VLO historial de movimiento esperado Valero Energy Corporation
Cada día de negociación, tras el cierre, registramos lo que el mercado de opciones estaba descontando — por vencimiento, antes de conocerse el resultado. Cuando un vencimiento finaliza, el resultado se anota junto a la estimación original. Las estimaciones nunca se revisan a posteriori. Cómo interpretar estas estadísticas · registrando desde Aug 31, 2026
Comparaciones resueltas121
Cierre dentro del rango54%
|Real| por debajo de lo esperado54%
Movimiento esperado promedio±7.5%
Movimiento |real| promedio7.8%
Error medio abs.3.2pt
Implícita vs realizada, por vencimiento
Para cada vencimiento: el contorno ámbar es el movimiento esperado registrado más cerca del vencimiento; la barra sólida es lo que la acción hizo realmente. Los valores con signo aparecen bajo las barras.
esperado (registrado)real
Registrado actualmente (pendiente de resultado)
| Instantánea | Vence | DTE | Precio entonces | Movimiento esperado | Rango | Método |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 19 | Oct 23 | 4 | 433.31 | ±5.6% | 408.96–457.66 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 16 | Oct 23 | 7 | 444.71 | ±6.5% | 415.76–473.66 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 14 | Oct 23 | 9 | 457.50 | ±7.3% | 424.20–490.80 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 13 | Oct 23 | 10 | 456.50 | ±7.3% | 423.10–489.90 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 09 | Oct 23 | 14 | 434.40 | ±7.8% | 400.55–468.25 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 08 | Oct 23 | 15 | 444.65 | ±8.4% | 407.25–482.05 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 07 | Oct 23 | 16 | 424.10 | ±8.3% | 388.80–459.40 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 06 | Oct 23 | 17 | 420.00 | ±8.7% | 383.50–456.50 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 05 | Oct 23 | 18 | 419.57 | ±9.0% | 381.92–457.22 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 02 | Oct 23 | 21 | 406.65 | ±9.8% | 366.85–446.45 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 01 | Oct 23 | 22 | 408.46 | ±10.0% | 367.66–449.26 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 23 | Oct 23 | 30 | 377.25 | ±12.6% | 329.80–424.70 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 22 | Oct 23 | 31 | 377.20 | ±12.6% | 329.75–424.65 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 21 | Oct 23 | 32 | 393.79 | ±12.5% | 344.59–442.99 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 18 | Oct 23 | 35 | 412.90 | ±12.8% | 360.25–465.55 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 17 | Oct 23 | 36 | 411.54 | ±13.1% | 357.49–465.58 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 16 | Oct 23 | 37 | 403.80 | ±13.4% | 349.65–457.95 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 15 | Oct 23 | 38 | 396.37 | ±13.8% | 341.71–451.01 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 14 | Oct 23 | 39 | 379.14 | ±13.1% | 329.44–428.85 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 11 | Oct 23 | 42 | 395.69 | ±13.2% | 343.39–447.99 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 10 | Oct 23 | 43 | 389.78 | ±13.4% | 337.73–441.83 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 09 | Oct 23 | 44 | 389.35 | ±13.5% | 336.95–441.75 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 08 | Oct 23 | 45 | 383.56 | ±13.8% | 330.71–436.41 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 07 | Oct 23 | 46 | 370.60 | ±13.3% | 321.20–420.00 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 04 | Oct 23 | 49 | 371.35 | ±13.4% | 321.65–421.05 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 03 | Oct 23 | 50 | 370.12 | ±13.5% | 320.17–420.07 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 19 | Oct 30 | 11 | 433.31 | ±7.9% | 399.26–467.36 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 16 | Oct 30 | 14 | 444.71 | ±8.4% | 407.16–482.26 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 14 | Oct 30 | 16 | 457.50 | ±9.1% | 415.85–499.15 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 13 | Oct 30 | 17 | 456.50 | ±9.1% | 414.75–498.25 | em-1.0 |
Instantáneas resueltas
| Instantánea | Vencido | Esperado | Real | ¿Dentro del rango? | Precio → cierre |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 16, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±0.4% | +0.0% | dentro | 444.71 → 444.71 |
| Oct 14, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±3.5% | -2.8% | dentro | 457.50 → 444.71 |
| Oct 13, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±3.8% | -2.6% | dentro | 456.50 → 444.71 |
| Oct 09, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±4.9% | +2.4% | dentro | 434.40 → 444.71 |
| Oct 08, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±5.3% | +0.0% | dentro | 444.65 → 444.71 |
| Oct 07, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±5.8% | +4.9% | dentro | 424.10 → 444.71 |
| Oct 06, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±6.3% | +5.9% | dentro | 420.00 → 444.71 |
