W Verlauf der erwarteten Kursbewegung Wayfair Inc.
Jeden Handelstag nach Börsenschluss erfassen wir, was der Optionsmarkt je Verfallstermin einpreiste – bevor das Ergebnis bekannt war. Sobald ein Verfallstermin verstrichen ist, wird das tatsächliche Ergebnis neben der ursprünglichen Schätzung eingetragen. Schätzungen werden nachträglich nie revidiert. Wie diese Statistiken zu lesen sind · Aufzeichnung seit Aug 31, 2026
Vergleiche aufgelöst93
Schluss innerhalb der Spanne92%
|Ist| unter Erwartung92%
Durchschn. erwartete Bewegung±8.4%
Durchschn. |tatsächliche| Bewegung3.7%
Mittl. abs. Fehler4.9pt
Impliziert vs. realisiert, nach Verfall
Für jeden Verfallstermin: Der gelbe Rahmen zeigt die erwartete Bewegung, die am nächsten vor dem Verfall erfasst wurde; der ausgefüllte Balken zeigt die tatsächliche Kursbewegung. Vorzeichenbehaftete Werte sind unter den Balken abgedruckt.
erwartet (aufgezeichnet)tatsächlich
Derzeit erfasst (Ergebnis ausstehend)
| Momentaufnahme | Läuft ab | DTE | Kurs damals | Erwartete Bewegung | Bereich | Methode |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 16 | Oct 16 | 0 | 106.55 | ±1.1% | 105.42–107.69 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 14 | Oct 16 | 2 | 104.88 | ±4.0% | 100.70–109.06 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 13 | Oct 16 | 3 | 106.19 | ±5.0% | 100.92–111.46 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 09 | Oct 16 | 7 | 105.74 | ±5.7% | 99.70–111.78 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 08 | Oct 16 | 8 | 103.45 | ±6.6% | 96.59–110.31 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 07 | Oct 16 | 9 | 103.88 | ±7.2% | 96.43–111.33 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 06 | Oct 16 | 10 | 104.38 | ±7.4% | 96.66–112.11 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 05 | Oct 16 | 11 | 107.15 | ±7.8% | 98.75–115.55 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 02 | Oct 16 | 14 | 101.08 | ±9.0% | 91.95–110.20 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 01 | Oct 16 | 15 | 102.67 | ±9.5% | 92.87–112.47 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 23 | Oct 16 | 23 | 104.95 | ±11.1% | 93.35–116.55 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 22 | Oct 16 | 24 | 104.95 | ±11.1% | 93.35–116.55 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 21 | Oct 16 | 25 | 105.71 | ±11.1% | 93.94–117.48 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 18 | Oct 16 | 28 | 102.70 | ±11.9% | 90.50–114.90 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 17 | Oct 16 | 29 | 105.90 | ±12.1% | 93.12–118.67 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 16 | Oct 16 | 30 | 105.76 | ±12.6% | 92.48–119.03 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 15 | Oct 16 | 31 | 104.41 | ±13.3% | 90.53–118.28 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 14 | Oct 16 | 32 | 97.98 | ±12.7% | 85.56–110.41 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 11 | Oct 16 | 35 | 98.74 | ±13.1% | 85.79–111.69 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 10 | Oct 16 | 36 | 100.12 | ±14.1% | 85.97–114.27 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 09 | Oct 16 | 37 | 99.54 | ±14.1% | 85.47–113.61 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 08 | Oct 16 | 38 | 100.53 | ±14.5% | 85.92–115.12 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 07 | Oct 16 | 39 | 98.81 | ±14.8% | 84.21–113.41 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 04 | Oct 16 | 42 | 96.98 | ±14.8% | 82.66–111.31 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 03 | Oct 16 | 43 | 97.11 | ±15.3% | 82.28–111.93 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 02 | Oct 16 | 44 | 94.00 | ±15.4% | 79.50–108.50 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 01 | Oct 16 | 45 | 93.48 | ±14.7% | 79.71–107.26 | em-1.0 |
| Aug 31 | Oct 16 | 46 | 97.61 | ±14.6% | 83.36–111.86 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 16 | Oct 23 | 7 | 106.55 | ±6.2% | 99.95–113.14 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 14 | Oct 23 | 9 | 104.88 | ±7.0% | 97.58–112.18 | em-1.0 |
Gespeicherte Momentaufnahmen
| Momentaufnahme | Abgelaufen | Erwartet | Tatsächlich | Innerhalb der Spanne? | Kurs → Schlusskurs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 09, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±0.4% | +0.0% | innerhalb | 105.74 → 105.74 |
| Oct 08, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±3.3% | +2.2% | innerhalb | 103.45 → 105.74 |
| Oct 07, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±3.8% | +1.8% | innerhalb | 103.88 → 105.74 |
| Oct 06, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±4.6% | +1.3% | innerhalb | 104.38 → 105.74 |
