WBD historial de movimiento esperado Warner Bros. Discovery, Inc.
Cada día de negociación, tras el cierre, registramos lo que el mercado de opciones estaba descontando — por vencimiento, antes de conocerse el resultado. Cuando un vencimiento finaliza, el resultado se anota junto a la estimación original. Las estimaciones nunca se revisan a posteriori. Cómo interpretar estas estadísticas · registrando desde Aug 31, 2026
Comparaciones resueltas68
Cierre dentro del rango57%
|Real| por debajo de lo esperado57%
Movimiento esperado promedio±4.3%
Movimiento |real| promedio4.7%
Error medio abs.2.9pt
Implícita vs realizada, por vencimiento
Para cada vencimiento: el contorno ámbar es el movimiento esperado registrado más cerca del vencimiento; la barra sólida es lo que la acción hizo realmente. Los valores con signo aparecen bajo las barras.
esperado (registrado)real
Registrado actualmente (pendiente de resultado)
| Instantánea | Vence | DTE | Precio entonces | Movimiento esperado | Rango | Método |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 05 | Oct 09 | 4 | 30.98 | ±0.1% | 30.93–31.02 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 02 | Oct 09 | 7 | 30.94 | ±0.2% | 30.88–31.00 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 01 | Oct 09 | 8 | 30.94 | ±0.2% | 30.89–30.99 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 23 | Oct 09 | 16 | 30.80 | ±4.1% | 29.54–32.06 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 22 | Oct 09 | 17 | 30.80 | ±4.1% | 29.54–32.06 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 21 | Oct 09 | 18 | 30.80 | ±8.1% | 28.31–33.30 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 18 | Oct 09 | 21 | 27.93 | ±7.6% | 25.81–30.04 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 17 | Oct 09 | 22 | 28.17 | ±10.9% | 25.09–31.25 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 16 | Oct 09 | 23 | 28.04 | ±7.7% | 25.88–30.21 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 15 | Oct 09 | 24 | 28.06 | ±5.3% | 26.57–29.55 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 14 | Oct 09 | 25 | 28.15 | ±8.2% | 25.84–30.45 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 11 | Oct 09 | 28 | 28.09 | ±6.1% | 26.37–29.80 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 10 | Oct 09 | 29 | 27.98 | ±9.9% | 25.21–30.74 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 09 | Oct 09 | 30 | 27.98 | ±9.9% | 25.21–30.74 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 08 | Oct 09 | 31 | 28.07 | ±9.7% | 25.34–30.80 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 07 | Oct 09 | 32 | 28.25 | ±6.7% | 26.34–30.16 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 04 | Oct 09 | 35 | 28.25 | ±10.3% | 25.34–31.16 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 03 | Oct 09 | 36 | 28.37 | ±10.4% | 25.41–31.32 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 02 | Oct 09 | 37 | 28.32 | ±7.8% | 26.11–30.53 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 01 | Oct 09 | 38 | 28.35 | ±11.2% | 25.18–31.52 | em-1.0 |
| Aug 31 | Oct 09 | 39 | 28.62 | ±5.3% | 27.10–30.15 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 05 | Oct 16 | 11 | 30.98 | ±0.1% | 30.93–31.02 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 02 | Oct 16 | 14 | 30.94 | ±0.2% | 30.87–31.01 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 01 | Oct 16 | 15 | 30.94 | ±0.3% | 30.85–31.04 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 23 | Oct 16 | 23 | 30.80 | ±4.1% | 29.54–32.06 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 22 | Oct 16 | 24 | 30.80 | ±4.1% | 29.54–32.06 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 21 | Oct 16 | 25 | 30.80 | ±4.1% | 29.54–32.07 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 18 | Oct 16 | 28 | 27.93 | ±6.5% | 26.11–29.74 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 17 | Oct 16 | 29 | 28.17 | ±7.0% | 26.20–30.14 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 16 | Oct 16 | 30 | 28.04 | ±6.5% | 26.23–29.85 | em-1.0 |
Instantáneas resueltas
| Instantánea | Vencido | Esperado | Real | ¿Dentro del rango? | Precio → cierre |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±0.4% | +0.0% | dentro | 30.94 → 30.94 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±0.1% | -0.0% | dentro | 30.94 → 30.94 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±0.5% | +0.5% | dentro | 30.80 → 30.94 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±0.5% | +0.5% | dentro | 30.80 → 30.94 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±1.0% | +0.5% | dentro | 30.80 → 30.94 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±5.0% | +10.8% | fuera | 27.93 → 30.94 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±6.4% | +9.8% | fuera | 28.17 → 30.94 |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±5.9% | +10.3% | fuera | 28.04 → 30.94 |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±4.9% | +10.3% | fuera | 28.06 → 30.94 |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±5.6% | +9.9% | fuera | 28.15 → 30.94 |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±7.6% | +10.2% | fuera | 28.09 → 30.94 |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±5.1% | +10.6% | fuera | 27.98 → 30.94 |
