WBD expected-move history Warner Bros. Discovery, Inc.
Every trading day after the close we record what the options market was pricing — per expiration, before the outcome was known. When an expiration passes, the outcome is written next to the original estimate. Estimates are never revised after the fact. How to read these statistics · recording since Aug 31, 2026
Comparisons resolved68
Close inside range57%
|Actual| under expected57%
Avg expected move±4.3%
Avg |actual| move4.7%
Mean abs. error2.9pt
Implied vs realized, by expiration
For each expiration: the amber outline is the expected move recorded closest to expiry; the solid bar is what the stock actually did. Signed values are printed beneath the bars.
expected (recorded)actual
Currently recorded (awaiting outcome)
| Snapshot | Expires | DTE | Spot then | Expected move | Range | Method |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 05 | Oct 09 | 4 | 30.98 | ±0.1% | 30.93–31.02 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 02 | Oct 09 | 7 | 30.94 | ±0.2% | 30.88–31.00 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 01 | Oct 09 | 8 | 30.94 | ±0.2% | 30.89–30.99 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 23 | Oct 09 | 16 | 30.80 | ±4.1% | 29.54–32.06 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 22 | Oct 09 | 17 | 30.80 | ±4.1% | 29.54–32.06 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 21 | Oct 09 | 18 | 30.80 | ±8.1% | 28.31–33.30 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 18 | Oct 09 | 21 | 27.93 | ±7.6% | 25.81–30.04 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 17 | Oct 09 | 22 | 28.17 | ±10.9% | 25.09–31.25 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 16 | Oct 09 | 23 | 28.04 | ±7.7% | 25.88–30.21 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 15 | Oct 09 | 24 | 28.06 | ±5.3% | 26.57–29.55 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 14 | Oct 09 | 25 | 28.15 | ±8.2% | 25.84–30.45 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 11 | Oct 09 | 28 | 28.09 | ±6.1% | 26.37–29.80 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 10 | Oct 09 | 29 | 27.98 | ±9.9% | 25.21–30.74 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 09 | Oct 09 | 30 | 27.98 | ±9.9% | 25.21–30.74 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 08 | Oct 09 | 31 | 28.07 | ±9.7% | 25.34–30.80 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 07 | Oct 09 | 32 | 28.25 | ±6.7% | 26.34–30.16 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 04 | Oct 09 | 35 | 28.25 | ±10.3% | 25.34–31.16 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 03 | Oct 09 | 36 | 28.37 | ±10.4% | 25.41–31.32 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 02 | Oct 09 | 37 | 28.32 | ±7.8% | 26.11–30.53 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 01 | Oct 09 | 38 | 28.35 | ±11.2% | 25.18–31.52 | em-1.0 |
| Aug 31 | Oct 09 | 39 | 28.62 | ±5.3% | 27.10–30.15 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 05 | Oct 16 | 11 | 30.98 | ±0.1% | 30.93–31.02 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 02 | Oct 16 | 14 | 30.94 | ±0.2% | 30.87–31.01 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 01 | Oct 16 | 15 | 30.94 | ±0.3% | 30.85–31.04 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 23 | Oct 16 | 23 | 30.80 | ±4.1% | 29.54–32.06 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 22 | Oct 16 | 24 | 30.80 | ±4.1% | 29.54–32.06 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 21 | Oct 16 | 25 | 30.80 | ±4.1% | 29.54–32.07 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 18 | Oct 16 | 28 | 27.93 | ±6.5% | 26.11–29.74 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 17 | Oct 16 | 29 | 28.17 | ±7.0% | 26.20–30.14 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 16 | Oct 16 | 30 | 28.04 | ±6.5% | 26.23–29.85 | em-1.0 |
Resolved snapshots
| Snapshot | Expired | Expected | Actual | Inside range? | Spot → close |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±0.4% | +0.0% | inside | 30.94 → 30.94 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±0.1% | -0.0% | inside | 30.94 → 30.94 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±0.5% | +0.5% | inside | 30.80 → 30.94 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±0.5% | +0.5% | inside | 30.80 → 30.94 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±1.0% | +0.5% | inside | 30.80 → 30.94 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±5.0% | +10.8% | outside | 27.93 → 30.94 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±6.4% | +9.8% | outside | 28.17 → 30.94 |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±5.9% | +10.3% | outside | 28.04 → 30.94 |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±4.9% | +10.3% | outside | 28.06 → 30.94 |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±5.6% | +9.9% | outside | 28.15 → 30.94 |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±7.6% | +10.2% | outside | 28.09 → 30.94 |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±5.1% | +10.6% | outside | 27.98 → 30.94 |
