XBI historial de movimiento esperado State Street SPDR S&P Biotech ETF
Cada día de negociación, tras el cierre, registramos lo que el mercado de opciones estaba descontando — por vencimiento, antes de conocerse el resultado. Cuando un vencimiento finaliza, el resultado se anota junto a la estimación original. Las estimaciones nunca se revisan a posteriori. Cómo interpretar estas estadísticas · registrando desde Aug 31, 2026
Comparaciones resueltas93
Cierre dentro del rango89%
|Real| por debajo de lo esperado89%
Movimiento esperado promedio±4.6%
Movimiento |real| promedio2.8%
Error medio abs.2.0pt
Implícita vs realizada, por vencimiento
Para cada vencimiento: el contorno ámbar es el movimiento esperado registrado más cerca del vencimiento; la barra sólida es lo que la acción hizo realmente. Los valores con signo aparecen bajo las barras.
esperado (registrado)real
Registrado actualmente (pendiente de resultado)
| Instantánea | Vence | DTE | Precio entonces | Movimiento esperado | Rango | Método |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 16 | Oct 16 | 0 | 144.65 | ±0.6% | 143.84–145.46 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 14 | Oct 16 | 2 | 146.77 | ±2.3% | 143.37–150.17 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 13 | Oct 16 | 3 | 147.07 | ±2.7% | 143.08–151.06 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 09 | Oct 16 | 7 | 153.75 | ±3.0% | 149.22–158.28 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 08 | Oct 16 | 8 | 149.50 | ±4.2% | 143.24–155.76 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 07 | Oct 16 | 9 | 150.87 | ±4.1% | 144.67–157.07 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 06 | Oct 16 | 10 | 150.97 | ±4.5% | 144.12–157.82 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 05 | Oct 16 | 11 | 156.35 | ±4.6% | 149.12–163.59 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 02 | Oct 16 | 14 | 154.43 | ±5.0% | 146.73–162.13 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 01 | Oct 16 | 15 | 154.75 | ±5.2% | 146.78–162.73 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 23 | Oct 16 | 23 | 158.43 | ±6.4% | 148.28–168.58 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 22 | Oct 16 | 24 | 158.43 | ±6.4% | 148.28–168.58 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 21 | Oct 16 | 25 | 158.41 | ±5.9% | 149.09–167.74 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 18 | Oct 16 | 28 | 156.22 | ±6.6% | 145.94–166.50 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 17 | Oct 16 | 29 | 157.88 | ±6.8% | 147.12–168.62 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 16 | Oct 16 | 30 | 154.18 | ±7.3% | 142.98–165.38 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 15 | Oct 16 | 31 | 153.65 | ±7.1% | 142.75–164.55 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 14 | Oct 16 | 32 | 157.79 | ±7.0% | 146.74–168.84 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 11 | Oct 16 | 35 | 157.90 | ±7.3% | 146.40–169.40 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 10 | Oct 16 | 36 | 156.61 | ±7.6% | 144.74–168.49 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 09 | Oct 16 | 37 | 160.31 | ±7.7% | 147.91–172.71 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 08 | Oct 16 | 38 | 161.78 | ±7.8% | 149.21–174.35 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 07 | Oct 16 | 39 | 163.81 | ±8.3% | 150.16–177.46 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 04 | Oct 16 | 42 | 164.30 | ±8.6% | 150.22–178.38 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 03 | Oct 16 | 43 | 164.20 | ±8.6% | 150.12–178.28 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 02 | Oct 16 | 44 | 164.86 | ±8.8% | 150.41–179.31 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 01 | Oct 16 | 45 | 163.35 | ±8.7% | 149.18–177.53 | em-1.0 |
| Aug 31 | Oct 16 | 46 | 161.15 | ±8.8% | 146.93–175.38 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 16 | Oct 23 | 7 | 144.65 | ±4.1% | 138.65–150.65 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 14 | Oct 23 | 9 | 146.77 | ±4.4% | 140.28–153.26 | em-1.0 |
Instantáneas resueltas
| Instantánea | Vencido | Esperado | Real | ¿Dentro del rango? | Precio → cierre |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 09, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±0.5% | +0.0% | dentro | 153.75 → 153.77 |
| Oct 08, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±1.9% | +2.9% | fuera | 149.50 → 153.77 |
| Oct 07, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±2.0% | +1.9% | dentro | 150.87 → 153.77 |
| Oct 06, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±2.8% | +1.9% | dentro | 150.97 → 153.77 |
