ULTA historial de movimiento esperado Ulta Beauty, Inc.
Cada día de negociación, tras el cierre, registramos lo que el mercado de opciones estaba descontando — por vencimiento, antes de conocerse el resultado. Cuando un vencimiento finaliza, el resultado se anota junto a la estimación original. Las estimaciones nunca se revisan a posteriori. Cómo interpretar estas estadísticas · registrando desde Aug 31, 2026
Comparaciones resueltas121
Cierre dentro del rango79%
|Real| por debajo de lo esperado79%
Movimiento esperado promedio±5.3%
Movimiento |real| promedio3.3%
Error medio abs.2.9pt
Implícita vs realizada, por vencimiento
Para cada vencimiento: el contorno ámbar es el movimiento esperado registrado más cerca del vencimiento; la barra sólida es lo que la acción hizo realmente. Los valores con signo aparecen bajo las barras.
esperado (registrado)real
Registrado actualmente (pendiente de resultado)
| Instantánea | Vence | DTE | Precio entonces | Movimiento esperado | Rango | Método |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 19 | Oct 23 | 4 | 591.62 | ±3.0% | 574.07–609.17 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 16 | Oct 23 | 7 | 592.94 | ±3.7% | 570.84–615.04 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 14 | Oct 23 | 9 | 592.42 | ±4.1% | 567.97–616.87 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 13 | Oct 23 | 10 | 579.00 | ±4.6% | 552.35–605.65 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 09 | Oct 23 | 14 | 570.37 | ±4.9% | 542.42–598.32 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 08 | Oct 23 | 15 | 564.21 | ±5.0% | 535.81–592.61 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 07 | Oct 23 | 16 | 545.48 | ±5.3% | 516.68–574.28 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 06 | Oct 23 | 17 | 547.29 | ±5.5% | 517.29–577.29 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 05 | Oct 23 | 18 | 542.72 | ±5.7% | 511.82–573.62 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 02 | Oct 23 | 21 | 543.69 | ±5.9% | 511.79–575.59 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 01 | Oct 23 | 22 | 537.73 | ±6.0% | 505.43–570.03 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 23 | Oct 23 | 30 | 563.00 | ±7.1% | 523.20–602.80 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 22 | Oct 23 | 31 | 563.00 | ±7.1% | 523.20–602.80 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 21 | Oct 23 | 32 | 550.39 | ±7.4% | 509.74–591.04 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 18 | Oct 23 | 35 | 543.42 | ±7.8% | 500.82–586.02 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 17 | Oct 23 | 36 | 545.59 | ±7.9% | 502.24–588.93 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 16 | Oct 23 | 37 | 537.81 | ±8.2% | 493.46–582.16 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 15 | Oct 23 | 38 | 550.25 | ±8.4% | 504.00–596.50 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 14 | Oct 23 | 39 | 548.25 | ±8.7% | 500.65–595.85 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 11 | Oct 23 | 42 | 539.84 | ±8.4% | 494.49–585.19 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 10 | Oct 23 | 43 | 541.86 | ±9.2% | 492.11–591.61 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 09 | Oct 23 | 44 | 542.00 | ±9.1% | 492.85–591.15 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 08 | Oct 23 | 45 | 564.12 | ±9.1% | 512.87–615.37 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 07 | Oct 23 | 46 | 564.12 | ±9.1% | 512.87–615.37 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 04 | Oct 23 | 49 | 548.50 | ±9.3% | 497.25–599.75 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 19 | Oct 30 | 11 | 591.62 | ±4.6% | 564.17–619.07 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 16 | Oct 30 | 14 | 592.94 | ±5.2% | 561.84–624.04 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 14 | Oct 30 | 16 | 592.42 | ±5.4% | 560.22–624.62 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 13 | Oct 30 | 17 | 579.00 | ±5.5% | 547.10–610.90 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 09 | Oct 30 | 21 | 570.37 | ±5.7% | 537.82–602.92 | em-1.0 |
Instantáneas resueltas
| Instantánea | Vencido | Esperado | Real | ¿Dentro del rango? | Precio → cierre |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 16, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±1.1% | +0.0% | dentro | 592.94 → 592.94 |
| Oct 14, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±2.5% | +0.1% | dentro | 592.42 → 592.94 |
| Oct 13, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±2.5% | +2.4% | dentro | 579.00 → 592.94 |
| Oct 09, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±3.5% | +4.0% | fuera | 570.37 → 592.94 |
| Oct 08, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±3.9% | +5.1% | fuera | 564.21 → 592.94 |
| Oct 07, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±4.0% | +8.7% | fuera | 545.48 → 592.94 |
| Oct 06, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±4.1% | +8.3% | fuera | 547.29 → 592.94 |
