URA histórico de movimento esperado Global X - Uranium ETF
A cada dia útil, após o fechamento, registramos o que o mercado de opções estava precificando — por expiração, antes de o resultado ser conhecido. Quando uma expiração passa, o resultado é registrado ao lado da estimativa original. As estimativas nunca são revisadas após o fato. Como interpretar estas estatísticas · registrando desde Aug 31, 2026
Comparações resolvidas121
Fechar dentro do intervalo35%
|Real| abaixo do esperado35%
Movimento esperado médio±7.1%
Movimento |real| médio9.2%
Erro médio absoluto3.5pt
Implícita vs. realizada, por vencimento
Para cada expiração: o contorno âmbar é o movimento esperado registrado mais próximo do vencimento; a barra sólida é o que a ação realmente fez. Os valores com sinal aparecem abaixo das barras.
esperado (registrado)real
Atualmente registado (a aguardar resultado)
| Snapshot | Expira | DTE | Spot na época | Movimento esperado | Intervalo | Método |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 19 | Oct 23 | 4 | 35.47 | ±3.7% | 34.17–36.77 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 16 | Oct 23 | 7 | 35.45 | ±4.7% | 33.80–37.10 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 14 | Oct 23 | 9 | 35.57 | ±5.8% | 33.49–37.65 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 13 | Oct 23 | 10 | 37.54 | ±5.7% | 35.39–39.69 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 09 | Oct 23 | 14 | 38.91 | ±6.3% | 36.46–41.36 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 08 | Oct 23 | 15 | 38.61 | ±6.9% | 35.96–41.26 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 07 | Oct 23 | 16 | 39.90 | ±7.2% | 37.02–42.77 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 06 | Oct 23 | 17 | 41.96 | ±7.3% | 38.91–45.01 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 05 | Oct 23 | 18 | 40.10 | ±7.5% | 37.08–43.13 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 02 | Oct 23 | 21 | 39.81 | ±8.1% | 36.59–43.04 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 01 | Oct 23 | 22 | 39.52 | ±8.4% | 36.22–42.81 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 23 | Oct 23 | 30 | 43.74 | ±10.3% | 39.22–48.27 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 22 | Oct 23 | 31 | 43.83 | ±11.3% | 38.88–48.78 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 21 | Oct 23 | 32 | 43.09 | ±10.2% | 38.72–47.47 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 18 | Oct 23 | 35 | 41.77 | ±11.1% | 37.15–46.40 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 17 | Oct 23 | 36 | 42.80 | ±11.0% | 38.10–47.50 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 16 | Oct 23 | 37 | 40.87 | ±11.7% | 36.07–45.67 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 15 | Oct 23 | 38 | 41.73 | ±11.9% | 36.78–46.68 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 14 | Oct 23 | 39 | 42.16 | ±11.6% | 37.26–47.06 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 11 | Oct 23 | 42 | 43.60 | ±12.8% | 38.02–49.17 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 10 | Oct 23 | 43 | 44.95 | ±12.6% | 39.30–50.60 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 09 | Oct 23 | 44 | 46.99 | ±13.0% | 40.89–53.09 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 08 | Oct 23 | 45 | 47.37 | ±12.8% | 41.30–53.45 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 07 | Oct 23 | 46 | 46.06 | ±11.8% | 40.63–51.48 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 04 | Oct 23 | 49 | 46.05 | ±11.8% | 40.62–51.48 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 03 | Oct 23 | 50 | 45.53 | ±12.3% | 39.93–51.13 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 19 | Oct 30 | 11 | 35.47 | ±6.1% | 33.32–37.62 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 16 | Oct 30 | 14 | 35.45 | ±6.7% | 33.08–37.83 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 14 | Oct 30 | 16 | 35.57 | ±7.3% | 32.97–38.17 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 13 | Oct 30 | 17 | 37.54 | ±7.5% | 34.72–40.37 | em-1.0 |
Snapshots encerrados
| Snapshot | Expirado | Esperado | Real | Dentro do intervalo? | Spot → fechamento |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 16, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±1.5% | -0.1% | dentro | 35.45 → 35.43 |
| Oct 14, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±3.0% | -0.4% | dentro | 35.57 → 35.43 |
| Oct 13, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±3.5% | -5.6% | fora | 37.54 → 35.43 |
| Oct 09, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±4.1% | -8.9% | fora | 38.91 → 35.43 |
| Oct 08, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±5.1% | -8.2% | fora | 38.61 → 35.43 |
| Oct 07, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±4.8% | -11.2% | fora | 39.90 → 35.43 |
| Oct 06, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±5.7% | -15.6% | fora | 41.96 → 35.43 |
