UPST 预期波动历史 Upstart Holdings, Inc.
每个交易日收盘后，我们记录期权市场对各到期日的定价——均在结果揭晓前留存。到期日过后，实际结果会附记于原始预估值旁。预估值在事后绝不修改。 如何解读这些统计数据 · 记录开始于 Aug 31, 2026
已解决的比较项93
收盘价处于区间内59%
|实际值| 低于预期值59%
平均预期波动幅度±8.9%
平均|实际|波动幅度8.3%
平均绝对误差3.1pt
隐含与已实现波动率，按到期日
每个到期日：琥珀色轮廓框为最接近到期时记录的预期涨跌幅；实心柱为股票实际涨跌幅。柱形下方标注带符号的具体数值。
预期（已记录）实际
已记录（等待结果）
| 快照 | 到期时间 | DTE | 当时现货价 | 预期涨跌幅 | 区间 | 方法 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 16 | Oct 16 | 0 | 23.48 | ±1.8% | 23.07–23.91 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 14 | Oct 16 | 2 | 22.64 | ±3.2% | 21.93–23.36 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 13 | Oct 16 | 3 | 23.70 | ±4.7% | 22.58–24.82 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 09 | Oct 16 | 7 | 24.01 | ±5.4% | 22.71–25.31 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 08 | Oct 16 | 8 | 24.00 | ±6.7% | 22.39–25.61 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 07 | Oct 16 | 9 | 23.98 | ±6.3% | 22.47–25.50 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 06 | Oct 16 | 10 | 24.02 | ±7.2% | 22.30–25.75 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 05 | Oct 16 | 11 | 24.30 | ±8.2% | 22.32–26.29 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 02 | Oct 16 | 14 | 23.08 | ±9.0% | 21.01–25.15 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 01 | Oct 16 | 15 | 22.61 | ±10.0% | 20.34–24.89 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 23 | Oct 16 | 23 | 25.91 | ±11.8% | 22.87–28.96 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 22 | Oct 16 | 24 | 25.89 | ±11.9% | 22.82–28.96 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 21 | Oct 16 | 25 | 25.68 | ±12.0% | 22.61–28.75 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 18 | Oct 16 | 28 | 25.03 | ±12.3% | 21.95–28.11 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 17 | Oct 16 | 29 | 25.14 | ±13.5% | 21.73–28.54 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 16 | Oct 16 | 30 | 24.84 | ±14.3% | 21.28–28.40 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 15 | Oct 16 | 31 | 25.31 | ±14.3% | 21.68–28.94 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 14 | Oct 16 | 32 | 26.27 | ±15.6% | 22.16–30.38 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 11 | Oct 16 | 35 | 25.68 | ±14.8% | 21.89–29.48 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 10 | Oct 16 | 36 | 25.15 | ±15.1% | 21.36–28.95 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 09 | Oct 16 | 37 | 25.90 | ±16.2% | 21.70–30.10 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 08 | Oct 16 | 38 | 27.04 | ±16.5% | 22.57–31.50 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 07 | Oct 16 | 39 | 28.04 | ±15.9% | 23.59–32.48 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 04 | Oct 16 | 42 | 28.63 | ±16.4% | 23.93–33.34 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 03 | Oct 16 | 43 | 28.75 | ±16.5% | 24.00–33.49 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 02 | Oct 16 | 44 | 28.04 | ±17.0% | 23.27–32.80 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 01 | Oct 16 | 45 | 27.29 | ±17.4% | 22.54–32.04 | em-1.0 |
| Aug 31 | Oct 16 | 46 | 28.82 | ±17.8% | 23.68–33.95 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 16 | Oct 23 | 7 | 23.48 | ±6.7% | 21.92–25.05 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 14 | Oct 23 | 9 | 22.64 | ±6.8% | 21.11–24.18 | em-1.0 |
已归档快照
| 快照 | 已到期 | 预期值 | 实际值 | 在区间内？ | 现货价 → 收盘价 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 09, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±0.6% | +0.4% | 区间内 | 24.01 → 24.10 |
| Oct 08, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±3.3% | +0.4% | 区间内 | 24.00 → 24.10 |
| Oct 07, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±4.0% | +0.5% | 区间内 | 23.98 → 24.10 |
| Oct 06, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±4.3% | +0.3% | 区间内 | 24.02 → 24.10 |
| Oct 05, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±5.0% | -0.8% | 区间内 | 24.30 → 24.10 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±6.0% | +4.4% | 区间内 | 23.08 → 24.10 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±7.1% | +6.6% | 区间内 | 22.61 → 24.10 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±9.9% | -7.0% | 区间内 | 25.91 → 24.10 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±9.8% | -6.9% | 区间内 | 25.89 → 24.10 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±10.3% | -6.2% | 区间内 | 25.68 → 24.10 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±10.7% | -3.7% | 区间内 | 25.03 → 24.10 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±12.0% | -4.1% | 区间内 | 25.14 → 24.10 |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±11.8% | -3.0% | 区间内 | 24.84 → 24.10 |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±12.7% | -4.8% | 区间内 | 25.31 → 24.10 |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±12.8% | -8.2% | 区间内 | 26.27 → 24.10 |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±13.5% | -6.2% | 区间内 | 25.68 → 24.10 |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±13.3% | -4.2% | 区间内 | 25.15 → 24.10 |
