XLK historial de movimiento esperado State Street Technology Select Sector SPDR ETF
Cada día de negociación, tras el cierre, registramos lo que el mercado de opciones estaba descontando — por vencimiento, antes de conocerse el resultado. Cuando un vencimiento finaliza, el resultado se anota junto a la estimación original. Las estimaciones nunca se revisan a posteriori. Cómo interpretar estas estadísticas · registrando desde Aug 31, 2026
Comparaciones resueltas121
Cierre dentro del rango47%
|Real| por debajo de lo esperado47%
Movimiento esperado promedio±3.8%
Movimiento |real| promedio3.8%
Error medio abs.2.1pt
Implícita vs realizada, por vencimiento
Para cada vencimiento: el contorno ámbar es el movimiento esperado registrado más cerca del vencimiento; la barra sólida es lo que la acción hizo realmente. Los valores con signo aparecen bajo las barras.
esperado (registrado)real
Registrado actualmente (pendiente de resultado)
| Instantánea | Vence | DTE | Precio entonces | Movimiento esperado | Rango | Método |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 19 | Oct 23 | 4 | 185.71 | ±2.7% | 180.78–190.65 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 16 | Oct 23 | 7 | 183.47 | ±3.2% | 177.51–189.43 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 14 | Oct 23 | 9 | 190.44 | ±3.4% | 183.97–196.91 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 13 | Oct 23 | 10 | 196.36 | ±3.3% | 189.92–202.80 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 09 | Oct 23 | 14 | 198.78 | ±3.3% | 192.28–205.28 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 08 | Oct 23 | 15 | 197.99 | ±3.7% | 190.60–205.38 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 07 | Oct 23 | 16 | 201.39 | ±3.6% | 194.06–208.72 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 06 | Oct 23 | 17 | 202.09 | ±3.7% | 194.63–209.53 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 05 | Oct 23 | 18 | 201.26 | ±4.0% | 193.24–209.28 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 02 | Oct 23 | 21 | 199.80 | ±4.9% | 189.95–209.65 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 01 | Oct 23 | 22 | 198.02 | ±4.9% | 188.25–207.79 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 23 | Oct 23 | 30 | 196.27 | ±5.6% | 185.25–207.29 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 22 | Oct 23 | 31 | 196.21 | ±5.6% | 185.18–207.23 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 21 | Oct 23 | 32 | 194.93 | ±5.4% | 184.32–205.53 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 18 | Oct 23 | 35 | 188.78 | ±5.5% | 178.38–199.19 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 17 | Oct 23 | 36 | 188.21 | ±5.5% | 177.78–198.63 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 16 | Oct 23 | 37 | 183.81 | ±5.9% | 172.91–194.71 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 15 | Oct 23 | 38 | 184.05 | ±6.3% | 172.40–195.70 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 14 | Oct 23 | 39 | 184.87 | ±6.6% | 172.75–197.00 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 11 | Oct 23 | 42 | 187.83 | ±6.9% | 174.91–200.75 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 10 | Oct 23 | 43 | 185.49 | ±7.3% | 171.86–199.11 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 09 | Oct 23 | 44 | 187.75 | ±7.0% | 174.58–200.93 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 08 | Oct 23 | 45 | 187.66 | ±7.1% | 174.37–200.97 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 07 | Oct 23 | 46 | 187.28 | ±7.0% | 174.16–200.41 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 04 | Oct 23 | 49 | 187.03 | ±7.1% | 173.83–200.23 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 03 | Oct 23 | 50 | 185.88 | ±7.6% | 171.81–199.96 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 19 | Oct 30 | 11 | 185.71 | ±3.9% | 178.46–192.97 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 16 | Oct 30 | 14 | 183.47 | ±4.8% | 174.59–192.34 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 14 | Oct 30 | 16 | 190.44 | ±4.7% | 181.54–199.34 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 13 | Oct 30 | 17 | 196.36 | ±4.1% | 188.33–204.38 | em-1.0 |
Instantáneas resueltas
| Instantánea | Vencido | Esperado | Real | ¿Dentro del rango? | Precio → cierre |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 16, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±0.5% | +0.0% | dentro | 183.47 → 183.47 |
| Oct 14, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±2.0% | -3.7% | fuera | 190.44 → 183.47 |
| Oct 13, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±2.1% | -6.6% | fuera | 196.36 → 183.47 |
| Oct 09, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±2.2% | -7.7% | fuera | 198.78 → 183.47 |
| Oct 08, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±2.8% | -7.3% | fuera | 197.99 → 183.47 |
| Oct 07, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±2.8% | -8.9% | fuera | 201.39 → 183.47 |
| Oct 06, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±2.9% | -9.2% | fuera | 202.09 → 183.47 |
