XOM histórico de movimento esperado Exxonmobil Holdings Corporation
A cada dia útil, após o fechamento, registramos o que o mercado de opções estava precificando — por expiração, antes de o resultado ser conhecido. Quando uma expiração passa, o resultado é registrado ao lado da estimativa original. As estimativas nunca são revisadas após o fato. Como interpretar estas estatísticas · registrando desde Aug 31, 2026
Comparações resolvidas121
Fechar dentro do intervalo68%
|Real| abaixo do esperado68%
Movimento esperado médio±4.5%
Movimento |real| médio3.6%
Erro médio absoluto2.6pt
Implícita vs. realizada, por vencimento
Para cada expiração: o contorno âmbar é o movimento esperado registrado mais próximo do vencimento; a barra sólida é o que a ação realmente fez. Os valores com sinal aparecem abaixo das barras.
esperado (registrado)real
Atualmente registado (a aguardar resultado)
| Snapshot | Expira | DTE | Spot na época | Movimento esperado | Intervalo | Método |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 19 | Oct 23 | 4 | 178.00 | ±2.6% | 173.44–182.56 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 16 | Oct 23 | 7 | 178.79 | ±3.1% | 173.19–184.39 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 14 | Oct 23 | 9 | 176.85 | ±3.5% | 170.65–183.06 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 13 | Oct 23 | 10 | 174.01 | ±3.5% | 167.96–180.06 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 09 | Oct 23 | 14 | 168.88 | ±4.1% | 162.01–175.75 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 08 | Oct 23 | 15 | 168.34 | ±4.5% | 160.76–175.92 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 07 | Oct 23 | 16 | 164.12 | ±4.5% | 156.77–171.47 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 06 | Oct 23 | 17 | 164.57 | ±4.6% | 156.92–172.22 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 05 | Oct 23 | 18 | 164.00 | ±4.9% | 155.95–172.05 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 02 | Oct 23 | 21 | 164.34 | ±5.2% | 155.74–172.94 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 01 | Oct 23 | 22 | 163.99 | ±5.4% | 155.16–172.81 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 23 | Oct 23 | 30 | 158.92 | ±7.0% | 147.82–170.02 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 22 | Oct 23 | 31 | 158.71 | ±6.8% | 147.88–169.53 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 21 | Oct 23 | 32 | 158.60 | ±6.9% | 147.62–169.57 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 18 | Oct 23 | 35 | 163.19 | ±7.1% | 151.64–174.74 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 17 | Oct 23 | 36 | 163.71 | ±7.1% | 152.16–175.26 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 16 | Oct 23 | 37 | 163.75 | ±7.6% | 151.22–176.28 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 15 | Oct 23 | 38 | 169.20 | ±7.9% | 155.82–182.57 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 14 | Oct 23 | 39 | 165.10 | ±7.8% | 152.22–177.97 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 11 | Oct 23 | 42 | 165.96 | ±7.9% | 152.88–179.03 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 10 | Oct 23 | 43 | 165.14 | ±8.4% | 151.29–178.99 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 09 | Oct 23 | 44 | 164.04 | ±8.2% | 150.59–177.49 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 08 | Oct 23 | 45 | 160.84 | ±8.0% | 147.91–173.76 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 07 | Oct 23 | 46 | 159.77 | ±8.3% | 146.47–173.07 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 04 | Oct 23 | 49 | 159.18 | ±8.4% | 145.88–172.48 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 03 | Oct 23 | 50 | 162.39 | ±8.5% | 148.59–176.19 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 19 | Oct 30 | 11 | 178.00 | ±4.5% | 169.97–186.03 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 16 | Oct 30 | 14 | 178.79 | ±4.8% | 170.24–187.34 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 14 | Oct 30 | 16 | 176.85 | ±5.3% | 167.40–186.30 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 13 | Oct 30 | 17 | 174.01 | ±5.0% | 165.31–182.71 | em-1.0 |
Snapshots encerrados
| Snapshot | Expirado | Esperado | Real | Dentro do intervalo? | Spot → fechamento |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 16, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±0.7% | +0.1% | dentro | 178.79 → 178.98 |
| Oct 14, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±1.9% | +1.2% | dentro | 176.85 → 178.98 |
| Oct 13, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±2.1% | +2.9% | fora | 174.01 → 178.98 |
| Oct 09, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±2.8% | +6.0% | fora | 168.88 → 178.98 |
| Oct 08, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±3.2% | +6.3% | fora | 168.34 → 178.98 |
| Oct 07, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±3.4% | +9.1% | fora | 164.12 → 178.98 |
| Oct 06, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±3.5% | +8.8% | fora | 164.57 → 178.98 |