| Oct 05, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±6.7% | +6.0% | dentro | 419.57 → 444.71 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±7.5% | +9.4% | fuera | 406.65 → 444.71 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±7.9% | +8.9% | fuera | 408.46 → 444.71 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±11.0% | +17.9% | fuera | 377.25 → 444.71 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±11.0% | +17.9% | fuera | 377.20 → 444.71 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±11.0% | +12.9% | fuera | 393.79 → 444.71 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±11.1% | +7.7% | dentro | 412.90 → 444.71 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±11.6% | +8.1% | dentro | 411.54 → 444.71 |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±12.0% | +10.1% | dentro | 403.80 → 444.71 |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±12.5% | +12.2% | dentro | 396.37 → 444.71 |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±11.7% | +17.3% | fuera | 379.14 → 444.71 |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±12.1% | +12.4% | fuera | 395.69 → 444.71 |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±12.0% | +14.1% | fuera | 389.78 → 444.71 |
| Sep 09, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±12.2% | +14.2% | fuera | 389.35 → 444.71 |
| Sep 08, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±12.4% | +15.9% | fuera | 383.56 → 444.71 |
| Sep 07, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±12.0% | +20.0% | fuera | 370.60 → 444.71 |
| Sep 04, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±12.3% | +19.8% | fuera | 371.35 → 444.71 |
| Sep 03, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±12.4% | +20.2% | fuera | 370.12 → 444.71 |
| Sep 02, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±12.3% | +22.2% | fuera | 364.00 → 444.71 |
| Sep 01, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±12.5% | +23.0% | fuera | 361.69 → 444.71 |
| Aug 31, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±12.2% | +23.4% | fuera | 360.50 → 444.71 |
| Oct 09, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±0.8% | -0.1% | dentro | 434.40 → 433.75 |
| Oct 08, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±2.2% | -2.5% | fuera | 444.65 → 433.75 |
| Oct 07, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±3.0% | +2.3% | dentro | 424.10 → 433.75 |
| Oct 06, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±3.9% | +3.3% | dentro | 420.00 → 433.75 |
| Oct 05, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±4.4% | +3.4% | dentro | 419.57 → 433.75 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±5.3% | +6.7% | fuera | 406.65 → 433.75 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±5.8% | +6.2% | fuera | 408.46 → 433.75 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±9.3% | +15.0% | fuera | 377.25 → 433.75 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±9.3% | +15.0% | fuera | 377.20 → 433.75 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±9.5% | +10.1% | fuera | 393.79 → 433.75 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±9.6% | +5.0% | dentro | 412.90 → 433.75 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±10.2% | +5.4% | dentro | 411.54 → 433.75 |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±10.7% | +7.4% | dentro | 403.80 → 433.75 |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±10.8% | +9.4% | dentro | 396.37 → 433.75 |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±10.5% | +14.4% | fuera | 379.14 → 433.75 |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±10.7% | +9.6% | dentro | 395.69 → 433.75 |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±10.8% | +11.3% | fuera | 389.78 → 433.75 |
| Sep 09, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±10.9% | +11.4% | fuera | 389.35 → 433.75 |
| Sep 08, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±11.0% | +13.1% | fuera | 383.56 → 433.75 |
| Sep 07, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±10.9% | +17.0% | fuera | 370.60 → 433.75 |
| Sep 04, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±11.0% | +16.8% | fuera | 371.35 → 433.75 |
| Sep 03, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±11.0% | +17.2% | fuera | 370.12 → 433.75 |
| Sep 02, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±11.4% | +19.2% | fuera | 364.00 → 433.75 |
| Sep 01, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±11.2% | +19.9% | fuera | 361.69 → 433.75 |
| Aug 31, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±11.1% | +20.3% | fuera | 360.50 → 433.75 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±0.7% | -0.1% | dentro | 406.65 → 406.30 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±2.2% | -0.5% | dentro | 408.46 → 406.30 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±7.2% | +7.7% | fuera | 377.25 → 406.30 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±7.2% | +7.7% | fuera | 377.20 → 406.30 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±7.7% | +3.2% | dentro | 393.79 → 406.30 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±7.7% | -1.6% | dentro | 412.90 → 406.30 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±8.4% | -1.3% | dentro | 411.54 → 406.30 |
Los resultados comparan el rango registrado con el precio de cierre en el día de expiración. La versión del método se muestra por fila cuando difiere; actual: em-1.0.