| Oct 05, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±3.2% | -8.8% | fuera | 201.26 → 183.47 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±3.8% | -8.2% | fuera | 199.80 → 183.47 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±4.0% | -7.3% | fuera | 198.02 → 183.47 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±5.1% | -6.5% | fuera | 196.27 → 183.47 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±5.1% | -6.5% | fuera | 196.21 → 183.47 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±4.8% | -5.9% | fuera | 194.93 → 183.47 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±4.7% | -2.8% | dentro | 188.78 → 183.47 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±4.7% | -2.5% | dentro | 188.21 → 183.47 |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±5.8% | -0.2% | dentro | 183.81 → 183.47 |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±5.8% | -0.3% | dentro | 184.05 → 183.47 |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±5.9% | -0.8% | dentro | 184.87 → 183.47 |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±5.8% | -2.3% | dentro | 187.83 → 183.47 |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±6.7% | -1.1% | dentro | 185.49 → 183.47 |
| Sep 09, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±6.4% | -2.3% | dentro | 187.75 → 183.47 |
| Sep 08, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±6.4% | -2.2% | dentro | 187.66 → 183.47 |
| Sep 07, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±6.6% | -2.0% | dentro | 187.28 → 183.47 |
| Sep 04, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±6.4% | -1.9% | dentro | 187.03 → 183.47 |
| Sep 03, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±6.7% | -1.3% | dentro | 185.88 → 183.47 |
| Sep 02, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±6.8% | -0.1% | dentro | 183.58 → 183.47 |
| Sep 01, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±7.2% | -0.1% | dentro | 183.66 → 183.47 |
| Aug 31, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±7.4% | -1.5% | dentro | 186.28 → 183.47 |
| Oct 09, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±0.2% | +0.0% | dentro | 198.78 → 198.78 |
| Oct 08, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±1.2% | +0.4% | dentro | 197.99 → 198.78 |
| Oct 07, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±1.2% | -1.3% | fuera | 201.39 → 198.78 |
| Oct 06, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±1.5% | -1.6% | fuera | 202.09 → 198.78 |
| Oct 05, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±1.9% | -1.2% | dentro | 201.26 → 198.78 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±2.3% | -0.5% | dentro | 199.80 → 198.78 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±2.9% | +0.4% | dentro | 198.02 → 198.78 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±4.0% | +1.3% | dentro | 196.27 → 198.78 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±4.0% | +1.3% | dentro | 196.21 → 198.78 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±4.0% | +2.0% | dentro | 194.93 → 198.78 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±4.1% | +5.3% | fuera | 188.78 → 198.78 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±4.6% | +5.6% | fuera | 188.21 → 198.78 |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±5.0% | +8.1% | fuera | 183.81 → 198.78 |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±5.1% | +8.0% | fuera | 184.05 → 198.78 |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±5.2% | +7.5% | fuera | 184.87 → 198.78 |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±5.4% | +5.8% | fuera | 187.83 → 198.78 |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±6.1% | +7.2% | fuera | 185.49 → 198.78 |
| Sep 09, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±5.8% | +5.9% | fuera | 187.75 → 198.78 |
| Sep 08, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±5.8% | +5.9% | fuera | 187.66 → 198.78 |
| Sep 07, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±5.8% | +6.1% | fuera | 187.28 → 198.78 |
| Sep 04, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±5.9% | +6.3% | fuera | 187.03 → 198.78 |
| Sep 03, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±6.1% | +6.9% | fuera | 185.88 → 198.78 |
| Sep 02, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±6.3% | +8.3% | fuera | 183.58 → 198.78 |
| Sep 01, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±6.4% | +8.2% | fuera | 183.66 → 198.78 |
| Aug 31, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±6.1% | +6.7% | fuera | 186.28 → 198.78 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±0.2% | +0.0% | dentro | 199.80 → 199.81 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±1.3% | +0.9% | dentro | 198.02 → 199.81 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±3.1% | +1.8% | dentro | 196.27 → 199.81 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±3.1% | +1.8% | dentro | 196.21 → 199.81 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±3.1% | +2.5% | dentro | 194.93 → 199.81 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±3.2% | +5.8% | fuera | 188.78 → 199.81 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±3.4% | +6.2% | fuera | 188.21 → 199.81 |
Los resultados comparan el rango registrado con el precio de cierre en el día de expiración. La versión del método se muestra por fila cuando difiere; actual: em-1.0.