UBER 预期波动历史 Uber Technologies, Inc.
每个交易日收盘后，我们记录期权市场对各到期日的定价——均在结果揭晓前留存。到期日过后，实际结果会附记于原始预估值旁。预估值在事后绝不修改。 如何解读这些统计数据 · 记录开始于 Aug 31, 2026
已解决的比较项121
收盘价处于区间内76%
|实际值| 低于预期值76%
平均预期波动幅度±5.5%
平均|实际|波动幅度3.7%
平均绝对误差2.6pt
隐含与已实现波动率，按到期日
每个到期日：琥珀色轮廓框为最接近到期时记录的预期涨跌幅；实心柱为股票实际涨跌幅。柱形下方标注带符号的具体数值。
预期（已记录）实际
已记录（等待结果）
| 快照 | 到期时间 | DTE | 当时现货价 | 预期涨跌幅 | 区间 | 方法 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 19 | Oct 23 | 4 | 70.11 | ±3.1% | 67.94–72.28 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 16 | Oct 23 | 7 | 70.18 | ±3.6% | 67.62–72.74 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 14 | Oct 23 | 9 | 69.20 | ±4.2% | 66.31–72.08 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 13 | Oct 23 | 10 | 71.22 | ±4.8% | 67.82–74.62 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 09 | Oct 23 | 14 | 71.39 | ±4.9% | 67.90–74.89 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 08 | Oct 23 | 15 | 70.01 | ±5.2% | 66.34–73.69 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 07 | Oct 23 | 16 | 68.47 | ±5.3% | 64.83–72.11 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 06 | Oct 23 | 17 | 69.15 | ±5.5% | 65.33–72.97 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 05 | Oct 23 | 18 | 69.52 | ±5.9% | 65.42–73.62 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 02 | Oct 23 | 21 | 68.01 | ±6.1% | 63.88–72.14 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 01 | Oct 23 | 22 | 68.00 | ±6.4% | 63.65–72.36 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 23 | Oct 23 | 30 | 70.03 | ±7.7% | 64.61–75.44 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 22 | Oct 23 | 31 | 70.06 | ±7.7% | 64.64–75.47 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 21 | Oct 23 | 32 | 70.95 | ±7.9% | 65.38–76.53 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 18 | Oct 23 | 35 | 70.63 | ±8.3% | 64.78–76.47 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 17 | Oct 23 | 36 | 70.97 | ±8.5% | 64.95–76.99 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 16 | Oct 23 | 37 | 71.17 | ±9.5% | 64.40–77.94 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 15 | Oct 23 | 38 | 71.60 | ±9.3% | 64.97–78.22 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 14 | Oct 23 | 39 | 72.54 | ±9.5% | 65.66–79.41 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 11 | Oct 23 | 42 | 71.71 | ±9.8% | 64.69–78.73 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 10 | Oct 23 | 43 | 72.64 | ±10.3% | 65.17–80.12 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 09 | Oct 23 | 44 | 71.34 | ±9.4% | 64.61–78.06 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 08 | Oct 23 | 45 | 73.39 | ±10.1% | 65.97–80.81 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 07 | Oct 23 | 46 | 75.70 | ±10.4% | 67.80–83.60 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 04 | Oct 23 | 49 | 75.76 | ±10.4% | 67.86–83.66 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 03 | Oct 23 | 50 | 75.90 | ±11.5% | 67.17–84.62 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 19 | Oct 30 | 11 | 70.11 | ±4.8% | 66.78–73.44 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 16 | Oct 30 | 14 | 70.18 | ±5.3% | 66.47–73.89 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 14 | Oct 30 | 16 | 69.20 | ±5.7% | 65.25–73.15 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 13 | Oct 30 | 17 | 71.22 | ±5.7% | 67.16–75.27 | em-1.0 |
已归档快照
| 快照 | 已到期 | 预期值 | 实际值 | 在区间内？ | 现货价 → 收盘价 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 16, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±0.6% | +0.2% | 区间内 | 70.18 → 70.35 |
| Oct 14, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±2.2% | +1.7% | 区间内 | 69.20 → 70.35 |
| Oct 13, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±2.6% | -1.2% | 区间内 | 71.22 → 70.35 |
| Oct 09, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±3.3% | -1.5% | 区间内 | 71.39 → 70.35 |
| Oct 08, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±3.8% | +0.5% | 区间内 | 70.01 → 70.35 |
| Oct 07, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±3.9% | +2.7% | 区间内 | 68.47 → 70.35 |
| Oct 06, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±4.1% | +1.7% | 区间内 | 69.15 → 70.35 |
