-1.0.