| Sep 09, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±5.1% | +10.6% | fuera | 27.98 → 30.94 |
| Sep 08, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±7.4% | +10.2% | fuera | 28.07 → 30.94 |
| Sep 07, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±7.8% | +9.5% | fuera | 28.25 → 30.94 |
| Sep 04, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±7.5% | +9.5% | fuera | 28.25 → 30.94 |
| Sep 03, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±8.4% | +9.1% | fuera | 28.37 → 30.94 |
| Sep 02, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±8.2% | +9.3% | fuera | 28.32 → 30.94 |
| Sep 01, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±5.7% | +9.1% | fuera | 28.35 → 30.94 |
| Aug 31, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±8.1% | +8.1% | dentro | 28.62 → 30.94 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±1.3% | +0.2% | dentro | 30.80 → 30.86 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±1.3% | +0.2% | dentro | 30.80 → 30.86 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±0.9% | +0.2% | dentro | 30.80 → 30.86 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±3.4% | +10.5% | fuera | 27.93 → 30.86 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±3.9% | +9.5% | fuera | 28.17 → 30.86 |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±3.4% | +10.0% | fuera | 28.04 → 30.86 |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±3.2% | +10.0% | fuera | 28.06 → 30.86 |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±2.9% | +9.6% | fuera | 28.15 → 30.86 |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±7.3% | +9.9% | fuera | 28.09 → 30.86 |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±3.2% | +10.3% | fuera | 27.98 → 30.86 |
| Sep 09, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±3.2% | +10.3% | fuera | 27.98 → 30.86 |
| Sep 08, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±7.8% | +9.9% | fuera | 28.07 → 30.86 |
| Sep 07, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±5.9% | +9.2% | fuera | 28.25 → 30.86 |
| Sep 04, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±5.3% | +9.2% | fuera | 28.25 → 30.86 |
| Sep 03, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±7.3% | +8.8% | fuera | 28.37 → 30.86 |
| Sep 02, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±7.6% | +9.0% | fuera | 28.32 → 30.86 |
| Sep 01, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±9.6% | +8.9% | dentro | 28.35 → 30.86 |
| Aug 31, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±6.8% | +7.8% | fuera | 28.62 → 30.86 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Sep 18 | ±1.1% | -0.4% | dentro | 27.93 → 27.80 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Sep 18 | ±5.4% | -1.3% | dentro | 28.17 → 27.80 |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Sep 18 | ±1.6% | -0.9% | dentro | 28.04 → 27.80 |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Sep 18 | ±1.9% | -0.9% | dentro | 28.06 → 27.80 |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Sep 18 | ±2.2% | -1.2% | dentro | 28.15 → 27.80 |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Sep 18 | ±2.7% | -1.0% | dentro | 28.09 → 27.80 |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Sep 18 | ±3.3% | -0.6% | dentro | 27.98 → 27.80 |
| Sep 09, 2026 | Sep 18 | ±3.3% | -0.6% | dentro | 27.98 → 27.80 |
| Sep 08, 2026 | Sep 18 | ±3.2% | -1.0% | dentro | 28.07 → 27.80 |
| Sep 07, 2026 | Sep 18 | ±3.6% | -1.6% | dentro | 28.25 → 27.80 |
| Sep 04, 2026 | Sep 18 | ±3.4% | -1.6% | dentro | 28.25 → 27.80 |
| Sep 03, 2026 | Sep 18 | ±6.9% | -2.0% | dentro | 28.37 → 27.80 |
| Sep 02, 2026 | Sep 18 | ±7.9% | -1.8% | dentro | 28.32 → 27.80 |
| Sep 01, 2026 | Sep 18 | ±8.9% | -1.9% | dentro | 28.35 → 27.80 |
| Aug 31, 2026 | Sep 18 | ±9.6% | -2.9% | dentro | 28.62 → 27.80 |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Sep 11 | ±1.0% | -0.2% | dentro | 28.09 → 28.04 |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Sep 11 | ±2.7% | +0.2% | dentro | 27.98 → 28.04 |
| Sep 09, 2026 | Sep 11 | ±2.7% | +0.2% | dentro | 27.98 → 28.04 |
| Sep 08, 2026 | Sep 11 | ±3.0% | -0.1% | dentro | 28.07 → 28.04 |
| Sep 07, 2026 | Sep 11 | ±5.8% | -0.7% | dentro | 28.25 → 28.04 |
| Sep 04, 2026 | Sep 11 | ±5.7% | -0.7% | dentro | 28.25 → 28.04 |
| Sep 03, 2026 | Sep 11 | ±3.5% | -1.2% | dentro | 28.37 → 28.04 |
Los resultados comparan el rango registrado con el precio de cierre en el día de expiración. La versión del método se muestra por fila cuando difiere; actual: em-1.0.