XLI histórico de movimento esperado State Street Industrial Select Sector SPDR ETF
A cada dia útil, após o fechamento, registramos o que o mercado de opções estava precificando — por expiração, antes de o resultado ser conhecido. Quando uma expiração passa, o resultado é registrado ao lado da estimativa original. As estimativas nunca são revisadas após o fato. Como interpretar estas estatísticas · registrando desde Aug 31, 2026
Comparações resolvidas93
Fechar dentro do intervalo91%
|Real| abaixo do esperado91%
Movimento esperado médio±2.7%
Movimento |real| médio1.2%
Erro médio absoluto1.5pt
Implícita vs. realizada, por vencimento
Para cada expiração: o contorno âmbar é o movimento esperado registrado mais próximo do vencimento; a barra sólida é o que a ação realmente fez. Os valores com sinal aparecem abaixo das barras.
esperado (registrado)real
Atualmente registado (a aguardar resultado)
| Snapshot | Expira | DTE | Spot na época | Movimento esperado | Intervalo | Método |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 16 | Oct 16 | 0 | 167.74 | ±1.5% | 165.21–170.28 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 14 | Oct 16 | 2 | 167.42 | ±1.4% | 165.01–169.83 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 13 | Oct 16 | 3 | 169.02 | ±1.9% | 165.88–172.16 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 09 | Oct 16 | 7 | 169.49 | ±2.2% | 165.81–173.17 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 08 | Oct 16 | 8 | 168.40 | ±2.0% | 164.99–171.81 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 07 | Oct 16 | 9 | 168.02 | ±2.1% | 164.44–171.60 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 06 | Oct 16 | 10 | 171.58 | ±2.2% | 167.84–175.32 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 05 | Oct 16 | 11 | 170.10 | ±2.7% | 165.58–174.62 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 02 | Oct 16 | 14 | 169.95 | ±3.4% | 164.21–175.69 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 01 | Oct 16 | 15 | 169.00 | ±3.4% | 163.26–174.74 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 23 | Oct 16 | 23 | 170.27 | ±3.6% | 164.13–176.41 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 22 | Oct 16 | 24 | 170.28 | ±3.6% | 164.13–176.41 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 21 | Oct 16 | 25 | 170.06 | ±3.7% | 163.79–176.32 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 18 | Oct 16 | 28 | 170.00 | ±4.1% | 163.08–176.92 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 17 | Oct 16 | 29 | 169.16 | ±4.2% | 162.06–176.26 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 16 | Oct 16 | 30 | 168.37 | ±4.5% | 160.82–175.92 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 15 | Oct 16 | 31 | 169.01 | ±4.5% | 161.44–176.59 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 14 | Oct 16 | 32 | 169.94 | ±4.5% | 162.37–177.51 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 11 | Oct 16 | 35 | 172.47 | ±4.4% | 164.92–180.02 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 10 | Oct 16 | 36 | 170.39 | ±4.8% | 162.24–178.54 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 09 | Oct 16 | 37 | 172.03 | ±4.8% | 163.85–180.21 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 08 | Oct 16 | 38 | 174.82 | ±4.9% | 166.30–183.35 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 07 | Oct 16 | 39 | 175.27 | ±4.6% | 167.26–183.28 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 04 | Oct 16 | 42 | 175.16 | ±4.8% | 166.68–183.63 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 03 | Oct 16 | 43 | 174.43 | ±4.9% | 165.88–182.97 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 02 | Oct 16 | 44 | 172.84 | ±5.0% | 164.16–181.53 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 01 | Oct 16 | 45 | 172.62 | ±4.8% | 164.35–180.90 | em-1.0 |
| Aug 31 | Oct 16 | 46 | 175.16 | ±4.9% | 166.60–183.71 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 16 | Oct 23 | 7 | 167.74 | ±2.8% | 163.10–172.38 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 14 | Oct 23 | 9 | 167.42 | ±2.6% | 163.02–171.82 | em-1.0 |
Snapshots encerrados
| Snapshot | Expirado | Esperado | Real | Dentro do intervalo? | Spot → fechamento |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 09, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±0.4% | -0.1% | dentro | 169.49 → 169.25 |
| Oct 08, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±0.9% | +0.5% | dentro | 168.40 → 169.25 |
| Oct 07, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±1.3% | +0.7% | dentro | 168.02 → 169.25 |
| Oct 06, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±1.3% | -1.4% | fora | 171.58 → 169.25 |