| Oct 05, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±4.7% | +9.3% | fuera | 542.72 → 592.94 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±4.9% | +9.1% | fuera | 543.69 → 592.94 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±5.5% | +10.3% | fuera | 537.73 → 592.94 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±6.6% | +5.3% | dentro | 563.00 → 592.94 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±6.6% | +5.3% | dentro | 563.00 → 592.94 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±6.4% | +7.7% | fuera | 550.39 → 592.94 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±6.8% | +9.1% | fuera | 543.42 → 592.94 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±7.1% | +8.7% | fuera | 545.59 → 592.94 |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±7.2% | +10.3% | fuera | 537.81 → 592.94 |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±7.6% | +7.8% | fuera | 550.25 → 592.94 |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±7.9% | +8.2% | fuera | 548.25 → 592.94 |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±7.8% | +9.8% | fuera | 539.84 → 592.94 |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±8.2% | +9.4% | fuera | 541.86 → 592.94 |
| Sep 09, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±8.6% | +9.4% | fuera | 542.00 → 592.94 |
| Sep 08, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±8.2% | +5.1% | dentro | 564.12 → 592.94 |
| Sep 07, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±8.2% | +5.1% | dentro | 564.12 → 592.94 |
| Sep 04, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±8.7% | +8.1% | dentro | 548.50 → 592.94 |
| Sep 03, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±8.8% | +7.5% | dentro | 551.75 → 592.94 |
| Sep 02, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±8.8% | +7.6% | dentro | 550.92 → 592.94 |
| Sep 01, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±8.9% | +8.6% | dentro | 545.77 → 592.94 |
| Aug 31, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±9.3% | +10.7% | fuera | 535.47 → 592.94 |
| Oct 09, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±0.7% | +0.0% | dentro | 570.37 → 570.37 |
| Oct 08, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±1.8% | +1.1% | dentro | 564.21 → 570.37 |
| Oct 07, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±2.4% | +4.6% | fuera | 545.48 → 570.37 |
| Oct 06, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±2.4% | +4.2% | fuera | 547.29 → 570.37 |
| Oct 05, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±2.9% | +5.1% | fuera | 542.72 → 570.37 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±3.4% | +4.9% | fuera | 543.69 → 570.37 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±4.1% | +6.1% | fuera | 537.73 → 570.37 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±5.2% | +1.3% | dentro | 563.00 → 570.37 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±5.2% | +1.3% | dentro | 563.00 → 570.37 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±5.7% | +3.6% | dentro | 550.39 → 570.37 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±5.8% | +5.0% | dentro | 543.42 → 570.37 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±6.2% | +4.5% | dentro | 545.59 → 570.37 |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±6.3% | +6.1% | dentro | 537.81 → 570.37 |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±6.4% | +3.7% | dentro | 550.25 → 570.37 |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±6.7% | +4.0% | dentro | 548.25 → 570.37 |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±7.0% | +5.7% | dentro | 539.84 → 570.37 |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±7.5% | +5.3% | dentro | 541.86 → 570.37 |
| Sep 09, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±7.6% | +5.2% | dentro | 542.00 → 570.37 |
| Sep 08, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±7.6% | +1.1% | dentro | 564.12 → 570.37 |
| Sep 07, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±7.6% | +1.1% | dentro | 564.12 → 570.37 |
| Sep 04, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±8.0% | +4.0% | dentro | 548.50 → 570.37 |
| Sep 03, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±8.2% | +3.4% | dentro | 551.75 → 570.37 |
| Sep 02, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±8.2% | +3.5% | dentro | 550.92 → 570.37 |
| Sep 01, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±8.2% | +4.5% | dentro | 545.77 → 570.37 |
| Aug 31, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±8.4% | +6.5% | dentro | 535.47 → 570.37 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±1.1% | +0.0% | dentro | 543.69 → 543.69 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±2.0% | +1.1% | dentro | 537.73 → 543.69 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±4.6% | -3.4% | dentro | 563.00 → 543.69 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±4.6% | -3.4% | dentro | 563.00 → 543.69 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±4.4% | -1.2% | dentro | 550.39 → 543.69 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±4.8% | +0.1% | dentro | 543.42 → 543.69 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±5.1% | -0.3% | dentro | 545.59 → 543.69 |
Los resultados comparan el rango registrado con el precio de cierre en el día de expiración. La versión del método se muestra por fila cuando difiere; actual: em-1.0.