WFC histórico de movimento esperado Wells Fargo & Company
A cada dia útil, após o fechamento, registramos o que o mercado de opções estava precificando — por expiração, antes de o resultado ser conhecido. Quando uma expiração passa, o resultado é registrado ao lado da estimativa original. As estimativas nunca são revisadas após o fato. Como interpretar estas estatísticas · registrando desde Aug 31, 2026
Comparações resolvidas121
Fechar dentro do intervalo50%
|Real| abaixo do esperado50%
Movimento esperado médio±4.2%
Movimento |real| médio4.4%
Erro médio absoluto2.0pt
Implícita vs. realizada, por vencimento
Para cada expiração: o contorno âmbar é o movimento esperado registrado mais próximo do vencimento; a barra sólida é o que a ação realmente fez. Os valores com sinal aparecem abaixo das barras.
esperado (registrado)real
Atualmente registado (a aguardar resultado)
| Snapshot | Expira | DTE | Spot na época | Movimento esperado | Intervalo | Método |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 19 | Oct 23 | 4 | 82.00 | ±2.4% | 80.03–83.97 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 16 | Oct 23 | 7 | 83.87 | ±3.0% | 81.35–86.39 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 14 | Oct 23 | 9 | 80.70 | ±3.7% | 77.71–83.69 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 13 | Oct 23 | 10 | 80.76 | ±3.7% | 77.74–83.79 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 09 | Oct 23 | 14 | 83.72 | ±5.3% | 79.29–88.15 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 08 | Oct 23 | 15 | 82.02 | ±5.5% | 77.53–86.51 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 07 | Oct 23 | 16 | 80.20 | ±5.7% | 75.64–84.75 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 06 | Oct 23 | 17 | 81.60 | ±5.8% | 76.91–86.30 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 05 | Oct 23 | 18 | 81.59 | ±5.9% | 76.81–86.37 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 02 | Oct 23 | 21 | 80.41 | ±6.4% | 75.30–85.53 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 01 | Oct 23 | 22 | 80.20 | ±6.9% | 74.70–85.70 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 23 | Oct 23 | 30 | 83.36 | ±7.1% | 77.44–89.28 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 22 | Oct 23 | 31 | 83.45 | ±7.1% | 77.52–89.37 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 21 | Oct 23 | 32 | 86.55 | ±6.8% | 80.64–92.47 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 18 | Oct 23 | 35 | 86.17 | ±7.2% | 79.98–92.36 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 17 | Oct 23 | 36 | 86.89 | ±7.1% | 80.70–93.08 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 16 | Oct 23 | 37 | 86.51 | ±7.7% | 79.89–93.13 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 15 | Oct 23 | 38 | 89.72 | ±7.6% | 82.92–96.52 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 14 | Oct 23 | 39 | 88.76 | ±7.6% | 82.04–95.49 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 11 | Oct 23 | 42 | 90.19 | ±7.7% | 83.29–97.09 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 10 | Oct 23 | 43 | 89.80 | ±8.0% | 82.65–96.95 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 09 | Oct 23 | 44 | 89.70 | ±8.0% | 82.55–96.85 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 08 | Oct 23 | 45 | 87.96 | ±8.1% | 80.81–95.11 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 07 | Oct 23 | 46 | 89.97 | ±7.9% | 82.84–97.09 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 04 | Oct 23 | 49 | 89.14 | ±8.0% | 82.03–96.25 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 03 | Oct 23 | 50 | 89.19 | ±8.0% | 82.04–96.34 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 19 | Oct 30 | 11 | 82.00 | ±3.8% | 78.85–85.15 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 16 | Oct 30 | 14 | 83.87 | ±4.2% | 80.39–87.36 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 14 | Oct 30 | 16 | 80.70 | ±4.7% | 76.89–84.52 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 13 | Oct 30 | 17 | 80.76 | ±4.7% | 76.95–84.57 | em-1.0 |
Snapshots encerrados
| Snapshot | Expirado | Esperado | Real | Dentro do intervalo? | Spot → fechamento |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 16, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±0.2% | +0.0% | dentro | 83.87 → 83.87 |
| Oct 14, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±2.7% | +3.9% | fora | 80.70 → 83.87 |
| Oct 13, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±2.7% | +3.8% | fora | 80.76 → 83.87 |
| Oct 09, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±4.7% | +0.2% | dentro | 83.72 → 83.87 |
| Oct 08, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±5.2% | +2.3% | dentro | 82.02 → 83.87 |
| Oct 07, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±5.0% | +4.6% | dentro | 80.20 → 83.87 |
| Oct 06, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±5.0% | +2.8% | dentro | 81.60 → 83.87 |