| Oct 05, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±2.0% | -0.5% | dentro | 170.10 → 169.25 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±2.0% | -0.4% | dentro | 169.95 → 169.25 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±2.5% | +0.1% | dentro | 169.00 → 169.25 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±3.2% | -0.6% | dentro | 170.27 → 169.25 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±3.0% | -0.6% | dentro | 170.28 → 169.25 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±3.1% | -0.5% | dentro | 170.06 → 169.25 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±3.9% | -0.4% | dentro | 170.00 → 169.25 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±3.7% | +0.1% | dentro | 169.16 → 169.25 |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±3.9% | +0.5% | dentro | 168.37 → 169.25 |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±3.9% | +0.1% | dentro | 169.01 → 169.25 |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±3.7% | -0.4% | dentro | 169.94 → 169.25 |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±3.8% | -1.9% | dentro | 172.47 → 169.25 |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±4.2% | -0.7% | dentro | 170.39 → 169.25 |
| Sep 09, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±4.2% | -1.6% | dentro | 172.03 → 169.25 |
| Sep 08, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±4.4% | -3.2% | dentro | 174.82 → 169.25 |
| Sep 07, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±4.6% | -3.4% | dentro | 175.27 → 169.25 |
| Sep 04, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±4.4% | -3.4% | dentro | 175.16 → 169.25 |
| Sep 03, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±4.4% | -3.0% | dentro | 174.43 → 169.25 |
| Sep 02, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±5.3% | -2.1% | dentro | 172.84 → 169.25 |
| Sep 01, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±4.4% | -2.0% | dentro | 172.62 → 169.25 |
| Aug 31, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±4.5% | -3.4% | dentro | 175.16 → 169.25 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±0.6% | +0.0% | dentro | 169.95 → 169.95 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±1.1% | +0.6% | dentro | 169.00 → 169.95 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±2.9% | -0.2% | dentro | 170.27 → 169.95 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±2.2% | -0.2% | dentro | 170.28 → 169.95 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±2.3% | -0.1% | dentro | 170.06 → 169.95 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±3.1% | -0.0% | dentro | 170.00 → 169.95 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±3.0% | +0.5% | dentro | 169.16 → 169.95 |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±3.2% | +0.9% | dentro | 168.37 → 169.95 |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±3.2% | +0.6% | dentro | 169.01 → 169.95 |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±3.2% | +0.0% | dentro | 169.94 → 169.95 |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±3.3% | -1.5% | dentro | 172.47 → 169.95 |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±3.6% | -0.3% | dentro | 170.39 → 169.95 |
| Sep 09, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±3.7% | -1.2% | dentro | 172.03 → 169.95 |
| Sep 08, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±3.8% | -2.8% | dentro | 174.82 → 169.95 |
| Sep 07, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±3.9% | -3.0% | dentro | 175.27 → 169.95 |
| Sep 04, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±3.9% | -3.0% | dentro | 175.16 → 169.95 |
| Sep 03, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±4.0% | -2.6% | dentro | 174.43 → 169.95 |
| Sep 02, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±4.1% | -1.7% | dentro | 172.84 → 169.95 |
| Sep 01, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±3.9% | -1.6% | dentro | 172.62 → 169.95 |
| Aug 31, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±4.1% | -3.0% | dentro | 175.16 → 169.95 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±2.9% | +0.1% | dentro | 170.27 → 170.43 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±1.3% | +0.1% | dentro | 170.28 → 170.43 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±1.5% | +0.2% | dentro | 170.06 → 170.43 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±2.4% | +0.3% | dentro | 170.00 → 170.43 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±2.2% | +0.8% | dentro | 169.16 → 170.43 |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±2.5% | +1.2% | dentro | 168.37 → 170.43 |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±2.5% | +0.8% | dentro | 169.01 → 170.43 |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±2.5% | +0.3% | dentro | 169.94 → 170.43 |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±2.7% | -1.2% | dentro | 172.47 → 170.43 |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±3.1% | +0.0% | dentro | 170.39 → 170.43 |
| Sep 09, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±3.1% | -0.9% | dentro | 172.03 → 170.43 |
| Sep 08, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±3.2% | -2.5% | dentro | 174.82 → 170.43 |
| Sep 07, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±3.3% | -2.8% | dentro | 175.27 → 170.43 |
| Sep 04, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±3.3% | -2.7% | dentro | 175.16 → 170.43 |
| Sep 03, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±3.4% | -2.3% | dentro | 174.43 → 170.43 |
Os resultados comparam o intervalo registado com o preço de fecho no dia de expiração. A versão do método é indicada por linha quando difere; atual: em-1.0.