XBI histórico de movimento esperado State Street SPDR S&P Biotech ETF
A cada dia útil, após o fechamento, registramos o que o mercado de opções estava precificando — por expiração, antes de o resultado ser conhecido. Quando uma expiração passa, o resultado é registrado ao lado da estimativa original. As estimativas nunca são revisadas após o fato. Como interpretar estas estatísticas · registrando desde Aug 31, 2026
Comparações resolvidas121
Fechar dentro do intervalo74%
|Real| abaixo do esperado74%
Movimento esperado médio±4.9%
Movimento |real| médio3.9%
Erro médio absoluto1.9pt
Implícita vs. realizada, por vencimento
Para cada expiração: o contorno âmbar é o movimento esperado registrado mais próximo do vencimento; a barra sólida é o que a ação realmente fez. Os valores com sinal aparecem abaixo das barras.
esperado (registrado)real
Atualmente registado (a aguardar resultado)
| Snapshot | Expira | DTE | Spot na época | Movimento esperado | Intervalo | Método |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 19 | Oct 23 | 4 | 147.86 | ±3.4% | 142.80–152.92 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 16 | Oct 23 | 7 | 144.65 | ±4.1% | 138.65–150.65 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 14 | Oct 23 | 9 | 146.77 | ±4.4% | 140.28–153.26 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 13 | Oct 23 | 10 | 147.07 | ±4.1% | 141.09–153.05 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 09 | Oct 23 | 14 | 153.75 | ±4.8% | 146.30–161.20 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 08 | Oct 23 | 15 | 149.50 | ±5.7% | 141.00–158.00 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 07 | Oct 23 | 16 | 150.87 | ±5.1% | 143.12–158.62 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 06 | Oct 23 | 17 | 150.97 | ±5.8% | 142.24–159.69 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 05 | Oct 23 | 18 | 156.35 | ±6.0% | 146.95–165.75 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 02 | Oct 23 | 21 | 154.43 | ±5.9% | 145.33–163.53 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 01 | Oct 23 | 22 | 154.75 | ±6.1% | 145.33–164.18 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 23 | Oct 23 | 30 | 158.43 | ±7.4% | 146.71–170.16 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 22 | Oct 23 | 31 | 158.43 | ±7.4% | 146.71–170.16 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 21 | Oct 23 | 32 | 158.41 | ±7.3% | 146.89–169.94 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 18 | Oct 23 | 35 | 156.22 | ±7.6% | 144.42–168.02 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 17 | Oct 23 | 36 | 157.88 | ±7.9% | 145.38–170.38 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 16 | Oct 23 | 37 | 154.18 | ±7.8% | 142.18–166.18 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 15 | Oct 23 | 38 | 153.65 | ±7.6% | 141.93–165.38 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 14 | Oct 23 | 39 | 157.79 | ±7.8% | 145.49–170.09 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 11 | Oct 23 | 42 | 157.90 | ±8.6% | 144.33–171.48 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 10 | Oct 23 | 43 | 156.61 | ±8.4% | 143.46–169.76 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 09 | Oct 23 | 44 | 160.31 | ±8.6% | 146.59–174.03 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 08 | Oct 23 | 45 | 161.78 | ±8.3% | 148.43–175.13 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 07 | Oct 23 | 46 | 163.81 | ±8.2% | 150.44–177.19 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 04 | Oct 23 | 49 | 164.30 | ±9.2% | 149.22–179.38 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 03 | Oct 23 | 50 | 164.20 | ±9.2% | 149.12–179.28 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 19 | Oct 30 | 11 | 147.86 | ±4.8% | 140.76–154.96 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 16 | Oct 30 | 14 | 144.65 | ±5.5% | 136.75–152.55 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 14 | Oct 30 | 16 | 146.77 | ±5.6% | 138.52–155.02 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 13 | Oct 30 | 17 | 147.07 | ±5.8% | 138.54–155.60 | em-1.0 |
Snapshots encerrados
| Snapshot | Expirado | Esperado | Real | Dentro do intervalo? | Spot → fechamento |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 16, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±0.6% | -0.2% | dentro | 144.65 → 144.32 |
| Oct 14, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±2.3% | -1.7% | dentro | 146.77 → 144.32 |
| Oct 13, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±2.7% | -1.9% | dentro | 147.07 → 144.32 |
| Oct 09, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±3.0% | -6.1% | fora | 153.75 → 144.32 |
| Oct 08, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±4.2% | -3.5% | dentro | 149.50 → 144.32 |
| Oct 07, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±4.1% | -4.3% | fora | 150.87 → 144.32 |
| Oct 06, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±4.5% | -4.4% | dentro | 150.97 → 144.32 |