| Oct 05, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±5.1% | +2.8% | dentro | 81.59 → 83.87 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±5.6% | +4.3% | dentro | 80.41 → 83.87 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±5.8% | +4.6% | dentro | 80.20 → 83.87 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±6.6% | +0.6% | dentro | 83.36 → 83.87 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±6.6% | +0.5% | dentro | 83.45 → 83.87 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±6.3% | -3.1% | dentro | 86.55 → 83.87 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±6.7% | -2.7% | dentro | 86.17 → 83.87 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±6.6% | -3.5% | dentro | 86.89 → 83.87 |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±7.0% | -3.1% | dentro | 86.51 → 83.87 |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±7.1% | -6.5% | dentro | 89.72 → 83.87 |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±7.1% | -5.5% | dentro | 88.76 → 83.87 |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±7.0% | -7.0% | dentro | 90.19 → 83.87 |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±7.6% | -6.6% | dentro | 89.80 → 83.87 |
| Sep 09, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±7.6% | -6.5% | dentro | 89.70 → 83.87 |
| Sep 08, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±7.7% | -4.7% | dentro | 87.96 → 83.87 |
| Sep 07, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±7.5% | -6.8% | dentro | 89.97 → 83.87 |
| Sep 04, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±7.4% | -5.9% | dentro | 89.14 → 83.87 |
| Sep 03, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±7.5% | -6.0% | dentro | 89.19 → 83.87 |
| Sep 02, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±7.7% | -6.3% | dentro | 89.53 → 83.87 |
| Sep 01, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±7.8% | -3.7% | dentro | 87.06 → 83.87 |
| Aug 31, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±7.7% | -3.4% | dentro | 86.81 → 83.87 |
| Oct 09, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±0.4% | -0.2% | dentro | 83.72 → 83.55 |
| Oct 08, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±1.2% | +1.9% | fora | 82.02 → 83.55 |
| Oct 07, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±1.8% | +4.2% | fora | 80.20 → 83.55 |
| Oct 06, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±2.0% | +2.4% | fora | 81.60 → 83.55 |
| Oct 05, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±2.3% | +2.4% | fora | 81.59 → 83.55 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±2.9% | +3.9% | fora | 80.41 → 83.55 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±2.9% | +4.2% | fora | 80.20 → 83.55 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±4.7% | +0.2% | dentro | 83.36 → 83.55 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±4.7% | +0.1% | dentro | 83.45 → 83.55 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±4.4% | -3.5% | dentro | 86.55 → 83.55 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±4.6% | -3.0% | dentro | 86.17 → 83.55 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±4.7% | -3.8% | dentro | 86.89 → 83.55 |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±5.3% | -3.4% | dentro | 86.51 → 83.55 |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±5.3% | -6.9% | fora | 89.72 → 83.55 |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±5.3% | -5.9% | fora | 88.76 → 83.55 |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±5.4% | -7.4% | fora | 90.19 → 83.55 |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±5.7% | -7.0% | fora | 89.80 → 83.55 |
| Sep 09, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±5.7% | -6.9% | fora | 89.70 → 83.55 |
| Sep 08, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±6.0% | -5.0% | dentro | 87.96 → 83.55 |
| Sep 07, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±5.8% | -7.1% | fora | 89.97 → 83.55 |
| Sep 04, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±5.8% | -6.3% | fora | 89.14 → 83.55 |
| Sep 03, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±5.9% | -6.3% | fora | 89.19 → 83.55 |
| Sep 02, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±6.0% | -6.7% | fora | 89.53 → 83.55 |
| Sep 01, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±6.2% | -4.0% | dentro | 87.06 → 83.55 |
| Aug 31, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±6.2% | -3.8% | dentro | 86.81 → 83.55 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±0.5% | +0.1% | dentro | 80.41 → 80.45 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±1.3% | +0.3% | dentro | 80.20 → 80.45 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±3.6% | -3.5% | dentro | 83.36 → 80.45 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±3.6% | -3.6% | fora | 83.45 → 80.45 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±3.5% | -7.0% | fora | 86.55 → 80.45 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±3.8% | -6.6% | fora | 86.17 → 80.45 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±4.0% | -7.4% | fora | 86.89 → 80.45 |
Os resultados comparam o intervalo registado com o preço de fecho no dia de expiração. A versão do método é indicada por linha quando difere; atual: em-1.0.