XOM 预期波动历史 Exxonmobil Holdings Corporation
每个交易日收盘后，我们记录期权市场对各到期日的定价——均在结果揭晓前留存。到期日过后，实际结果会附记于原始预估值旁。预估值在事后绝不修改。 如何解读这些统计数据 · 记录开始于 Aug 31, 2026
已解决的比较项93
收盘价处于区间内85%
|实际值| 低于预期值85%
平均预期波动幅度±4.2%
平均|实际|波动幅度2.1%
平均绝对误差2.4pt
隐含与已实现波动率，按到期日
每个到期日：琥珀色轮廓框为最接近到期时记录的预期涨跌幅；实心柱为股票实际涨跌幅。柱形下方标注带符号的具体数值。
预期（已记录）实际
已记录（等待结果）
| 快照 | 到期时间 | DTE | 当时现货价 | 预期涨跌幅 | 区间 | 方法 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 16 | Oct 16 | 0 | 178.79 | ±0.7% | 177.58–180.00 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 14 | Oct 16 | 2 | 176.85 | ±1.9% | 173.46–180.25 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 13 | Oct 16 | 3 | 174.01 | ±2.1% | 170.28–177.74 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 09 | Oct 16 | 7 | 168.88 | ±2.8% | 164.10–173.66 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 08 | Oct 16 | 8 | 168.34 | ±3.2% | 162.96–173.72 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 07 | Oct 16 | 9 | 164.12 | ±3.4% | 158.55–169.69 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 06 | Oct 16 | 10 | 164.57 | ±3.5% | 158.82–170.32 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 05 | Oct 16 | 11 | 164.00 | ±4.0% | 157.47–170.53 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 02 | Oct 16 | 14 | 164.34 | ±4.2% | 157.49–171.19 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 01 | Oct 16 | 15 | 163.99 | ±4.4% | 156.72–171.26 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 23 | Oct 16 | 23 | 158.92 | ±5.9% | 149.47–168.37 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 22 | Oct 16 | 24 | 158.71 | ±6.0% | 149.21–168.21 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 21 | Oct 16 | 25 | 158.60 | ±6.0% | 149.02–168.17 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 18 | Oct 16 | 28 | 163.19 | ±6.3% | 152.84–173.54 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 17 | Oct 16 | 29 | 163.71 | ±6.5% | 153.11–174.31 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 16 | Oct 16 | 30 | 163.75 | ±6.8% | 152.55–174.95 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 15 | Oct 16 | 31 | 169.20 | ±7.2% | 157.00–181.40 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 14 | Oct 16 | 32 | 165.10 | ±7.2% | 153.18–177.03 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 11 | Oct 16 | 35 | 165.96 | ±7.3% | 153.91–178.01 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 10 | Oct 16 | 36 | 165.14 | ±7.3% | 153.04–177.24 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 09 | Oct 16 | 37 | 164.04 | ±7.4% | 151.97–176.12 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 08 | Oct 16 | 38 | 160.84 | ±7.5% | 148.81–172.87 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 07 | Oct 16 | 39 | 159.77 | ±7.4% | 148.02–171.52 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 04 | Oct 16 | 42 | 159.18 | ±7.4% | 147.43–170.93 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 03 | Oct 16 | 43 | 162.39 | ±7.7% | 149.94–174.84 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 02 | Oct 16 | 44 | 164.62 | ±7.7% | 151.90–177.34 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 01 | Oct 16 | 45 | 164.50 | ±8.1% | 151.25–177.75 | em-1.0 |
| Aug 31 | Oct 16 | 46 | 160.96 | ±8.0% | 148.03–173.88 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 16 | Oct 23 | 7 | 178.79 | ±3.1% | 173.19–184.39 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 14 | Oct 23 | 9 | 176.85 | ±3.5% | 170.65–183.06 | em-1.0 |
已归档快照
| 快照 | 已到期 | 预期值 | 实际值 | 在区间内？ | 现货价 → 收盘价 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 09, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±0.7% | +0.0% | 区间内 | 168.88 → 168.94 |
| Oct 08, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±1.4% | +0.4% | 区间内 | 168.34 → 168.94 |
| Oct 07, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±1.7% | +2.9% | 区间外 | 164.12 → 168.94 |
| Oct 06, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±2.2% | +2.7% | 区间外 | 164.57 → 168.94 |
| Oct 05, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±2.6% | +3.0% | 区间外 | 164.00 → 168.94 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±2.9% | +2.8% | 区间内 | 164.34 → 168.94 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±3.2% | +3.0% | 区间内 | 163.99 → 168.94 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±5.1% | +6.3% | 区间外 | 158.92 → 168.94 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±5.1% | +6.4% | 区间外 | 158.71 → 168.94 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±5.2% | +6.5% | 区间外 | 158.60 → 168.94 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±5.5% | +3.5% | 区间内 | 163.19 → 168.94 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±5.7% | +3.2% | 区间内 | 163.71 → 168.94 |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±6.1% | +3.2% | 区间内 | 163.75 → 168.94 |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±6.4% | -0.2% | 区间内 | 169.20 → 168.94 |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±6.3% | +2.3% | 区间内 | 165.10 → 168.94 |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±6.5% | +1.8% | 区间内 | 165.96 → 168.94 |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±6.7% | +2.3% | 区间内 | 165.14 → 168.94 |
