WMT historial de movimiento esperado Walmart Inc.
Cada día de negociación, tras el cierre, registramos lo que el mercado de opciones estaba descontando — por vencimiento, antes de conocerse el resultado. Cuando un vencimiento finaliza, el resultado se anota junto a la estimación original. Las estimaciones nunca se revisan a posteriori. Cómo interpretar estas estadísticas · registrando desde Aug 31, 2026
Comparaciones resueltas121
Cierre dentro del rango67%
|Real| por debajo de lo esperado67%
Movimiento esperado promedio±3.6%
Movimiento |real| promedio3.9%
Error medio abs.2.5pt
Implícita vs realizada, por vencimiento
Para cada vencimiento: el contorno ámbar es el movimiento esperado registrado más cerca del vencimiento; la barra sólida es lo que la acción hizo realmente. Los valores con signo aparecen bajo las barras.
esperado (registrado)real
Registrado actualmente (pendiente de resultado)
| Instantánea | Vence | DTE | Precio entonces | Movimiento esperado | Rango | Método |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 19 | Oct 23 | 4 | 118.51 | ±2.1% | 116.02–121.00 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 16 | Oct 23 | 7 | 118.66 | ±2.6% | 115.62–121.70 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 14 | Oct 23 | 9 | 116.39 | ±3.0% | 112.87–119.92 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 13 | Oct 23 | 10 | 112.13 | ±3.0% | 108.75–115.51 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 09 | Oct 23 | 14 | 111.35 | ±3.3% | 107.72–114.98 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 08 | Oct 23 | 15 | 110.65 | ±3.6% | 106.64–114.67 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 07 | Oct 23 | 16 | 108.02 | ±3.7% | 104.03–112.02 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 06 | Oct 23 | 17 | 107.13 | ±3.9% | 102.97–111.30 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 05 | Oct 23 | 18 | 105.04 | ±4.0% | 100.86–109.22 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 02 | Oct 23 | 21 | 104.28 | ±4.0% | 100.10–108.47 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 01 | Oct 23 | 22 | 104.40 | ±4.3% | 99.87–108.93 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 23 | Oct 23 | 30 | 109.99 | ±5.4% | 104.03–115.95 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 22 | Oct 23 | 31 | 110.01 | ±5.4% | 104.05–115.97 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 21 | Oct 23 | 32 | 107.39 | ±5.4% | 101.57–113.21 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 18 | Oct 23 | 35 | 106.93 | ±5.6% | 100.92–112.94 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 17 | Oct 23 | 36 | 106.62 | ±5.6% | 100.65–112.59 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 16 | Oct 23 | 37 | 107.52 | ±6.0% | 101.06–113.98 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 15 | Oct 23 | 38 | 108.21 | ±6.2% | 101.54–114.88 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 14 | Oct 23 | 39 | 109.11 | ±6.1% | 102.50–115.72 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 11 | Oct 23 | 42 | 107.05 | ±6.3% | 100.33–113.78 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 10 | Oct 23 | 43 | 105.76 | ±6.4% | 98.94–112.58 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 09 | Oct 23 | 44 | 105.77 | ±6.5% | 98.88–112.66 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 08 | Oct 23 | 45 | 105.97 | ±6.9% | 98.70–113.25 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 07 | Oct 23 | 46 | 107.10 | ±6.5% | 100.10–114.10 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 04 | Oct 23 | 49 | 107.14 | ±6.5% | 100.14–114.14 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 03 | Oct 23 | 50 | 108.37 | ±6.7% | 101.14–115.59 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 19 | Oct 30 | 11 | 118.51 | ±3.4% | 114.54–122.48 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 16 | Oct 30 | 14 | 118.66 | ±3.8% | 114.11–123.20 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 14 | Oct 30 | 16 | 116.39 | ±4.0% | 111.71–121.08 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 13 | Oct 30 | 17 | 112.13 | ±3.9% | 107.80–116.46 | em-1.0 |
Instantáneas resueltas
| Instantánea | Vencido | Esperado | Real | ¿Dentro del rango? | Precio → cierre |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 16, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±0.2% | +0.1% | dentro | 118.66 → 118.81 |
| Oct 14, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±1.6% | +2.1% | fuera | 116.39 → 118.81 |
| Oct 13, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±1.8% | +6.0% | fuera | 112.13 → 118.81 |
| Oct 09, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±2.3% | +6.7% | fuera | 111.35 → 118.81 |
| Oct 08, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±2.6% | +7.4% | fuera | 110.65 → 118.81 |
| Oct 07, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±2.8% | +10.0% | fuera | 108.02 → 118.81 |
| Oct 06, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±3.0% | +10.9% | fuera | 107.13 → 118.81 |
