VLO 预期波动历史 Valero Energy Corporation
每个交易日收盘后，我们记录期权市场对各到期日的定价——均在结果揭晓前留存。到期日过后，实际结果会附记于原始预估值旁。预估值在事后绝不修改。 如何解读这些统计数据 · 记录开始于 Aug 31, 2026
已解决的比较项121
收盘价处于区间内54%
|实际值| 低于预期值54%
平均预期波动幅度±7.5%
平均|实际|波动幅度7.8%
平均绝对误差3.2pt
隐含与已实现波动率，按到期日
每个到期日：琥珀色轮廓框为最接近到期时记录的预期涨跌幅；实心柱为股票实际涨跌幅。柱形下方标注带符号的具体数值。
预期（已记录）实际
已记录（等待结果）
| 快照 | 到期时间 | DTE | 当时现货价 | 预期涨跌幅 | 区间 | 方法 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 19 | Oct 23 | 4 | 433.31 | ±5.6% | 408.96–457.66 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 16 | Oct 23 | 7 | 444.71 | ±6.5% | 415.76–473.66 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 14 | Oct 23 | 9 | 457.50 | ±7.3% | 424.20–490.80 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 13 | Oct 23 | 10 | 456.50 | ±7.3% | 423.10–489.90 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 09 | Oct 23 | 14 | 434.40 | ±7.8% | 400.55–468.25 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 08 | Oct 23 | 15 | 444.65 | ±8.4% | 407.25–482.05 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 07 | Oct 23 | 16 | 424.10 | ±8.3% | 388.80–459.40 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 06 | Oct 23 | 17 | 420.00 | ±8.7% | 383.50–456.50 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 05 | Oct 23 | 18 | 419.57 | ±9.0% | 381.92–457.22 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 02 | Oct 23 | 21 | 406.65 | ±9.8% | 366.85–446.45 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 01 | Oct 23 | 22 | 408.46 | ±10.0% | 367.66–449.26 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 23 | Oct 23 | 30 | 377.25 | ±12.6% | 329.80–424.70 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 22 | Oct 23 | 31 | 377.20 | ±12.6% | 329.75–424.65 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 21 | Oct 23 | 32 | 393.79 | ±12.5% | 344.59–442.99 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 18 | Oct 23 | 35 | 412.90 | ±12.8% | 360.25–465.55 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 17 | Oct 23 | 36 | 411.54 | ±13.1% | 357.49–465.58 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 16 | Oct 23 | 37 | 403.80 | ±13.4% | 349.65–457.95 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 15 | Oct 23 | 38 | 396.37 | ±13.8% | 341.71–451.01 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 14 | Oct 23 | 39 | 379.14 | ±13.1% | 329.44–428.85 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 11 | Oct 23 | 42 | 395.69 | ±13.2% | 343.39–447.99 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 10 | Oct 23 | 43 | 389.78 | ±13.4% | 337.73–441.83 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 09 | Oct 23 | 44 | 389.35 | ±13.5% | 336.95–441.75 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 08 | Oct 23 | 45 | 383.56 | ±13.8% | 330.71–436.41 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 07 | Oct 23 | 46 | 370.60 | ±13.3% | 321.20–420.00 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 04 | Oct 23 | 49 | 371.35 | ±13.4% | 321.65–421.05 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 03 | Oct 23 | 50 | 370.12 | ±13.5% | 320.17–420.07 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 19 | Oct 30 | 11 | 433.31 | ±7.9% | 399.26–467.36 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 16 | Oct 30 | 14 | 444.71 | ±8.4% | 407.16–482.26 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 14 | Oct 30 | 16 | 457.50 | ±9.1% | 415.85–499.15 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 13 | Oct 30 | 17 | 456.50 | ±9.1% | 414.75–498.25 | em-1.0 |
已归档快照
| 快照 | 已到期 | 预期值 | 实际值 | 在区间内？ | 现货价 → 收盘价 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 16, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±0.4% | +0.0% | 区间内 | 444.71 → 444.71 |
| Oct 14, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±3.5% | -2.8% | 区间内 | 457.50 → 444.71 |
| Oct 13, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±3.8% | -2.6% | 区间内 | 456.50 → 444.71 |
| Oct 09, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±4.9% | +2.4% | 区间内 | 434.40 → 444.71 |
| Oct 08, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±5.3% | +0.0% | 区间内 | 444.65 → 444.71 |
| Oct 07, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±5.8% | +4.9% | 区间内 | 424.10 → 444.71 |
| Oct 06, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±6.3% | +5.9% | 区间内 | 420.00 → 444.71 |