| Oct 05, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±5.2% | -1.3% | innerhalb | 107.15 → 105.74 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±6.2% | +4.6% | innerhalb | 101.08 → 105.74 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±7.4% | +3.0% | innerhalb | 102.67 → 105.74 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±10.1% | +0.8% | innerhalb | 104.95 → 105.74 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±10.1% | +0.8% | innerhalb | 104.95 → 105.74 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±9.7% | +0.0% | innerhalb | 105.71 → 105.74 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±10.3% | +3.0% | innerhalb | 102.70 → 105.74 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±11.0% | -0.2% | innerhalb | 105.90 → 105.74 |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±11.3% | -0.0% | innerhalb | 105.76 → 105.74 |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±11.2% | +1.3% | innerhalb | 104.41 → 105.74 |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±12.2% | +7.9% | innerhalb | 97.98 → 105.74 |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±12.0% | +7.1% | innerhalb | 98.74 → 105.74 |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±12.9% | +5.6% | innerhalb | 100.12 → 105.74 |
| Sep 09, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±12.9% | +6.2% | innerhalb | 99.54 → 105.74 |
| Sep 08, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±13.1% | +5.2% | innerhalb | 100.53 → 105.74 |
| Sep 07, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±13.4% | +7.0% | innerhalb | 98.81 → 105.74 |
| Sep 04, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±13.6% | +9.0% | innerhalb | 96.98 → 105.74 |
| Sep 03, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±13.6% | +8.9% | innerhalb | 97.11 → 105.74 |
| Sep 02, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±13.6% | +12.5% | innerhalb | 94.00 → 105.74 |
| Sep 01, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±13.5% | +13.1% | innerhalb | 93.48 → 105.74 |
| Aug 31, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±13.7% | +8.3% | innerhalb | 97.61 → 105.74 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±0.8% | +0.2% | innerhalb | 101.08 → 101.25 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±4.1% | -1.4% | innerhalb | 102.67 → 101.25 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±7.9% | -3.5% | innerhalb | 104.95 → 101.25 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±7.9% | -3.5% | innerhalb | 104.95 → 101.25 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±7.9% | -4.2% | innerhalb | 105.71 → 101.25 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±8.0% | -1.4% | innerhalb | 102.70 → 101.25 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±9.6% | -4.4% | innerhalb | 105.90 → 101.25 |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±9.6% | -4.3% | innerhalb | 105.76 → 101.25 |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±10.1% | -3.0% | innerhalb | 104.41 → 101.25 |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±10.5% | +3.3% | innerhalb | 97.98 → 101.25 |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±10.2% | +2.5% | innerhalb | 98.74 → 101.25 |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±11.4% | +1.1% | innerhalb | 100.12 → 101.25 |
| Sep 09, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±11.7% | +1.7% | innerhalb | 99.54 → 101.25 |
| Sep 08, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±12.1% | +0.7% | innerhalb | 100.53 → 101.25 |
| Sep 07, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±12.6% | +2.5% | innerhalb | 98.81 → 101.25 |
| Sep 04, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±12.0% | +4.4% | innerhalb | 96.98 → 101.25 |
| Sep 03, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±12.5% | +4.3% | innerhalb | 97.11 → 101.25 |
| Sep 02, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±12.3% | +7.7% | innerhalb | 94.00 → 101.25 |
| Sep 01, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±12.1% | +8.3% | innerhalb | 93.48 → 101.25 |
| Aug 31, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±12.3% | +3.7% | innerhalb | 97.61 → 101.25 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±5.1% | -6.5% | außerhalb | 104.95 → 98.15 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±5.1% | -6.5% | außerhalb | 104.95 → 98.15 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±5.2% | -7.2% | außerhalb | 105.71 → 98.15 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±6.0% | -4.4% | innerhalb | 102.70 → 98.15 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±7.3% | -7.3% | außerhalb | 105.90 → 98.15 |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±7.6% | -7.2% | innerhalb | 105.76 → 98.15 |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±7.8% | -6.0% | innerhalb | 104.41 → 98.15 |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±8.5% | +0.2% | innerhalb | 97.98 → 98.15 |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±8.8% | -0.6% | innerhalb | 98.74 → 98.15 |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±9.4% | -2.0% | innerhalb | 100.12 → 98.15 |
| Sep 09, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±9.4% | -1.4% | innerhalb | 99.54 → 98.15 |
| Sep 08, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±10.4% | -2.4% | innerhalb | 100.53 → 98.15 |
| Sep 07, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±10.6% | -0.7% | innerhalb | 98.81 → 98.15 |
| Sep 04, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±10.3% | +1.2% | innerhalb | 96.98 → 98.15 |
| Sep 03, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±10.8% | +1.1% | innerhalb | 97.11 → 98.15 |
Ergebnisse vergleichen die aufgezeichnete Kursspanne mit dem Schlusskurs am Verfallstag. Die Methodenversion wird zeilenweise angezeigt, wo sie abweicht; aktuell: em-1.0.