XLK 预期波动历史 State Street Technology Select Sector SPDR ETF
每个交易日收盘后，我们记录期权市场对各到期日的定价——均在结果揭晓前留存。到期日过后，实际结果会附记于原始预估值旁。预估值在事后绝不修改。 如何解读这些统计数据 · 记录开始于 Aug 31, 2026
已解决的比较项93
收盘价处于区间内44%
|实际值| 低于预期值44%
平均预期波动幅度±3.5%
平均|实际|波动幅度3.8%
平均绝对误差1.5pt
隐含与已实现波动率，按到期日
每个到期日：琥珀色轮廓框为最接近到期时记录的预期涨跌幅；实心柱为股票实际涨跌幅。柱形下方标注带符号的具体数值。
预期（已记录）实际
已记录（等待结果）
| 快照 | 到期时间 | DTE | 当时现货价 | 预期涨跌幅 | 区间 | 方法 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 16 | Oct 16 | 0 | 183.47 | ±0.5% | 182.55–184.39 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 14 | Oct 16 | 2 | 190.44 | ±2.0% | 186.71–194.17 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 13 | Oct 16 | 3 | 196.36 | ±2.1% | 192.29–200.43 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 09 | Oct 16 | 7 | 198.78 | ±2.2% | 194.48–203.08 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 08 | Oct 16 | 8 | 197.99 | ±2.8% | 192.41–203.56 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 07 | Oct 16 | 9 | 201.39 | ±2.8% | 195.81–206.97 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 06 | Oct 16 | 10 | 202.09 | ±2.9% | 196.13–208.03 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 05 | Oct 16 | 11 | 201.26 | ±3.2% | 194.78–207.75 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 02 | Oct 16 | 14 | 199.80 | ±3.8% | 192.24–207.37 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 01 | Oct 16 | 15 | 198.02 | ±4.0% | 190.07–205.97 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 23 | Oct 16 | 23 | 196.27 | ±5.1% | 186.32–206.22 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 22 | Oct 16 | 24 | 196.21 | ±5.1% | 186.26–206.16 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 21 | Oct 16 | 25 | 194.93 | ±4.8% | 185.55–204.30 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 18 | Oct 16 | 28 | 188.78 | ±4.7% | 179.99–197.59 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 17 | Oct 16 | 29 | 188.21 | ±4.7% | 179.31–197.11 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 16 | Oct 16 | 30 | 183.81 | ±5.8% | 173.13–194.49 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 15 | Oct 16 | 31 | 184.05 | ±5.8% | 173.38–194.72 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 14 | Oct 16 | 32 | 184.87 | ±5.9% | 173.94–195.79 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 11 | Oct 16 | 35 | 187.83 | ±5.8% | 176.96–198.71 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 10 | Oct 16 | 36 | 185.49 | ±6.7% | 173.13–197.84 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 09 | Oct 16 | 37 | 187.75 | ±6.4% | 175.68–199.83 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 08 | Oct 16 | 38 | 187.66 | ±6.4% | 175.62–199.72 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 07 | Oct 16 | 39 | 187.28 | ±6.6% | 174.98–199.58 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 04 | Oct 16 | 42 | 187.03 | ±6.4% | 175.00–199.06 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 03 | Oct 16 | 43 | 185.88 | ±6.7% | 173.43–198.33 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 02 | Oct 16 | 44 | 183.58 | ±6.8% | 171.03–196.13 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 01 | Oct 16 | 45 | 183.66 | ±7.2% | 170.38–196.94 | em-1.0 |
| Aug 31 | Oct 16 | 46 | 186.28 | ±7.4% | 172.46–200.10 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 16 | Oct 23 | 7 | 183.47 | ±3.2% | 177.51–189.43 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 14 | Oct 23 | 9 | 190.44 | ±3.4% | 183.97–196.91 | em-1.0 |
已归档快照
| 快照 | 已到期 | 预期值 | 实际值 | 在区间内？ | 现货价 → 收盘价 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 09, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±0.2% | +0.0% | 区间内 | 198.78 → 198.78 |
| Oct 08, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±1.2% | +0.4% | 区间内 | 197.99 → 198.78 |
| Oct 07, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±1.2% | -1.3% | 区间外 | 201.39 → 198.78 |
| Oct 06, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±1.5% | -1.6% | 区间外 | 202.09 → 198.78 |
| Oct 05, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±1.9% | -1.2% | 区间内 | 201.26 → 198.78 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±2.3% | -0.5% | 区间内 | 199.80 → 198.78 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±2.9% | +0.4% | 区间内 | 198.02 → 198.78 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±4.0% | +1.3% | 区间内 | 196.27 → 198.78 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±4.0% | +1.3% | 区间内 | 196.21 → 198.78 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±4.0% | +2.0% | 区间内 | 194.93 → 198.78 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±4.1% | +5.3% | 区间外 | 188.78 → 198.78 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±4.6% | +5.6% | 区间外 | 188.21 → 198.78 |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±5.0% | +8.1% | 区间外 | 183.81 → 198.78 |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±5.1% | +8.0% | 区间外 | 184.05 → 198.78 |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±5.2% | +7.5% | 区间外 | 184.87 → 198.78 |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±5.4% | +5.8% | 区间外 | 187.83 → 198.78 |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±6.1% | +7.2% | 区间外 | 185.49 → 198.78 |