| Oct 05, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±6.7% | +6.0% | 区间内 | 419.57 → 444.71 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±7.5% | +9.4% | 区间外 | 406.65 → 444.71 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±7.9% | +8.9% | 区间外 | 408.46 → 444.71 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±11.0% | +17.9% | 区间外 | 377.25 → 444.71 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±11.0% | +17.9% | 区间外 | 377.20 → 444.71 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±11.0% | +12.9% | 区间外 | 393.79 → 444.71 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±11.1% | +7.7% | 区间内 | 412.90 → 444.71 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±11.6% | +8.1% | 区间内 | 411.54 → 444.71 |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±12.0% | +10.1% | 区间内 | 403.80 → 444.71 |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±12.5% | +12.2% | 区间内 | 396.37 → 444.71 |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±11.7% | +17.3% | 区间外 | 379.14 → 444.71 |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±12.1% | +12.4% | 区间外 | 395.69 → 444.71 |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±12.0% | +14.1% | 区间外 | 389.78 → 444.71 |
| Sep 09, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±12.2% | +14.2% | 区间外 | 389.35 → 444.71 |
| Sep 08, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±12.4% | +15.9% | 区间外 | 383.56 → 444.71 |
| Sep 07, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±12.0% | +20.0% | 区间外 | 370.60 → 444.71 |
| Sep 04, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±12.3% | +19.8% | 区间外 | 371.35 → 444.71 |
| Sep 03, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±12.4% | +20.2% | 区间外 | 370.12 → 444.71 |
| Sep 02, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±12.3% | +22.2% | 区间外 | 364.00 → 444.71 |
| Sep 01, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±12.5% | +23.0% | 区间外 | 361.69 → 444.71 |
| Aug 31, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±12.2% | +23.4% | 区间外 | 360.50 → 444.71 |
| Oct 09, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±0.8% | -0.1% | 区间内 | 434.40 → 433.75 |
| Oct 08, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±2.2% | -2.5% | 区间外 | 444.65 → 433.75 |
| Oct 07, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±3.0% | +2.3% | 区间内 | 424.10 → 433.75 |
| Oct 06, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±3.9% | +3.3% | 区间内 | 420.00 → 433.75 |
| Oct 05, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±4.4% | +3.4% | 区间内 | 419.57 → 433.75 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±5.3% | +6.7% | 区间外 | 406.65 → 433.75 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±5.8% | +6.2% | 区间外 | 408.46 → 433.75 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±9.3% | +15.0% | 区间外 | 377.25 → 433.75 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±9.3% | +15.0% | 区间外 | 377.20 → 433.75 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±9.5% | +10.1% | 区间外 | 393.79 → 433.75 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±9.6% | +5.0% | 区间内 | 412.90 → 433.75 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±10.2% | +5.4% | 区间内 | 411.54 → 433.75 |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±10.7% | +7.4% | 区间内 | 403.80 → 433.75 |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±10.8% | +9.4% | 区间内 | 396.37 → 433.75 |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±10.5% | +14.4% | 区间外 | 379.14 → 433.75 |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±10.7% | +9.6% | 区间内 | 395.69 → 433.75 |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±10.8% | +11.3% | 区间外 | 389.78 → 433.75 |
| Sep 09, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±10.9% | +11.4% | 区间外 | 389.35 → 433.75 |
| Sep 08, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±11.0% | +13.1% | 区间外 | 383.56 → 433.75 |
| Sep 07, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±10.9% | +17.0% | 区间外 | 370.60 → 433.75 |
| Sep 04, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±11.0% | +16.8% | 区间外 | 371.35 → 433.75 |
| Sep 03, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±11.0% | +17.2% | 区间外 | 370.12 → 433.75 |
| Sep 02, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±11.4% | +19.2% | 区间外 | 364.00 → 433.75 |
| Sep 01, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±11.2% | +19.9% | 区间外 | 361.69 → 433.75 |
| Aug 31, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±11.1% | +20.3% | 区间外 | 360.50 → 433.75 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±0.7% | -0.1% | 区间内 | 406.65 → 406.30 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±2.2% | -0.5% | 区间内 | 408.46 → 406.30 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±7.2% | +7.7% | 区间外 | 377.25 → 406.30 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±7.2% | +7.7% | 区间外 | 377.20 → 406.30 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±7.7% | +3.2% | 区间内 | 393.79 → 406.30 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±7.7% | -1.6% | 区间内 | 412.90 → 406.30 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±8.4% | -1.3% | 区间内 | 411.54 → 406.30 |
结果通过比较记录的价格区间与到期日收盘价得出。各行显示所用方法版本（与当前版本不同时）；当前版本： em-1.0.