| Oct 05, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±4.0% | +9.1% | fora | 164.00 → 178.98 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±4.2% | +8.9% | fora | 164.34 → 178.98 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±4.4% | +9.1% | fora | 163.99 → 178.98 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±5.9% | +12.6% | fora | 158.92 → 178.98 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±6.0% | +12.8% | fora | 158.71 → 178.98 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±6.0% | +12.8% | fora | 158.60 → 178.98 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±6.3% | +9.7% | fora | 163.19 → 178.98 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±6.5% | +9.3% | fora | 163.71 → 178.98 |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±6.8% | +9.3% | fora | 163.75 → 178.98 |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±7.2% | +5.8% | dentro | 169.20 → 178.98 |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±7.2% | +8.4% | fora | 165.10 → 178.98 |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±7.3% | +7.8% | fora | 165.96 → 178.98 |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±7.3% | +8.4% | fora | 165.14 → 178.98 |
| Sep 09, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±7.4% | +9.1% | fora | 164.04 → 178.98 |
| Sep 08, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±7.5% | +11.3% | fora | 160.84 → 178.98 |
| Sep 07, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±7.4% | +12.0% | fora | 159.77 → 178.98 |
| Sep 04, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±7.4% | +12.4% | fora | 159.18 → 178.98 |
| Sep 03, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±7.7% | +10.2% | fora | 162.39 → 178.98 |
| Sep 02, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±7.7% | +8.7% | fora | 164.62 → 178.98 |
| Sep 01, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±8.1% | +8.8% | fora | 164.50 → 178.98 |
| Aug 31, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±8.0% | +11.2% | fora | 160.96 → 178.98 |
| Oct 09, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±0.7% | +0.0% | dentro | 168.88 → 168.94 |
| Oct 08, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±1.4% | +0.4% | dentro | 168.34 → 168.94 |
| Oct 07, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±1.7% | +2.9% | fora | 164.12 → 168.94 |
| Oct 06, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±2.2% | +2.7% | fora | 164.57 → 168.94 |
| Oct 05, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±2.6% | +3.0% | fora | 164.00 → 168.94 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±2.9% | +2.8% | dentro | 164.34 → 168.94 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±3.2% | +3.0% | dentro | 163.99 → 168.94 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±5.1% | +6.3% | fora | 158.92 → 168.94 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±5.1% | +6.4% | fora | 158.71 → 168.94 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±5.2% | +6.5% | fora | 158.60 → 168.94 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±5.5% | +3.5% | dentro | 163.19 → 168.94 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±5.7% | +3.2% | dentro | 163.71 → 168.94 |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±6.1% | +3.2% | dentro | 163.75 → 168.94 |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±6.4% | -0.2% | dentro | 169.20 → 168.94 |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±6.3% | +2.3% | dentro | 165.10 → 168.94 |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±6.5% | +1.8% | dentro | 165.96 → 168.94 |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±6.7% | +2.3% | dentro | 165.14 → 168.94 |
| Sep 09, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±6.7% | +3.0% | dentro | 164.04 → 168.94 |
| Sep 08, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±6.8% | +5.0% | dentro | 160.84 → 168.94 |
| Sep 07, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±6.5% | +5.7% | dentro | 159.77 → 168.94 |
| Sep 04, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±6.6% | +6.1% | dentro | 159.18 → 168.94 |
| Sep 03, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±6.8% | +4.0% | dentro | 162.39 → 168.94 |
| Sep 02, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±7.1% | +2.6% | dentro | 164.62 → 168.94 |
| Sep 01, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±7.4% | +2.7% | dentro | 164.50 → 168.94 |
| Aug 31, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±7.3% | +5.0% | dentro | 160.96 → 168.94 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±0.6% | -0.2% | dentro | 164.34 → 164.01 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±1.4% | +0.0% | dentro | 163.99 → 164.01 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±4.0% | +3.2% | dentro | 158.92 → 164.01 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±4.1% | +3.3% | dentro | 158.71 → 164.01 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±4.3% | +3.4% | dentro | 158.60 → 164.01 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±4.4% | +0.5% | dentro | 163.19 → 164.01 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±4.7% | +0.2% | dentro | 163.71 → 164.01 |
Os resultados comparam o intervalo registado com o preço de fecho no dia de expiração. A versão do método é indicada por linha quando difere; atual: em-1.0.