| Oct 05, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±4.6% | -7.7% | fora | 156.35 → 144.32 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±5.0% | -6.5% | fora | 154.43 → 144.32 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±5.2% | -6.7% | fora | 154.75 → 144.32 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±6.4% | -8.9% | fora | 158.43 → 144.32 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±6.4% | -8.9% | fora | 158.43 → 144.32 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±5.9% | -8.9% | fora | 158.41 → 144.32 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±6.6% | -7.6% | fora | 156.22 → 144.32 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±6.8% | -8.6% | fora | 157.88 → 144.32 |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±7.3% | -6.4% | dentro | 154.18 → 144.32 |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±7.1% | -6.1% | dentro | 153.65 → 144.32 |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±7.0% | -8.5% | fora | 157.79 → 144.32 |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±7.3% | -8.6% | fora | 157.90 → 144.32 |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±7.6% | -7.8% | fora | 156.61 → 144.32 |
| Sep 09, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±7.7% | -10.0% | fora | 160.31 → 144.32 |
| Sep 08, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±7.8% | -10.8% | fora | 161.78 → 144.32 |
| Sep 07, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±8.3% | -11.9% | fora | 163.81 → 144.32 |
| Sep 04, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±8.6% | -12.2% | fora | 164.30 → 144.32 |
| Sep 03, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±8.6% | -12.1% | fora | 164.20 → 144.32 |
| Sep 02, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±8.8% | -12.5% | fora | 164.86 → 144.32 |
| Sep 01, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±8.7% | -11.7% | fora | 163.35 → 144.32 |
| Aug 31, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±8.8% | -10.4% | fora | 161.15 → 144.32 |
| Oct 09, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±0.5% | +0.0% | dentro | 153.75 → 153.77 |
| Oct 08, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±1.9% | +2.9% | fora | 149.50 → 153.77 |
| Oct 07, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±2.0% | +1.9% | dentro | 150.87 → 153.77 |
| Oct 06, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±2.8% | +1.9% | dentro | 150.97 → 153.77 |
| Oct 05, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±3.0% | -1.6% | dentro | 156.35 → 153.77 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±3.2% | -0.4% | dentro | 154.43 → 153.77 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±3.9% | -0.6% | dentro | 154.75 → 153.77 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±5.8% | -2.9% | dentro | 158.43 → 153.77 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±5.8% | -2.9% | dentro | 158.43 → 153.77 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±6.0% | -2.9% | dentro | 158.41 → 153.77 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±6.1% | -1.6% | dentro | 156.22 → 153.77 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±5.8% | -2.6% | dentro | 157.88 → 153.77 |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±6.2% | -0.3% | dentro | 154.18 → 153.77 |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±5.9% | +0.1% | dentro | 153.65 → 153.77 |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±6.1% | -2.5% | dentro | 157.79 → 153.77 |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±6.5% | -2.6% | dentro | 157.90 → 153.77 |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±6.9% | -1.8% | dentro | 156.61 → 153.77 |
| Sep 09, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±7.1% | -4.1% | dentro | 160.31 → 153.77 |
| Sep 08, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±6.7% | -5.0% | dentro | 161.78 → 153.77 |
| Sep 07, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±7.4% | -6.1% | dentro | 163.81 → 153.77 |
| Sep 04, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±8.0% | -6.4% | dentro | 164.30 → 153.77 |
| Sep 03, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±8.1% | -6.4% | dentro | 164.20 → 153.77 |
| Sep 02, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±8.1% | -6.7% | dentro | 164.86 → 153.77 |
| Sep 01, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±8.2% | -5.9% | dentro | 163.35 → 153.77 |
| Aug 31, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±8.4% | -4.6% | dentro | 161.15 → 153.77 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±0.5% | +0.0% | dentro | 154.43 → 154.43 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±1.9% | -0.2% | dentro | 154.75 → 154.43 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±4.3% | -2.5% | dentro | 158.43 → 154.43 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±4.3% | -2.5% | dentro | 158.43 → 154.43 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±4.3% | -2.5% | dentro | 158.41 → 154.43 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±4.6% | -1.1% | dentro | 156.22 → 154.43 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±5.0% | -2.2% | dentro | 157.88 → 154.43 |
Os resultados comparam o intervalo registado com o preço de fecho no dia de expiração. A versão do método é indicada por linha quando difere; atual: em-1.0.