V historial de movimiento esperado Visa Inc.
Cada día de negociación, tras el cierre, registramos lo que el mercado de opciones estaba descontando — por vencimiento, antes de conocerse el resultado. Cuando un vencimiento finaliza, el resultado se anota junto a la estimación original. Las estimaciones nunca se revisan a posteriori. Cómo interpretar estas estadísticas · registrando desde Aug 31, 2026
Comparaciones resueltas121
Cierre dentro del rango58%
|Real| por debajo de lo esperado58%
Movimiento esperado promedio±3.1%
Movimiento |real| promedio3.5%
Error medio abs.1.8pt
Implícita vs realizada, por vencimiento
Para cada vencimiento: el contorno ámbar es el movimiento esperado registrado más cerca del vencimiento; la barra sólida es lo que la acción hizo realmente. Los valores con signo aparecen bajo las barras.
esperado (registrado)real
Registrado actualmente (pendiente de resultado)
| Instantánea | Vence | DTE | Precio entonces | Movimiento esperado | Rango | Método |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 19 | Oct 23 | 4 | 402.92 | ±1.8% | 395.50–410.35 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 16 | Oct 23 | 7 | 402.61 | ±2.2% | 393.56–411.66 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 14 | Oct 23 | 9 | 390.65 | ±2.6% | 380.50–400.80 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 13 | Oct 23 | 10 | 395.89 | ±2.7% | 385.21–406.56 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 09 | Oct 23 | 14 | 385.21 | ±3.0% | 373.49–396.94 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 08 | Oct 23 | 15 | 375.50 | ±3.5% | 362.18–388.82 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 07 | Oct 23 | 16 | 372.30 | ±3.2% | 360.40–384.20 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 06 | Oct 23 | 17 | 370.23 | ±3.6% | 357.06–383.40 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 05 | Oct 23 | 18 | 369.71 | ±3.7% | 356.13–383.29 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 02 | Oct 23 | 21 | 360.73 | ±3.9% | 346.78–374.68 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 01 | Oct 23 | 22 | 359.85 | ±4.2% | 344.90–374.80 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 23 | Oct 23 | 30 | 362.65 | ±4.7% | 345.50–379.80 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 22 | Oct 23 | 31 | 362.65 | ±4.7% | 345.50–379.80 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 21 | Oct 23 | 32 | 370.55 | ±4.8% | 352.77–388.32 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 18 | Oct 23 | 35 | 369.77 | ±4.9% | 351.80–387.75 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 17 | Oct 23 | 36 | 369.14 | ±5.0% | 350.52–387.77 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 16 | Oct 23 | 37 | 370.62 | ±5.3% | 351.14–390.10 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 15 | Oct 23 | 38 | 376.48 | ±5.4% | 356.33–396.63 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 14 | Oct 23 | 39 | 375.85 | ±5.4% | 355.52–396.18 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 11 | Oct 23 | 42 | 371.23 | ±5.5% | 350.98–391.48 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 10 | Oct 23 | 43 | 366.95 | ±5.9% | 345.48–388.43 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 09 | Oct 23 | 44 | 367.89 | ±5.9% | 346.26–389.51 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 08 | Oct 23 | 45 | 369.20 | ±5.9% | 347.27–391.12 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 07 | Oct 23 | 46 | 375.07 | ±5.8% | 353.42–396.72 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 04 | Oct 23 | 49 | 374.69 | ±5.8% | 353.04–396.34 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 03 | Oct 23 | 50 | 378.50 | ±5.9% | 356.23–400.77 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 19 | Oct 30 | 11 | 402.92 | ±4.0% | 386.87–418.97 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 16 | Oct 30 | 14 | 402.61 | ±4.4% | 385.08–420.13 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 14 | Oct 30 | 16 | 390.65 | ±4.5% | 373.05–408.25 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 13 | Oct 30 | 17 | 395.89 | ±4.7% | 377.46–414.31 | em-1.0 |
Instantáneas resueltas
| Instantánea | Vencido | Esperado | Real | ¿Dentro del rango? | Precio → cierre |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 16, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±0.1% | +0.0% | dentro | 402.61 → 402.61 |
| Oct 14, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±1.6% | +3.1% | fuera | 390.65 → 402.61 |
| Oct 13, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±1.6% | +1.7% | fuera | 395.89 → 402.61 |
| Oct 09, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±2.0% | +4.5% | fuera | 385.21 → 402.61 |
| Oct 08, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±2.5% | +7.2% | fuera | 375.50 → 402.61 |
| Oct 07, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±2.4% | +8.1% | fuera | 372.30 → 402.61 |
| Oct 06, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±2.7% | +8.7% | fuera | 370.23 → 402.61 |
