ULTA 预期波动历史 Ulta Beauty, Inc.
每个交易日收盘后，我们记录期权市场对各到期日的定价——均在结果揭晓前留存。到期日过后，实际结果会附记于原始预估值旁。预估值在事后绝不修改。 如何解读这些统计数据 · 记录开始于 Aug 31, 2026
已解决的比较项121
收盘价处于区间内79%
|实际值| 低于预期值79%
平均预期波动幅度±5.3%
平均|实际|波动幅度3.3%
平均绝对误差2.9pt
隐含与已实现波动率，按到期日
每个到期日：琥珀色轮廓框为最接近到期时记录的预期涨跌幅；实心柱为股票实际涨跌幅。柱形下方标注带符号的具体数值。
预期（已记录）实际
已记录（等待结果）
| 快照 | 到期时间 | DTE | 当时现货价 | 预期涨跌幅 | 区间 | 方法 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 19 | Oct 23 | 4 | 591.62 | ±3.0% | 574.07–609.17 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 16 | Oct 23 | 7 | 592.94 | ±3.7% | 570.84–615.04 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 14 | Oct 23 | 9 | 592.42 | ±4.1% | 567.97–616.87 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 13 | Oct 23 | 10 | 579.00 | ±4.6% | 552.35–605.65 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 09 | Oct 23 | 14 | 570.37 | ±4.9% | 542.42–598.32 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 08 | Oct 23 | 15 | 564.21 | ±5.0% | 535.81–592.61 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 07 | Oct 23 | 16 | 545.48 | ±5.3% | 516.68–574.28 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 06 | Oct 23 | 17 | 547.29 | ±5.5% | 517.29–577.29 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 05 | Oct 23 | 18 | 542.72 | ±5.7% | 511.82–573.62 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 02 | Oct 23 | 21 | 543.69 | ±5.9% | 511.79–575.59 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 01 | Oct 23 | 22 | 537.73 | ±6.0% | 505.43–570.03 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 23 | Oct 23 | 30 | 563.00 | ±7.1% | 523.20–602.80 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 22 | Oct 23 | 31 | 563.00 | ±7.1% | 523.20–602.80 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 21 | Oct 23 | 32 | 550.39 | ±7.4% | 509.74–591.04 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 18 | Oct 23 | 35 | 543.42 | ±7.8% | 500.82–586.02 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 17 | Oct 23 | 36 | 545.59 | ±7.9% | 502.24–588.93 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 16 | Oct 23 | 37 | 537.81 | ±8.2% | 493.46–582.16 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 15 | Oct 23 | 38 | 550.25 | ±8.4% | 504.00–596.50 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 14 | Oct 23 | 39 | 548.25 | ±8.7% | 500.65–595.85 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 11 | Oct 23 | 42 | 539.84 | ±8.4% | 494.49–585.19 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 10 | Oct 23 | 43 | 541.86 | ±9.2% | 492.11–591.61 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 09 | Oct 23 | 44 | 542.00 | ±9.1% | 492.85–591.15 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 08 | Oct 23 | 45 | 564.12 | ±9.1% | 512.87–615.37 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 07 | Oct 23 | 46 | 564.12 | ±9.1% | 512.87–615.37 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 04 | Oct 23 | 49 | 548.50 | ±9.3% | 497.25–599.75 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 19 | Oct 30 | 11 | 591.62 | ±4.6% | 564.17–619.07 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 16 | Oct 30 | 14 | 592.94 | ±5.2% | 561.84–624.04 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 14 | Oct 30 | 16 | 592.42 | ±5.4% | 560.22–624.62 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 13 | Oct 30 | 17 | 579.00 | ±5.5% | 547.10–610.90 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 09 | Oct 30 | 21 | 570.37 | ±5.7% | 537.82–602.92 | em-1.0 |
已归档快照
| 快照 | 已到期 | 预期值 | 实际值 | 在区间内？ | 现货价 → 收盘价 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 16, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±1.1% | +0.0% | 区间内 | 592.94 → 592.94 |
| Oct 14, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±2.5% | +0.1% | 区间内 | 592.42 → 592.94 |
| Oct 13, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±2.5% | +2.4% | 区间内 | 579.00 → 592.94 |
| Oct 09, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±3.5% | +4.0% | 区间外 | 570.37 → 592.94 |
| Oct 08, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±3.9% | +5.1% | 区间外 | 564.21 → 592.94 |
| Oct 07, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±4.0% | +8.7% | 区间外 | 545.48 → 592.94 |
| Oct 06, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±4.1% | +8.3% | 区间外 | 547.29 → 592.94 |