| Oct 05, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±3.0% | -1.6% | dentro | 156.35 → 153.77 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±3.2% | -0.4% | dentro | 154.43 → 153.77 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±3.9% | -0.6% | dentro | 154.75 → 153.77 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±5.8% | -2.9% | dentro | 158.43 → 153.77 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±5.8% | -2.9% | dentro | 158.43 → 153.77 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±6.0% | -2.9% | dentro | 158.41 → 153.77 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±6.1% | -1.6% | dentro | 156.22 → 153.77 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±5.8% | -2.6% | dentro | 157.88 → 153.77 |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±6.2% | -0.3% | dentro | 154.18 → 153.77 |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±5.9% | +0.1% | dentro | 153.65 → 153.77 |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±6.1% | -2.5% | dentro | 157.79 → 153.77 |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±6.5% | -2.6% | dentro | 157.90 → 153.77 |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±6.9% | -1.8% | dentro | 156.61 → 153.77 |
| Sep 09, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±7.1% | -4.1% | dentro | 160.31 → 153.77 |
| Sep 08, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±6.7% | -5.0% | dentro | 161.78 → 153.77 |
| Sep 07, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±7.4% | -6.1% | dentro | 163.81 → 153.77 |
| Sep 04, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±8.0% | -6.4% | dentro | 164.30 → 153.77 |
| Sep 03, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±8.1% | -6.4% | dentro | 164.20 → 153.77 |
| Sep 02, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±8.1% | -6.7% | dentro | 164.86 → 153.77 |
| Sep 01, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±8.2% | -5.9% | dentro | 163.35 → 153.77 |
| Aug 31, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±8.4% | -4.6% | dentro | 161.15 → 153.77 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±0.5% | +0.0% | dentro | 154.43 → 154.43 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±1.9% | -0.2% | dentro | 154.75 → 154.43 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±4.3% | -2.5% | dentro | 158.43 → 154.43 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±4.3% | -2.5% | dentro | 158.43 → 154.43 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±4.3% | -2.5% | dentro | 158.41 → 154.43 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±4.6% | -1.1% | dentro | 156.22 → 154.43 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±5.0% | -2.2% | dentro | 157.88 → 154.43 |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±5.1% | +0.2% | dentro | 154.18 → 154.43 |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±5.3% | +0.5% | dentro | 153.65 → 154.43 |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±5.2% | -2.1% | dentro | 157.79 → 154.43 |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±5.5% | -2.2% | dentro | 157.90 → 154.43 |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±6.0% | -1.4% | dentro | 156.61 → 154.43 |
| Sep 09, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±6.3% | -3.7% | dentro | 160.31 → 154.43 |
| Sep 08, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±6.2% | -4.5% | dentro | 161.78 → 154.43 |
| Sep 07, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±6.5% | -5.7% | dentro | 163.81 → 154.43 |
| Sep 04, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±7.3% | -6.0% | dentro | 164.30 → 154.43 |
| Sep 03, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±7.3% | -6.0% | dentro | 164.20 → 154.43 |
| Sep 02, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±7.2% | -6.3% | dentro | 164.86 → 154.43 |
| Sep 01, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±7.0% | -5.5% | dentro | 163.35 → 154.43 |
| Aug 31, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±7.2% | -4.2% | dentro | 161.15 → 154.43 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±2.8% | -2.1% | dentro | 158.43 → 155.03 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±2.8% | -2.1% | dentro | 158.43 → 155.03 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±2.8% | -2.1% | dentro | 158.41 → 155.03 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±3.3% | -0.8% | dentro | 156.22 → 155.03 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±3.7% | -1.8% | dentro | 157.88 → 155.03 |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±4.0% | +0.6% | dentro | 154.18 → 155.03 |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±4.2% | +0.9% | dentro | 153.65 → 155.03 |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±4.3% | -1.7% | dentro | 157.79 → 155.03 |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±4.9% | -1.8% | dentro | 157.90 → 155.03 |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±4.9% | -1.0% | dentro | 156.61 → 155.03 |
| Sep 09, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±5.3% | -3.3% | dentro | 160.31 → 155.03 |
| Sep 08, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±5.2% | -4.2% | dentro | 161.78 → 155.03 |
| Sep 07, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±5.5% | -5.4% | dentro | 163.81 → 155.03 |
| Sep 04, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±6.1% | -5.6% | dentro | 164.30 → 155.03 |
| Sep 03, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±6.1% | -5.6% | dentro | 164.20 → 155.03 |
Los resultados comparan el rango registrado con el precio de cierre en el día de expiración. La versión del método se muestra por fila cuando difiere; actual: em-1.0.