| Oct 05, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±4.6% | +1.2% | 区间内 | 69.52 → 70.35 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±4.6% | +3.4% | 区间内 | 68.01 → 70.35 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±5.3% | +3.5% | 区间内 | 68.00 → 70.35 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±6.9% | +0.5% | 区间内 | 70.03 → 70.35 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±6.9% | +0.4% | 区间内 | 70.06 → 70.35 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±6.9% | -0.8% | 区间内 | 70.95 → 70.35 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±7.1% | -0.4% | 区间内 | 70.63 → 70.35 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±7.6% | -0.9% | 区间内 | 70.97 → 70.35 |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±8.1% | -1.2% | 区间内 | 71.17 → 70.35 |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±8.2% | -1.7% | 区间内 | 71.60 → 70.35 |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±8.3% | -3.0% | 区间内 | 72.54 → 70.35 |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±8.5% | -1.9% | 区间内 | 71.71 → 70.35 |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±9.2% | -3.2% | 区间内 | 72.64 → 70.35 |
| Sep 09, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±8.9% | -1.4% | 区间内 | 71.34 → 70.35 |
| Sep 08, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±9.2% | -4.1% | 区间内 | 73.39 → 70.35 |
| Sep 07, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±9.4% | -7.1% | 区间内 | 75.70 → 70.35 |
| Sep 04, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±9.4% | -7.1% | 区间内 | 75.76 → 70.35 |
| Sep 03, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±9.8% | -7.3% | 区间内 | 75.90 → 70.35 |
| Sep 02, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±9.7% | -8.3% | 区间内 | 76.68 → 70.35 |
| Sep 01, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±9.8% | -6.5% | 区间内 | 75.28 → 70.35 |
| Aug 31, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±9.7% | -7.1% | 区间内 | 75.74 → 70.35 |
| Oct 09, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±0.7% | +0.2% | 区间内 | 71.39 → 71.51 |
| Oct 08, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±1.5% | +2.1% | 区间外 | 70.01 → 71.51 |
| Oct 07, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±1.9% | +4.4% | 区间外 | 68.47 → 71.51 |
| Oct 06, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±2.4% | +3.4% | 区间外 | 69.15 → 71.51 |
| Oct 05, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±2.9% | +2.9% | 区间内 | 69.52 → 71.51 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±3.2% | +5.1% | 区间外 | 68.01 → 71.51 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±3.7% | +5.2% | 区间外 | 68.00 → 71.51 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±5.8% | +2.1% | 区间内 | 70.03 → 71.51 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±5.8% | +2.1% | 区间内 | 70.06 → 71.51 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±5.9% | +0.8% | 区间内 | 70.95 → 71.51 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±5.9% | +1.3% | 区间内 | 70.63 → 71.51 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±6.6% | +0.8% | 区间内 | 70.97 → 71.51 |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±6.9% | +0.5% | 区间内 | 71.17 → 71.51 |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±7.3% | -0.1% | 区间内 | 71.60 → 71.51 |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±7.3% | -1.4% | 区间内 | 72.54 → 71.51 |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±7.5% | -0.3% | 区间内 | 71.71 → 71.51 |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±8.4% | -1.6% | 区间内 | 72.64 → 71.51 |
| Sep 09, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±8.2% | +0.2% | 区间内 | 71.34 → 71.51 |
| Sep 08, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±8.4% | -2.6% | 区间内 | 73.39 → 71.51 |
| Sep 07, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±7.9% | -5.5% | 区间内 | 75.70 → 71.51 |
| Sep 04, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±7.9% | -5.6% | 区间内 | 75.76 → 71.51 |
| Sep 03, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±9.0% | -5.8% | 区间内 | 75.90 → 71.51 |
| Sep 02, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±8.9% | -6.7% | 区间内 | 76.68 → 71.51 |
| Sep 01, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±8.9% | -5.0% | 区间内 | 75.28 → 71.51 |
| Aug 31, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±8.8% | -5.6% | 区间内 | 75.74 → 71.51 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±0.2% | +0.1% | 区间内 | 68.01 → 68.11 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±1.5% | +0.2% | 区间内 | 68.00 → 68.11 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±4.6% | -2.7% | 区间内 | 70.03 → 68.11 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±4.6% | -2.8% | 区间内 | 70.06 → 68.11 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±4.6% | -4.0% | 区间内 | 70.95 → 68.11 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±4.8% | -3.6% | 区间内 | 70.63 → 68.11 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±5.4% | -4.0% | 区间内 | 70.97 → 68.11 |
结果通过比较记录的价格区间与到期日收盘价得出。各行显示所用方法版本（与当前版本不同时）；当前版本： em-1.0.