| Oct 05, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±4.7% | +9.3% | 区间外 | 542.72 → 592.94 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±4.9% | +9.1% | 区间外 | 543.69 → 592.94 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±5.5% | +10.3% | 区间外 | 537.73 → 592.94 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±6.6% | +5.3% | 区间内 | 563.00 → 592.94 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±6.6% | +5.3% | 区间内 | 563.00 → 592.94 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±6.4% | +7.7% | 区间外 | 550.39 → 592.94 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±6.8% | +9.1% | 区间外 | 543.42 → 592.94 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±7.1% | +8.7% | 区间外 | 545.59 → 592.94 |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±7.2% | +10.3% | 区间外 | 537.81 → 592.94 |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±7.6% | +7.8% | 区间外 | 550.25 → 592.94 |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±7.9% | +8.2% | 区间外 | 548.25 → 592.94 |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±7.8% | +9.8% | 区间外 | 539.84 → 592.94 |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±8.2% | +9.4% | 区间外 | 541.86 → 592.94 |
| Sep 09, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±8.6% | +9.4% | 区间外 | 542.00 → 592.94 |
| Sep 08, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±8.2% | +5.1% | 区间内 | 564.12 → 592.94 |
| Sep 07, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±8.2% | +5.1% | 区间内 | 564.12 → 592.94 |
| Sep 04, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±8.7% | +8.1% | 区间内 | 548.50 → 592.94 |
| Sep 03, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±8.8% | +7.5% | 区间内 | 551.75 → 592.94 |
| Sep 02, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±8.8% | +7.6% | 区间内 | 550.92 → 592.94 |
| Sep 01, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±8.9% | +8.6% | 区间内 | 545.77 → 592.94 |
| Aug 31, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±9.3% | +10.7% | 区间外 | 535.47 → 592.94 |
| Oct 09, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±0.7% | +0.0% | 区间内 | 570.37 → 570.37 |
| Oct 08, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±1.8% | +1.1% | 区间内 | 564.21 → 570.37 |
| Oct 07, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±2.4% | +4.6% | 区间外 | 545.48 → 570.37 |
| Oct 06, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±2.4% | +4.2% | 区间外 | 547.29 → 570.37 |
| Oct 05, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±2.9% | +5.1% | 区间外 | 542.72 → 570.37 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±3.4% | +4.9% | 区间外 | 543.69 → 570.37 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±4.1% | +6.1% | 区间外 | 537.73 → 570.37 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±5.2% | +1.3% | 区间内 | 563.00 → 570.37 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±5.2% | +1.3% | 区间内 | 563.00 → 570.37 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±5.7% | +3.6% | 区间内 | 550.39 → 570.37 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±5.8% | +5.0% | 区间内 | 543.42 → 570.37 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±6.2% | +4.5% | 区间内 | 545.59 → 570.37 |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±6.3% | +6.1% | 区间内 | 537.81 → 570.37 |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±6.4% | +3.7% | 区间内 | 550.25 → 570.37 |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±6.7% | +4.0% | 区间内 | 548.25 → 570.37 |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±7.0% | +5.7% | 区间内 | 539.84 → 570.37 |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±7.5% | +5.3% | 区间内 | 541.86 → 570.37 |
| Sep 09, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±7.6% | +5.2% | 区间内 | 542.00 → 570.37 |
| Sep 08, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±7.6% | +1.1% | 区间内 | 564.12 → 570.37 |
| Sep 07, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±7.6% | +1.1% | 区间内 | 564.12 → 570.37 |
| Sep 04, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±8.0% | +4.0% | 区间内 | 548.50 → 570.37 |
| Sep 03, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±8.2% | +3.4% | 区间内 | 551.75 → 570.37 |
| Sep 02, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±8.2% | +3.5% | 区间内 | 550.92 → 570.37 |
| Sep 01, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±8.2% | +4.5% | 区间内 | 545.77 → 570.37 |
| Aug 31, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±8.4% | +6.5% | 区间内 | 535.47 → 570.37 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±1.1% | +0.0% | 区间内 | 543.69 → 543.69 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±2.0% | +1.1% | 区间内 | 537.73 → 543.69 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±4.6% | -3.4% | 区间内 | 563.00 → 543.69 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±4.6% | -3.4% | 区间内 | 563.00 → 543.69 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±4.4% | -1.2% | 区间内 | 550.39 → 543.69 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±4.8% | +0.1% | 区间内 | 543.42 → 543.69 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±5.1% | -0.3% | 区间内 | 545.59 → 543.69 |
结果通过比较记录的价格区间与到期日收盘价得出。各行显示所用方法版本（与当前版本不同时）；当前版本： em-1.0.