| Sep 09, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±13.1% | -7.0% | 区间内 | 25.90 → 24.10 |
| Sep 08, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±14.2% | -10.9% | 区间内 | 27.04 → 24.10 |
| Sep 07, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±15.4% | -14.1% | 区间内 | 28.04 → 24.10 |
| Sep 04, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±15.1% | -15.8% | 区间外 | 28.63 → 24.10 |
| Sep 03, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±14.8% | -16.2% | 区间外 | 28.75 → 24.10 |
| Sep 02, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±15.2% | -14.1% | 区间内 | 28.04 → 24.10 |
| Sep 01, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±15.2% | -11.7% | 区间内 | 27.29 → 24.10 |
| Aug 31, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±16.2% | -16.4% | 区间外 | 28.82 → 24.10 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±1.0% | -1.2% | 区间外 | 23.08 → 22.81 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±3.0% | +0.9% | 区间内 | 22.61 → 22.81 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±7.9% | -12.0% | 区间外 | 25.91 → 22.81 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±7.7% | -11.9% | 区间外 | 25.89 → 22.81 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±8.4% | -11.2% | 区间外 | 25.68 → 22.81 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±8.5% | -8.9% | 区间外 | 25.03 → 22.81 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±10.0% | -9.2% | 区间内 | 25.14 → 22.81 |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±10.4% | -8.2% | 区间内 | 24.84 → 22.81 |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±10.8% | -9.9% | 区间内 | 25.31 → 22.81 |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±11.3% | -13.2% | 区间外 | 26.27 → 22.81 |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±12.8% | -11.2% | 区间内 | 25.68 → 22.81 |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±11.6% | -9.3% | 区间内 | 25.15 → 22.81 |
| Sep 09, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±12.7% | -11.9% | 区间内 | 25.90 → 22.81 |
| Sep 08, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±12.8% | -15.6% | 区间外 | 27.04 → 22.81 |
| Sep 07, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±13.2% | -18.7% | 区间外 | 28.04 → 22.81 |
| Sep 04, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±14.1% | -20.3% | 区间外 | 28.63 → 22.81 |
| Sep 03, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±13.8% | -20.6% | 区间外 | 28.75 → 22.81 |
| Sep 02, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±13.9% | -18.7% | 区间外 | 28.04 → 22.81 |
| Sep 01, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±14.1% | -16.4% | 区间外 | 27.29 → 22.81 |
| Aug 31, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±14.6% | -20.8% | 区间外 | 28.82 → 22.81 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±4.6% | -8.1% | 区间外 | 25.91 → 23.81 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±4.8% | -8.0% | 区间外 | 25.89 → 23.81 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±5.1% | -7.3% | 区间外 | 25.68 → 23.81 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±6.1% | -4.9% | 区间内 | 25.03 → 23.81 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±7.2% | -5.3% | 区间内 | 25.14 → 23.81 |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±8.0% | -4.1% | 区间内 | 24.84 → 23.81 |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±8.5% | -5.9% | 区间内 | 25.31 → 23.81 |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±8.9% | -9.3% | 区间外 | 26.27 → 23.81 |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±10.2% | -7.3% | 区间内 | 25.68 → 23.81 |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±10.2% | -5.3% | 区间内 | 25.15 → 23.81 |
| Sep 09, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±10.7% | -8.1% | 区间内 | 25.90 → 23.81 |
| Sep 08, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±10.6% | -11.9% | 区间外 | 27.04 → 23.81 |
| Sep 07, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±10.6% | -15.1% | 区间外 | 28.04 → 23.81 |
| Sep 04, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±11.6% | -16.8% | 区间外 | 28.63 → 23.81 |
| Sep 03, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±11.4% | -17.2% | 区间外 | 28.75 → 23.81 |
结果通过比较记录的价格区间与到期日收盘价得出。各行显示所用方法版本（与当前版本不同时）；当前版本： em-1.0.