UPST geschiedenis verwachte beweging Upstart Holdings, Inc.
Elke handelsdag na de sluiting leggen we vast wat de optiemarkt inprijst — per vervaldatum, voordat de uitkomst bekend is. Wanneer een vervaldatum passeert, wordt de uitkomst naast de oorspronkelijke schatting vermeld. Schattingen worden achteraf nooit herzien. Hoe deze statistieken te lezen · vastlegging sinds Aug 31, 2026
Vergelijkingen opgelost121
Sluiting binnen bandbreedte64%
|Werkelijk| onder verwacht64%
Gem. verwachte beweging±9.6%
Gem. |werkelijke| beweging8.2%
Gem. abs. fout3.4pt
Impliciet vs. gerealiseerd, per expiratie
Voor elke vervaldatum: de oranje omlijning is de expected move die het dichtst bij de vervaldatum is vastgelegd; de solide balk is wat het aandeel werkelijk heeft gedaan. Getekende waarden staan onder de balken vermeld.
verwacht (vastgelegd)werkelijk
Momenteel vastgelegd (uitkomst nog onbekend)
| Snapshot | Vervalt | DTE | Spot destijds | Expected move | Bereik | Methode |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 19 | Oct 23 | 4 | 23.17 | ±5.7% | 21.86–24.48 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 16 | Oct 23 | 7 | 23.48 | ±6.7% | 21.92–25.05 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 14 | Oct 23 | 9 | 22.64 | ±6.8% | 21.11–24.18 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 13 | Oct 23 | 10 | 23.70 | ±7.3% | 21.96–25.43 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 09 | Oct 23 | 14 | 24.01 | ±9.1% | 21.81–26.20 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 08 | Oct 23 | 15 | 24.00 | ±9.2% | 21.80–26.20 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 07 | Oct 23 | 16 | 23.98 | ±10.1% | 21.56–26.41 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 06 | Oct 23 | 17 | 24.02 | ±9.7% | 21.68–26.36 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 05 | Oct 23 | 18 | 24.30 | ±11.3% | 21.55–27.05 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 02 | Oct 23 | 21 | 23.08 | ±10.6% | 20.64–25.52 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 01 | Oct 23 | 22 | 22.61 | ±11.2% | 20.08–25.15 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 23 | Oct 23 | 30 | 25.91 | ±13.3% | 22.48–29.35 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 22 | Oct 23 | 31 | 25.89 | ±13.3% | 22.45–29.34 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 21 | Oct 23 | 32 | 25.68 | ±14.1% | 22.07–29.29 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 18 | Oct 23 | 35 | 25.03 | ±14.5% | 21.40–28.66 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 17 | Oct 23 | 36 | 25.14 | ±14.9% | 21.39–28.88 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 16 | Oct 23 | 37 | 24.84 | ±15.4% | 21.01–28.67 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 15 | Oct 23 | 38 | 25.31 | ±15.8% | 21.30–29.32 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 14 | Oct 23 | 39 | 26.27 | ±15.7% | 22.13–30.40 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 11 | Oct 23 | 42 | 25.68 | ±17.2% | 21.27–30.09 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 10 | Oct 23 | 43 | 25.15 | ±15.9% | 21.14–29.16 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 09 | Oct 23 | 44 | 25.90 | ±18.0% | 21.23–30.57 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 08 | Oct 23 | 45 | 27.04 | ±17.5% | 22.31–31.76 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 07 | Oct 23 | 46 | 28.04 | ±18.4% | 22.88–33.20 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 04 | Oct 23 | 49 | 28.63 | ±18.1% | 23.45–33.81 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 03 | Oct 23 | 50 | 28.75 | ±17.4% | 23.75–33.73 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 19 | Oct 30 | 11 | 23.17 | ±8.8% | 21.12–25.22 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 16 | Oct 30 | 14 | 23.48 | ±9.6% | 21.24–25.73 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 14 | Oct 30 | 16 | 22.64 | ±9.1% | 20.59–24.70 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 13 | Oct 30 | 17 | 23.70 | ±9.9% | 21.35–26.05 | em-1.0 |
Vastgelegde snapshots
| Snapshot | Verlopen | Verwacht | Werkelijk | Binnen bereik? | Spot → slotkoers |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 16, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±1.8% | +0.3% | binnen | 23.48 → 23.56 |
| Oct 14, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±3.2% | +4.0% | buiten | 22.64 → 23.56 |
| Oct 13, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±4.7% | -0.6% | binnen | 23.70 → 23.56 |
| Oct 09, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±5.4% | -1.9% | binnen | 24.01 → 23.56 |
| Oct 08, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±6.7% | -1.8% | binnen | 24.00 → 23.56 |
| Oct 07, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±6.3% | -1.8% | binnen | 23.98 → 23.56 |
| Oct 06, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±7.2% | -1.9% | binnen | 24.02 → 23.56 |