| Oct 05, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±3.1% | +13.1% | fuera | 105.04 → 118.81 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±3.5% | +13.9% | fuera | 104.28 → 118.81 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±3.7% | +13.8% | fuera | 104.40 → 118.81 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±4.8% | +8.0% | fuera | 109.99 → 118.81 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±4.8% | +8.0% | fuera | 110.01 → 118.81 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±4.7% | +10.6% | fuera | 107.39 → 118.81 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±5.1% | +11.1% | fuera | 106.93 → 118.81 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±5.3% | +11.4% | fuera | 106.62 → 118.81 |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±5.5% | +10.5% | fuera | 107.52 → 118.81 |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±5.5% | +9.8% | fuera | 108.21 → 118.81 |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±5.5% | +8.9% | fuera | 109.11 → 118.81 |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±5.9% | +11.0% | fuera | 107.05 → 118.81 |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±5.8% | +12.3% | fuera | 105.76 → 118.81 |
| Sep 09, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±5.9% | +12.3% | fuera | 105.77 → 118.81 |
| Sep 08, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±6.4% | +12.1% | fuera | 105.97 → 118.81 |
| Sep 07, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±6.3% | +10.9% | fuera | 107.10 → 118.81 |
| Sep 04, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±6.3% | +10.9% | fuera | 107.14 → 118.81 |
| Sep 03, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±6.1% | +9.6% | fuera | 108.37 → 118.81 |
| Sep 02, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±6.3% | +12.0% | fuera | 106.09 → 118.81 |
| Sep 01, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±6.5% | +12.1% | fuera | 105.96 → 118.81 |
| Aug 31, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±6.3% | +13.4% | fuera | 104.78 → 118.81 |
| Oct 09, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±0.3% | +0.0% | dentro | 111.35 → 111.35 |
| Oct 08, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±1.1% | +0.6% | dentro | 110.65 → 111.35 |
| Oct 07, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±1.4% | +3.1% | fuera | 108.02 → 111.35 |
| Oct 06, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±1.8% | +3.9% | fuera | 107.13 → 111.35 |
| Oct 05, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±2.0% | +6.0% | fuera | 105.04 → 111.35 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±2.3% | +6.8% | fuera | 104.28 → 111.35 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±2.6% | +6.7% | fuera | 104.40 → 111.35 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±4.1% | +1.2% | dentro | 109.99 → 111.35 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±4.1% | +1.2% | dentro | 110.01 → 111.35 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±4.0% | +3.7% | dentro | 107.39 → 111.35 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±4.2% | +4.1% | dentro | 106.93 → 111.35 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±4.4% | +4.4% | fuera | 106.62 → 111.35 |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±4.6% | +3.6% | dentro | 107.52 → 111.35 |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±4.8% | +2.9% | dentro | 108.21 → 111.35 |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±4.8% | +2.1% | dentro | 109.11 → 111.35 |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±4.9% | +4.0% | dentro | 107.05 → 111.35 |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±5.2% | +5.3% | fuera | 105.76 → 111.35 |
| Sep 09, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±5.3% | +5.3% | dentro | 105.77 → 111.35 |
| Sep 08, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±5.6% | +5.1% | dentro | 105.97 → 111.35 |
| Sep 07, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±5.4% | +4.0% | dentro | 107.10 → 111.35 |
| Sep 04, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±5.4% | +3.9% | dentro | 107.14 → 111.35 |
| Sep 03, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±5.5% | +2.8% | dentro | 108.37 → 111.35 |
| Sep 02, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±5.4% | +5.0% | dentro | 106.09 → 111.35 |
| Sep 01, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±5.5% | +5.1% | dentro | 105.96 → 111.35 |
| Aug 31, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±6.4% | +6.3% | dentro | 104.78 → 111.35 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±0.3% | -0.0% | dentro | 104.28 → 104.26 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±1.1% | -0.1% | dentro | 104.40 → 104.26 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±3.2% | -5.2% | fuera | 109.99 → 104.26 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±3.2% | -5.2% | fuera | 110.01 → 104.26 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±3.3% | -2.9% | dentro | 107.39 → 104.26 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±3.5% | -2.5% | dentro | 106.93 → 104.26 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±3.6% | -2.2% | dentro | 106.62 → 104.26 |
Los resultados comparan el rango registrado con el precio de cierre en el día de expiración. La versión del método se muestra por fila cuando difiere; actual: em-1.0.