| Sep 09, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±5.8% | +5.9% | 区间外 | 187.75 → 198.78 |
| Sep 08, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±5.8% | +5.9% | 区间外 | 187.66 → 198.78 |
| Sep 07, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±5.8% | +6.1% | 区间外 | 187.28 → 198.78 |
| Sep 04, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±5.9% | +6.3% | 区间外 | 187.03 → 198.78 |
| Sep 03, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±6.1% | +6.9% | 区间外 | 185.88 → 198.78 |
| Sep 02, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±6.3% | +8.3% | 区间外 | 183.58 → 198.78 |
| Sep 01, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±6.4% | +8.2% | 区间外 | 183.66 → 198.78 |
| Aug 31, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±6.1% | +6.7% | 区间外 | 186.28 → 198.78 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±0.2% | +0.0% | 区间内 | 199.80 → 199.81 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±1.3% | +0.9% | 区间内 | 198.02 → 199.81 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±3.1% | +1.8% | 区间内 | 196.27 → 199.81 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±3.1% | +1.8% | 区间内 | 196.21 → 199.81 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±3.1% | +2.5% | 区间内 | 194.93 → 199.81 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±3.2% | +5.8% | 区间外 | 188.78 → 199.81 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±3.4% | +6.2% | 区间外 | 188.21 → 199.81 |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±4.2% | +8.7% | 区间外 | 183.81 → 199.81 |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±4.4% | +8.6% | 区间外 | 184.05 → 199.81 |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±4.5% | +8.1% | 区间外 | 184.87 → 199.81 |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±4.7% | +6.4% | 区间外 | 187.83 → 199.81 |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±5.3% | +7.7% | 区间外 | 185.49 → 199.81 |
| Sep 09, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±5.1% | +6.4% | 区间外 | 187.75 → 199.81 |
| Sep 08, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±5.1% | +6.5% | 区间外 | 187.66 → 199.81 |
| Sep 07, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±5.0% | +6.7% | 区间外 | 187.28 → 199.81 |
| Sep 04, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±5.1% | +6.8% | 区间外 | 187.03 → 199.81 |
| Sep 03, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±5.4% | +7.5% | 区间外 | 185.88 → 199.81 |
| Sep 02, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±5.5% | +8.8% | 区间外 | 183.58 → 199.81 |
| Sep 01, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±5.8% | +8.8% | 区间外 | 183.66 → 199.81 |
| Aug 31, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±5.5% | +7.3% | 区间外 | 186.28 → 199.81 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±1.6% | +0.0% | 区间内 | 196.27 → 196.27 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±1.6% | +0.0% | 区间内 | 196.21 → 196.27 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±1.9% | +0.7% | 区间内 | 194.93 → 196.27 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±2.2% | +4.0% | 区间外 | 188.78 → 196.27 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±2.4% | +4.3% | 区间外 | 188.21 → 196.27 |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±3.2% | +6.8% | 区间外 | 183.81 → 196.27 |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±3.7% | +6.6% | 区间外 | 184.05 → 196.27 |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±3.5% | +6.2% | 区间外 | 184.87 → 196.27 |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±3.6% | +4.5% | 区间外 | 187.83 → 196.27 |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±4.4% | +5.8% | 区间外 | 185.49 → 196.27 |
| Sep 09, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±4.3% | +4.5% | 区间外 | 187.75 → 196.27 |
| Sep 08, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±4.3% | +4.6% | 区间外 | 187.66 → 196.27 |
| Sep 07, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±4.0% | +4.8% | 区间外 | 187.28 → 196.27 |
| Sep 04, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±4.4% | +4.9% | 区间外 | 187.03 → 196.27 |
| Sep 03, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±4.6% | +5.6% | 区间外 | 185.88 → 196.27 |
结果通过比较记录的价格区间与到期日收盘价得出。各行显示所用方法版本（与当前版本不同时）；当前版本： em-1.0.