| Oct 05, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±5.7% | -11.7% | fora | 40.10 → 35.43 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±6.1% | -11.0% | fora | 39.81 → 35.43 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±6.8% | -10.3% | fora | 39.52 → 35.43 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±9.1% | -19.0% | fora | 43.74 → 35.43 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±9.0% | -19.2% | fora | 43.83 → 35.43 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±8.9% | -17.8% | fora | 43.09 → 35.43 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±9.9% | -15.2% | fora | 41.77 → 35.43 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±9.8% | -17.2% | fora | 42.80 → 35.43 |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±10.2% | -13.3% | fora | 40.87 → 35.43 |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±10.4% | -15.1% | fora | 41.73 → 35.43 |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±10.6% | -16.0% | fora | 42.16 → 35.43 |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±11.0% | -18.7% | fora | 43.60 → 35.43 |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±11.3% | -21.2% | fora | 44.95 → 35.43 |
| Sep 09, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±11.9% | -24.6% | fora | 46.99 → 35.43 |
| Sep 08, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±11.7% | -25.2% | fora | 47.37 → 35.43 |
| Sep 07, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±11.8% | -23.1% | fora | 46.06 → 35.43 |
| Sep 04, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±11.8% | -23.1% | fora | 46.05 → 35.43 |
| Sep 03, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±11.8% | -22.2% | fora | 45.53 → 35.43 |
| Sep 02, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±12.3% | -20.1% | fora | 44.35 → 35.43 |
| Sep 01, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±12.3% | -19.8% | fora | 44.16 → 35.43 |
| Aug 31, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±12.3% | -21.9% | fora | 45.35 → 35.43 |
| Oct 09, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±0.6% | -0.0% | dentro | 38.91 → 38.90 |
| Oct 08, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±2.5% | +0.8% | dentro | 38.61 → 38.90 |
| Oct 07, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±2.5% | -2.5% | dentro | 39.90 → 38.90 |
| Oct 06, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±3.4% | -7.3% | fora | 41.96 → 38.90 |
| Oct 05, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±4.1% | -3.0% | dentro | 40.10 → 38.90 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±4.1% | -2.3% | dentro | 39.81 → 38.90 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±5.1% | -1.6% | dentro | 39.52 → 38.90 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±7.4% | -11.1% | fora | 43.74 → 38.90 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±7.8% | -11.2% | fora | 43.83 → 38.90 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±7.7% | -9.7% | fora | 43.09 → 38.90 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±8.6% | -6.9% | dentro | 41.77 → 38.90 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±8.5% | -9.1% | fora | 42.80 → 38.90 |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±9.2% | -4.8% | dentro | 40.87 → 38.90 |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±9.1% | -6.8% | dentro | 41.73 → 38.90 |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±9.4% | -7.7% | dentro | 42.16 → 38.90 |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±9.8% | -10.8% | fora | 43.60 → 38.90 |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±10.2% | -13.5% | fora | 44.95 → 38.90 |
| Sep 09, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±10.7% | -17.2% | fora | 46.99 → 38.90 |
| Sep 08, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±11.1% | -17.9% | fora | 47.37 → 38.90 |
| Sep 07, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±11.8% | -15.5% | fora | 46.06 → 38.90 |
| Sep 04, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±11.8% | -15.5% | fora | 46.05 → 38.90 |
| Sep 03, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±10.9% | -14.6% | fora | 45.53 → 38.90 |
| Sep 02, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±12.1% | -12.3% | fora | 44.35 → 38.90 |
| Sep 01, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±11.5% | -11.9% | fora | 44.16 → 38.90 |
| Aug 31, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±11.6% | -14.2% | fora | 45.35 → 38.90 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±0.7% | -0.1% | dentro | 39.81 → 39.79 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±2.2% | +0.7% | dentro | 39.52 → 39.79 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±6.1% | -9.0% | fora | 43.74 → 39.79 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±6.0% | -9.2% | fora | 43.83 → 39.79 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±6.2% | -7.7% | fora | 43.09 → 39.79 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±6.9% | -4.8% | dentro | 41.77 → 39.79 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±6.8% | -7.0% | fora | 42.80 → 39.79 |
Os resultados comparam o intervalo registado com o preço de fecho no dia de expiração. A versão do método é indicada por linha quando difere; atual: em-1.0.