| Sep 09, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±5.1% | +10.6% | outside | 27.98 → 30.94 |
| Sep 08, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±7.4% | +10.2% | outside | 28.07 → 30.94 |
| Sep 07, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±7.8% | +9.5% | outside | 28.25 → 30.94 |
| Sep 04, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±7.5% | +9.5% | outside | 28.25 → 30.94 |
| Sep 03, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±8.4% | +9.1% | outside | 28.37 → 30.94 |
| Sep 02, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±8.2% | +9.3% | outside | 28.32 → 30.94 |
| Sep 01, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±5.7% | +9.1% | outside | 28.35 → 30.94 |
| Aug 31, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±8.1% | +8.1% | inside | 28.62 → 30.94 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±1.3% | +0.2% | inside | 30.80 → 30.86 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±1.3% | +0.2% | inside | 30.80 → 30.86 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±0.9% | +0.2% | inside | 30.80 → 30.86 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±3.4% | +10.5% | outside | 27.93 → 30.86 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±3.9% | +9.5% | outside | 28.17 → 30.86 |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±3.4% | +10.0% | outside | 28.04 → 30.86 |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±3.2% | +10.0% | outside | 28.06 → 30.86 |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±2.9% | +9.6% | outside | 28.15 → 30.86 |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±7.3% | +9.9% | outside | 28.09 → 30.86 |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±3.2% | +10.3% | outside | 27.98 → 30.86 |
| Sep 09, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±3.2% | +10.3% | outside | 27.98 → 30.86 |
| Sep 08, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±7.8% | +9.9% | outside | 28.07 → 30.86 |
| Sep 07, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±5.9% | +9.2% | outside | 28.25 → 30.86 |
| Sep 04, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±5.3% | +9.2% | outside | 28.25 → 30.86 |
| Sep 03, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±7.3% | +8.8% | outside | 28.37 → 30.86 |
| Sep 02, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±7.6% | +9.0% | outside | 28.32 → 30.86 |
| Sep 01, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±9.6% | +8.9% | inside | 28.35 → 30.86 |
| Aug 31, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±6.8% | +7.8% | outside | 28.62 → 30.86 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Sep 18 | ±1.1% | -0.4% | inside | 27.93 → 27.80 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Sep 18 | ±5.4% | -1.3% | inside | 28.17 → 27.80 |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Sep 18 | ±1.6% | -0.9% | inside | 28.04 → 27.80 |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Sep 18 | ±1.9% | -0.9% | inside | 28.06 → 27.80 |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Sep 18 | ±2.2% | -1.2% | inside | 28.15 → 27.80 |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Sep 18 | ±2.7% | -1.0% | inside | 28.09 → 27.80 |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Sep 18 | ±3.3% | -0.6% | inside | 27.98 → 27.80 |
| Sep 09, 2026 | Sep 18 | ±3.3% | -0.6% | inside | 27.98 → 27.80 |
| Sep 08, 2026 | Sep 18 | ±3.2% | -1.0% | inside | 28.07 → 27.80 |
| Sep 07, 2026 | Sep 18 | ±3.6% | -1.6% | inside | 28.25 → 27.80 |
| Sep 04, 2026 | Sep 18 | ±3.4% | -1.6% | inside | 28.25 → 27.80 |
| Sep 03, 2026 | Sep 18 | ±6.9% | -2.0% | inside | 28.37 → 27.80 |
| Sep 02, 2026 | Sep 18 | ±7.9% | -1.8% | inside | 28.32 → 27.80 |
| Sep 01, 2026 | Sep 18 | ±8.9% | -1.9% | inside | 28.35 → 27.80 |
| Aug 31, 2026 | Sep 18 | ±9.6% | -2.9% | inside | 28.62 → 27.80 |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Sep 11 | ±1.0% | -0.2% | inside | 28.09 → 28.04 |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Sep 11 | ±2.7% | +0.2% | inside | 27.98 → 28.04 |
| Sep 09, 2026 | Sep 11 | ±2.7% | +0.2% | inside | 27.98 → 28.04 |
| Sep 08, 2026 | Sep 11 | ±3.0% | -0.1% | inside | 28.07 → 28.04 |
| Sep 07, 2026 | Sep 11 | ±5.8% | -0.7% | inside | 28.25 → 28.04 |
| Sep 04, 2026 | Sep 11 | ±5.7% | -0.7% | inside | 28.25 → 28.04 |
| Sep 03, 2026 | Sep 11 | ±3.5% | -1.2% | inside | 28.37 → 28.04 |
Outcomes compare the recorded range with the closing price on expiration day. Method version shown per row where it differs; current: em-1.0.