WFC histórico de movimento esperado Wells Fargo & Company
A cada dia útil, após o fechamento, registramos o que o mercado de opções estava precificando — por expiração, antes de o resultado ser conhecido. Quando uma expiração passa, o resultado é registrado ao lado da estimativa original. As estimativas nunca são revisadas após o fato. Como interpretar estas estatísticas · registrando desde Aug 31, 2026
Comparações resolvidas93
Fechar dentro do intervalo38%
|Real| abaixo do esperado38%
Movimento esperado médio±3.7%
Movimento |real| médio4.5%
Erro médio absoluto1.9pt
Implícita vs. realizada, por vencimento
Para cada expiração: o contorno âmbar é o movimento esperado registrado mais próximo do vencimento; a barra sólida é o que a ação realmente fez. Os valores com sinal aparecem abaixo das barras.
esperado (registrado)real
Atualmente registado (a aguardar resultado)
| Snapshot | Expira | DTE | Spot na época | Movimento esperado | Intervalo | Método |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 16 | Oct 16 | 0 | 83.87 | ±0.2% | 83.66–84.08 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 14 | Oct 16 | 2 | 80.70 | ±2.7% | 78.55–82.85 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 13 | Oct 16 | 3 | 80.76 | ±2.7% | 78.60–82.92 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 09 | Oct 16 | 7 | 83.72 | ±4.7% | 79.81–87.63 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 08 | Oct 16 | 8 | 82.02 | ±5.2% | 77.72–86.33 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 07 | Oct 16 | 9 | 80.20 | ±5.0% | 76.20–84.20 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 06 | Oct 16 | 10 | 81.60 | ±5.0% | 77.54–85.66 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 05 | Oct 16 | 11 | 81.59 | ±5.1% | 77.46–85.72 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 02 | Oct 16 | 14 | 80.41 | ±5.6% | 75.88–84.94 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 01 | Oct 16 | 15 | 80.20 | ±5.8% | 75.51–84.89 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 23 | Oct 16 | 23 | 83.36 | ±6.6% | 77.83–88.89 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 22 | Oct 16 | 24 | 83.45 | ±6.6% | 77.92–88.98 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 21 | Oct 16 | 25 | 86.55 | ±6.3% | 81.12–91.98 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 18 | Oct 16 | 28 | 86.17 | ±6.7% | 80.38–91.96 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 17 | Oct 16 | 29 | 86.89 | ±6.6% | 81.15–92.63 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 16 | Oct 16 | 30 | 86.51 | ±7.0% | 80.42–92.59 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 15 | Oct 16 | 31 | 89.72 | ±7.1% | 83.38–96.06 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 14 | Oct 16 | 32 | 88.76 | ±7.1% | 82.44–95.09 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 11 | Oct 16 | 35 | 90.19 | ±7.0% | 83.86–96.53 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 10 | Oct 16 | 36 | 89.80 | ±7.6% | 83.00–96.60 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 09 | Oct 16 | 37 | 89.70 | ±7.6% | 82.90–96.50 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 08 | Oct 16 | 38 | 87.96 | ±7.7% | 81.21–94.71 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 07 | Oct 16 | 39 | 89.97 | ±7.5% | 83.19–96.75 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 04 | Oct 16 | 42 | 89.14 | ±7.4% | 82.57–95.72 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 03 | Oct 16 | 43 | 89.19 | ±7.5% | 82.47–95.92 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 02 | Oct 16 | 44 | 89.53 | ±7.7% | 82.63–96.43 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 01 | Oct 16 | 45 | 87.06 | ±7.8% | 80.28–93.83 | em-1.0 |
| Aug 31 | Oct 16 | 46 | 86.81 | ±7.7% | 80.11–93.52 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 16 | Oct 23 | 7 | 83.87 | ±3.0% | 81.35–86.39 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 14 | Oct 23 | 9 | 80.70 | ±3.7% | 77.71–83.69 | em-1.0 |
Snapshots encerrados
| Snapshot | Expirado | Esperado | Real | Dentro do intervalo? | Spot → fechamento |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 09, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±0.4% | -0.2% | dentro | 83.72 → 83.55 |
| Oct 08, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±1.2% | +1.9% | fora | 82.02 → 83.55 |
| Oct 07, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±1.8% | +4.2% | fora | 80.20 → 83.55 |
| Oct 06, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±2.0% | +2.4% | fora | 81.60 → 83.55 |