| Oct 05, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±8.2% | -3.0% | binnen | 24.30 → 23.56 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±9.0% | +2.1% | binnen | 23.08 → 23.56 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±10.0% | +4.2% | binnen | 22.61 → 23.56 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±11.8% | -9.1% | binnen | 25.91 → 23.56 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±11.9% | -9.0% | binnen | 25.89 → 23.56 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±12.0% | -8.3% | binnen | 25.68 → 23.56 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±12.3% | -5.9% | binnen | 25.03 → 23.56 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±13.5% | -6.3% | binnen | 25.14 → 23.56 |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±14.3% | -5.2% | binnen | 24.84 → 23.56 |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±14.3% | -6.9% | binnen | 25.31 → 23.56 |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±15.6% | -10.3% | binnen | 26.27 → 23.56 |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±14.8% | -8.3% | binnen | 25.68 → 23.56 |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±15.1% | -6.3% | binnen | 25.15 → 23.56 |
| Sep 09, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±16.2% | -9.0% | binnen | 25.90 → 23.56 |
| Sep 08, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±16.5% | -12.9% | binnen | 27.04 → 23.56 |
| Sep 07, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±15.9% | -16.0% | buiten | 28.04 → 23.56 |
| Sep 04, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±16.4% | -17.7% | buiten | 28.63 → 23.56 |
| Sep 03, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±16.5% | -18.0% | buiten | 28.75 → 23.56 |
| Sep 02, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±17.0% | -16.0% | binnen | 28.04 → 23.56 |
| Sep 01, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±17.4% | -13.7% | binnen | 27.29 → 23.56 |
| Aug 31, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±17.8% | -18.2% | buiten | 28.82 → 23.56 |
| Oct 09, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±0.6% | +0.4% | binnen | 24.01 → 24.10 |
| Oct 08, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±3.3% | +0.4% | binnen | 24.00 → 24.10 |
| Oct 07, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±4.0% | +0.5% | binnen | 23.98 → 24.10 |
| Oct 06, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±4.3% | +0.3% | binnen | 24.02 → 24.10 |
| Oct 05, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±5.0% | -0.8% | binnen | 24.30 → 24.10 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±6.0% | +4.4% | binnen | 23.08 → 24.10 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±7.1% | +6.6% | binnen | 22.61 → 24.10 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±9.9% | -7.0% | binnen | 25.91 → 24.10 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±9.8% | -6.9% | binnen | 25.89 → 24.10 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±10.3% | -6.2% | binnen | 25.68 → 24.10 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±10.7% | -3.7% | binnen | 25.03 → 24.10 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±12.0% | -4.1% | binnen | 25.14 → 24.10 |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±11.8% | -3.0% | binnen | 24.84 → 24.10 |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±12.7% | -4.8% | binnen | 25.31 → 24.10 |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±12.8% | -8.2% | binnen | 26.27 → 24.10 |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±13.5% | -6.2% | binnen | 25.68 → 24.10 |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±13.3% | -4.2% | binnen | 25.15 → 24.10 |
| Sep 09, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±13.1% | -7.0% | binnen | 25.90 → 24.10 |
| Sep 08, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±14.2% | -10.9% | binnen | 27.04 → 24.10 |
| Sep 07, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±15.4% | -14.1% | binnen | 28.04 → 24.10 |
| Sep 04, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±15.1% | -15.8% | buiten | 28.63 → 24.10 |
| Sep 03, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±14.8% | -16.2% | buiten | 28.75 → 24.10 |
| Sep 02, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±15.2% | -14.1% | binnen | 28.04 → 24.10 |
| Sep 01, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±15.2% | -11.7% | binnen | 27.29 → 24.10 |
| Aug 31, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±16.2% | -16.4% | buiten | 28.82 → 24.10 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±1.0% | -1.2% | buiten | 23.08 → 22.81 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±3.0% | +0.9% | binnen | 22.61 → 22.81 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±7.9% | -12.0% | buiten | 25.91 → 22.81 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±7.7% | -11.9% | buiten | 25.89 → 22.81 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±8.4% | -11.2% | buiten | 25.68 → 22.81 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±8.5% | -8.9% | buiten | 25.03 → 22.81 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±10.0% | -9.2% | binnen | 25.14 → 22.81 |
Uitkomsten vergelijken de geregistreerde bandbreedte met de slotkoers op de expiratiedag. De methodversie wordt per rij weergegeven waar deze afwijkt; huidig: em-1.0.