| Sep 09, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±6.7% | +3.0% | 区间内 | 164.04 → 168.94 |
| Sep 08, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±6.8% | +5.0% | 区间内 | 160.84 → 168.94 |
| Sep 07, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±6.5% | +5.7% | 区间内 | 159.77 → 168.94 |
| Sep 04, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±6.6% | +6.1% | 区间内 | 159.18 → 168.94 |
| Sep 03, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±6.8% | +4.0% | 区间内 | 162.39 → 168.94 |
| Sep 02, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±7.1% | +2.6% | 区间内 | 164.62 → 168.94 |
| Sep 01, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±7.4% | +2.7% | 区间内 | 164.50 → 168.94 |
| Aug 31, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±7.3% | +5.0% | 区间内 | 160.96 → 168.94 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±0.6% | -0.2% | 区间内 | 164.34 → 164.01 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±1.4% | +0.0% | 区间内 | 163.99 → 164.01 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±4.0% | +3.2% | 区间内 | 158.92 → 164.01 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±4.1% | +3.3% | 区间内 | 158.71 → 164.01 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±4.3% | +3.4% | 区间内 | 158.60 → 164.01 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±4.4% | +0.5% | 区间内 | 163.19 → 164.01 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±4.7% | +0.2% | 区间内 | 163.71 → 164.01 |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±5.1% | +0.2% | 区间内 | 163.75 → 164.01 |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±5.3% | -3.1% | 区间内 | 169.20 → 164.01 |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±5.4% | -0.7% | 区间内 | 165.10 → 164.01 |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±5.6% | -1.2% | 区间内 | 165.96 → 164.01 |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±5.8% | -0.7% | 区间内 | 165.14 → 164.01 |
| Sep 09, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±5.9% | -0.0% | 区间内 | 164.04 → 164.01 |
| Sep 08, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±5.9% | +2.0% | 区间内 | 160.84 → 164.01 |
| Sep 07, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±5.9% | +2.7% | 区间内 | 159.77 → 164.01 |
| Sep 04, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±6.0% | +3.0% | 区间内 | 159.18 → 164.01 |
| Sep 03, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±6.1% | +1.0% | 区间内 | 162.39 → 164.01 |
| Sep 02, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±6.4% | -0.4% | 区间内 | 164.62 → 164.01 |
| Sep 01, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±6.8% | -0.3% | 区间内 | 164.50 → 164.01 |
| Aug 31, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±6.7% | +1.9% | 区间内 | 160.96 → 164.01 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±2.5% | +1.1% | 区间内 | 158.92 → 160.59 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±2.6% | +1.2% | 区间内 | 158.71 → 160.59 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±2.8% | +1.3% | 区间内 | 158.60 → 160.59 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±3.2% | -1.6% | 区间内 | 163.19 → 160.59 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±3.3% | -1.9% | 区间内 | 163.71 → 160.59 |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±3.8% | -1.9% | 区间内 | 163.75 → 160.59 |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±4.3% | -5.1% | 区间外 | 169.20 → 160.59 |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±4.3% | -2.7% | 区间内 | 165.10 → 160.59 |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±4.5% | -3.2% | 区间内 | 165.96 → 160.59 |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±4.7% | -2.8% | 区间内 | 165.14 → 160.59 |
| Sep 09, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±5.0% | -2.1% | 区间内 | 164.04 → 160.59 |
| Sep 08, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±5.0% | -0.2% | 区间内 | 160.84 → 160.59 |
| Sep 07, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±5.1% | +0.5% | 区间内 | 159.77 → 160.59 |
| Sep 04, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±5.1% | +0.9% | 区间内 | 159.18 → 160.59 |
| Sep 03, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±5.2% | -1.1% | 区间内 | 162.39 → 160.59 |
结果通过比较记录的价格区间与到期日收盘价得出。各行显示所用方法版本（与当前版本不同时）；当前版本： em-1.0.