| Oct 05, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±2.3% | +2.4% | fora | 81.59 → 83.55 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±2.9% | +3.9% | fora | 80.41 → 83.55 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±2.9% | +4.2% | fora | 80.20 → 83.55 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±4.7% | +0.2% | dentro | 83.36 → 83.55 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±4.7% | +0.1% | dentro | 83.45 → 83.55 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±4.4% | -3.5% | dentro | 86.55 → 83.55 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±4.6% | -3.0% | dentro | 86.17 → 83.55 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±4.7% | -3.8% | dentro | 86.89 → 83.55 |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±5.3% | -3.4% | dentro | 86.51 → 83.55 |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±5.3% | -6.9% | fora | 89.72 → 83.55 |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±5.3% | -5.9% | fora | 88.76 → 83.55 |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±5.4% | -7.4% | fora | 90.19 → 83.55 |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±5.7% | -7.0% | fora | 89.80 → 83.55 |
| Sep 09, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±5.7% | -6.9% | fora | 89.70 → 83.55 |
| Sep 08, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±6.0% | -5.0% | dentro | 87.96 → 83.55 |
| Sep 07, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±5.8% | -7.1% | fora | 89.97 → 83.55 |
| Sep 04, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±5.8% | -6.3% | fora | 89.14 → 83.55 |
| Sep 03, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±5.9% | -6.3% | fora | 89.19 → 83.55 |
| Sep 02, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±6.0% | -6.7% | fora | 89.53 → 83.55 |
| Sep 01, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±6.2% | -4.0% | dentro | 87.06 → 83.55 |
| Aug 31, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±6.2% | -3.8% | dentro | 86.81 → 83.55 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±0.5% | +0.1% | dentro | 80.41 → 80.45 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±1.3% | +0.3% | dentro | 80.20 → 80.45 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±3.6% | -3.5% | dentro | 83.36 → 80.45 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±3.6% | -3.6% | fora | 83.45 → 80.45 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±3.5% | -7.0% | fora | 86.55 → 80.45 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±3.8% | -6.6% | fora | 86.17 → 80.45 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±4.0% | -7.4% | fora | 86.89 → 80.45 |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±4.5% | -7.0% | fora | 86.51 → 80.45 |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±4.6% | -10.3% | fora | 89.72 → 80.45 |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±4.6% | -9.4% | fora | 88.76 → 80.45 |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±4.6% | -10.8% | fora | 90.19 → 80.45 |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±5.1% | -10.4% | fora | 89.80 → 80.45 |
| Sep 09, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±5.1% | -10.3% | fora | 89.70 → 80.45 |
| Sep 08, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±5.2% | -8.5% | fora | 87.96 → 80.45 |
| Sep 07, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±5.2% | -10.6% | fora | 89.97 → 80.45 |
| Sep 04, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±5.2% | -9.8% | fora | 89.14 → 80.45 |
| Sep 03, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±5.2% | -9.8% | fora | 89.19 → 80.45 |
| Sep 02, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±5.3% | -10.1% | fora | 89.53 → 80.45 |
| Sep 01, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±5.6% | -7.6% | fora | 87.06 → 80.45 |
| Aug 31, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±5.5% | -7.3% | fora | 86.81 → 80.45 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±2.2% | -0.5% | dentro | 83.36 → 82.97 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±2.2% | -0.6% | dentro | 83.45 → 82.97 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±2.3% | -4.1% | fora | 86.55 → 82.97 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±2.6% | -3.7% | fora | 86.17 → 82.97 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±2.9% | -4.5% | fora | 86.89 → 82.97 |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±3.4% | -4.1% | fora | 86.51 → 82.97 |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±3.6% | -7.5% | fora | 89.72 → 82.97 |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±3.7% | -6.5% | fora | 88.76 → 82.97 |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±3.8% | -8.0% | fora | 90.19 → 82.97 |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±4.3% | -7.6% | fora | 89.80 → 82.97 |
| Sep 09, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±4.3% | -7.5% | fora | 89.70 → 82.97 |
| Sep 08, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±4.3% | -5.7% | fora | 87.96 → 82.97 |
| Sep 07, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±4.5% | -7.8% | fora | 89.97 → 82.97 |
| Sep 04, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±4.4% | -6.9% | fora | 89.14 → 82.97 |
| Sep 03, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±4.5% | -7.0% | fora | 89.19 → 82.97 |
Os resultados comparam o intervalo registado com o preço de fecho no dia de expiração. A versão do método é indicada por linha quando difere; atual: em-1.0.