| Oct 05, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±2.8% | +8.9% | fuera | 369.71 → 402.61 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±3.0% | +11.6% | fuera | 360.73 → 402.61 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±3.2% | +11.9% | fuera | 359.85 → 402.61 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±4.2% | +11.0% | fuera | 362.65 → 402.61 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±4.2% | +11.0% | fuera | 362.65 → 402.61 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±4.1% | +8.7% | fuera | 370.55 → 402.61 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±4.3% | +8.9% | fuera | 369.77 → 402.61 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±4.3% | +9.1% | fuera | 369.14 → 402.61 |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±4.7% | +8.6% | fuera | 370.62 → 402.61 |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±4.7% | +6.9% | fuera | 376.48 → 402.61 |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±4.8% | +7.1% | fuera | 375.85 → 402.61 |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±4.8% | +8.5% | fuera | 371.23 → 402.61 |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±5.3% | +9.7% | fuera | 366.95 → 402.61 |
| Sep 09, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±5.2% | +9.4% | fuera | 367.89 → 402.61 |
| Sep 08, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±5.3% | +9.0% | fuera | 369.20 → 402.61 |
| Sep 07, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±5.3% | +7.3% | fuera | 375.07 → 402.61 |
| Sep 04, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±5.3% | +7.5% | fuera | 374.69 → 402.61 |
| Sep 03, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±5.3% | +6.4% | fuera | 378.50 → 402.61 |
| Sep 02, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±5.5% | +6.4% | fuera | 378.50 → 402.61 |
| Sep 01, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±5.6% | +7.9% | fuera | 373.11 → 402.61 |
| Aug 31, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±5.6% | +6.1% | fuera | 379.60 → 402.61 |
| Oct 09, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±0.2% | +0.1% | dentro | 385.21 → 385.45 |
| Oct 08, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±1.1% | +2.6% | fuera | 375.50 → 385.45 |
| Oct 07, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±1.2% | +3.5% | fuera | 372.30 → 385.45 |
| Oct 06, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±1.6% | +4.1% | fuera | 370.23 → 385.45 |
| Oct 05, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±1.8% | +4.3% | fuera | 369.71 → 385.45 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±2.1% | +6.9% | fuera | 360.73 → 385.45 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±2.3% | +7.1% | fuera | 359.85 → 385.45 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±3.6% | +6.3% | fuera | 362.65 → 385.45 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±3.6% | +6.3% | fuera | 362.65 → 385.45 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±3.5% | +4.0% | fuera | 370.55 → 385.45 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±3.6% | +4.2% | fuera | 369.77 → 385.45 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±3.8% | +4.4% | fuera | 369.14 → 385.45 |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±4.2% | +4.0% | dentro | 370.62 → 385.45 |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±4.2% | +2.4% | dentro | 376.48 → 385.45 |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±4.2% | +2.6% | dentro | 375.85 → 385.45 |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±4.2% | +3.8% | dentro | 371.23 → 385.45 |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±4.7% | +5.0% | fuera | 366.95 → 385.45 |
| Sep 09, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±4.7% | +4.8% | fuera | 367.89 → 385.45 |
| Sep 08, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±4.8% | +4.4% | dentro | 369.20 → 385.45 |
| Sep 07, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±4.7% | +2.8% | dentro | 375.07 → 385.45 |
| Sep 04, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±4.7% | +2.9% | dentro | 374.69 → 385.45 |
| Sep 03, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±4.8% | +1.8% | dentro | 378.50 → 385.45 |
| Sep 02, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±4.9% | +1.8% | dentro | 378.50 → 385.45 |
| Sep 01, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±5.1% | +3.3% | dentro | 373.11 → 385.45 |
| Aug 31, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±5.1% | +1.5% | dentro | 379.60 → 385.45 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±0.2% | -0.0% | dentro | 360.73 → 360.66 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±0.9% | +0.2% | dentro | 359.85 → 360.66 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±2.8% | -0.5% | dentro | 362.65 → 360.66 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±2.8% | -0.5% | dentro | 362.65 → 360.66 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±2.8% | -2.7% | dentro | 370.55 → 360.66 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±3.0% | -2.5% | dentro | 369.77 → 360.66 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±3.1% | -2.3% | dentro | 369.14 → 360.66 |
Los resultados comparan el rango registrado con el precio de cierre en el día de expiración. La versión del método se muestra por fila cuando difiere; actual: em-1.0.